Copper strengthens as optimism returns over Iran peace deal despite US attack on Iranian missile launchers and boats in self-defence strikes

 

MiFID II exempt information – see disclaimer below

 

Anglo Asian Mining (AAZ LN)  – FY25 highlights return to profitability with Demirli and Gilar up and running

Anglesey Mining (AYM LN)  – New CEO appointed

Ariana Resources (AAU LN)  – Updated MRE and PFS at Dokwe as Xinhai Mining continues its support

Atalaya Mining (ATYM LN)  – Production recovering from weather related setbacks in Q1

Celsius Resources (CLA LN)  – Efforts to progress the MKB project, Philippines

Galantas Gold* (GAL LN)  – Quarterly results as C$85m fundraising due to close imminently

Kendrick Resources (KEN LN)  – Equity raise

Minera Alamos (MAI CN)  – Pan acquisition sees first quarter of gold production, guidance retained

Mineral Resources (MIN AU) – A$490m Mt Marion expansion FID driven by strong lithium prices

 

Copper ($13,644/t) strengthens as optimism returns over Iran peace deal despite US attack on Iranian missile launchers and boats in self-defence strikes

  • Copper prices have rebounded from last week’s weakness, up $300/t and touching weekly highs of $13,717/t this morning.
  • The wider metals complex was lifted yesterday by a weaker dollar, which fell in line with US Treasury yields as crude slumped.
  • Trafigura reportedly withdrew c.51kt of copper from LME warehouses on Friday, the largest order since 2013. (Bloomberg)
  • COMEX premiums remain high as tariff concerns persist in the US, encouraging traders to move metal into the US.
  • This has been a persistent theme for the past year, reducing available copper in Asia and supporting prices.

 

China met coal prices rise following Shanxi mine disaster

  • Dalian coking coal futures climbed 8% yesterday following the deadliest Chinese mining accident since 2009.
  • A gas explosion at a coal mine in Shanxi province killed 82 people on Friday at the privately owned Liushenyu mine.
  • The central government has reportedly committed to a ‘rigorous and thorough investigation’ and ‘impose severe penalties in accordance with laws and regulations./
  • Coking coal prices rose on reports that Shanxi province, China’s prolific coking coal belt,
  • Mysteel reports all 25 coal mines in Qinyuan county have been ordered to suspend operations following the accident, impacting c.4% of China’s coking coal output.
  • Other provinces have begun inspections to prevent potential gas leaks going forward.
  • Shanxi accounts for c.25% of national coking coal output.

 

Guinea moves to restrict bauxite exports in an effort to boost prices

  • Guinea, which supplies c.1/3rd of global bauxite production, is set to announce export controls of the key alumina feedstock next month. (Bloomberg)
  • Production rose 25% last year to 183mt, rising again this year.
  • Bauxite prices have fallen significantly as a result, averaging c.$56/t from Guinea in 1Q26.
  • More African countries are boosting export restrictions in a bid to boost revenue, with the DRC and Zimbabwe restricting cobalt and lithium prices respectively.
  • Guinea is pushing for more alumina refining capacity in country, and has tabled a potential aluminium smelter.

 

Coal mine gas explosion in China: https://www.itv.com/news/2026-05-23/at-least-82-killed-in-coal-mine-gas-explosion-in-china-local-media-reports

Guardian Metal Resources – Tungsten & Pilot Mountain mine : https://invest.investorshub.com/innovationreport/

IG TV Gold report: https://youtu.be/PliTL-z0n54?si=HvvFdldYY7oHK7s7

 

Dow Jones Industrials +0.58%at50,580
Nikkei 225 -0.25%at64,996
HK Hang Seng +0.24%at25,668
Shanghai Composite -0.09%at4,149
US 10 Year Yield (bp change) -4.2at4.52

 

Currencies

US$1.1630/eur vs 1.1601/eur previous. Yen 159.16/$ vs 159.02/$. SAr 16.338/$ vs 16.546/$. $1.347/gbp vs $1.342/gbp. 0.716/aud vs         0.711/aud. CNY 6.786/$ vs 6.803/$.

Dollar Index 99.08 vs   99.35 previous.

 

Economics

US – Brent prices jumped on reported of the US hitting Iranian ships and missile launch sites

  • “Targets included missile launch sites and Iranian boats attempting to emplace mines,” the US Central Command said.
  • US administration described strikes as defensive in nature with President saying that peace talks were “proceeding nicely”.
  • Brent is climbing towards the $100 mark recovering some of its losses related to expectations for US/Iran preliminary peace agreement.
  • Preliminary agreement might include Tehran allowing gradually reopening the strait and remove mines.
  • It would not charge ships the transit fee for the duration of the 60d period.

 

US / Iran – US air strikes against Iranian missile sites and boats

  • The news flow and rhetoric over the weekend was focussed on peace but the last night’s US airstrikes show the US means business.
  • A deal is still possible with talks planned today between Iran's top negotiator and foreign minister and the prime minister of Qatar according to Marco Rubio.
  • Rubio said the chokepoint would reopen “one way or another”.
  • Trump is adamant that Iran will give up its enriched uranium and with it any intention of developing a nuclear weapon.
  • Netanyahu is reported to be pushing for tougher terms and is highly concerned over proposed deal urging Trump to launch another round of strikes.
  • Trump told Israeli Channel 12: "I won't sign an agreement if it's not good for Israel".
  • Trump has a call last night with the leaders of Pakistan, the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Jordan, Turkey, and Egypt regarding Iran.
  • the IRGC claimed to have downed an MQ-9 drone and fired at a fighter jet that had entered the Iranian airspace.
  • Trump says it should be mandatory for Saudi, UAE, Qatar, Pakistan, Egypt, Turkey, Bahrain and Jordan to sign up to the Abraham Accords as part of any peace deal.
  • The declaration affirms the shared Abrahamic heritage of Judaism, Islam, and Christianity and advocates for interfaith dialogue, religious tolerance, and regional peace.
  • Senator Lindsey Graham warned that if the conflict ends while Iran still retains the ability to threaten the Strait of Hormuz and Gulf oil infrastructure, Tehran will be perceived as a dominant regional force requiring a diplomatic solution.
  • Graham said such a perception would mark a major shift in the regional balance of power and could become a long-term problem for Israel.
  • We see the airstrikes as a pre-emptive move to stop Iran from firing missiles at shipping in and around the Strait of Hormuz and at its near neighbours.
  • The final draft MoU includes ending the regional war on all fronts, including Lebanon, freeing several billions of dollars in frozen Iranian assets, lifting the U.S. naval blockade, and opening the Strait of Hormuz under “Iranian management.” (Al Jazeera)
  • Mark Levin: “History teaches us that peace deals are best made after the enemy is defeated or surrendered.”

 

Iran - Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, issued a public message warning Israel of its limited “existence” stating Israel won't exist in the next 15 years

  • The statement simply gives Israel yet another reason to target Khamenei and push for greater regime change.

 

Lebanon – Hezbollah and Israel continue to attack each other in Lebanon

  • The IDF has hit >70 Hezbollah infrastructure sites since Monday.
  • The ceasefire remains in name only.

 

China – Trump’s invitation to The Temple of Heaven with Prexident Xi was an important symbol

  • The US is looking for peace and a fair deal with China which China struggles to find buyers for its manufactured goods without US customers.
  • If China withdraws support for Russia and Iran then peace in Ukraine and Iran will likely be achieved much faster.

 

ECB – The central bank should hike rates at the June meeting even if there is a quick resolution to the US/Iran war, ECB Executive Board member says

  • “Given the size and the persistence of the current shock, looking through is no longer an option in my view,” Isabel Schnabel told Reuters.
  • “From today’s perspective, I think a rate hike in June will be needed.”

 

Russia/Ukraine – Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov warned the US to evacuate American citizens and diplomats from Kyiv ahead of planned strikes on the capital

 

Precious metals:

Gold US$4,532/oz vs US$4,515/oz previous

   Gold ETFs 98.6moz vs 98.7moz previous

Platinum US$1,952/oz vs US$1,930/oz previous

Palladium US$1,380/oz vs US$1,359/oz previous

Silver US$76.4/oz vs US$74.9/oz previous

   Silver ETFs 794.4moz vs 794.8moz previous

Rhodium US$9,400/oz vs US$9,700/oz previous

 

Base metals:

Copper US$13,673/t vs US$13,489/t previous

Aluminium US$3,671/t vs US$3,613/t previous

Nickel US$18,700/t vs US$18,640/t previous

Zinc US$3,593/t vs US$3,534/t previous

Lead US$2,020/t vs US$1,982/t previous

Tin US$54,915/t vs US$53,000/t previous

 

Energy:

Oil US$98.2/bbl vs US$106.3/bbl previous

  • Brent crude oil prices edged below $100/bbl as comments from President Trump stating that an agreement with Iran is within reach offset military strikes targeting Iranian missile launch sites and mine-laying boats near the Strait of Hormuz.
  • The US Baker Hughes rig count rose 7 to 558 units last week (-8 or -1% y/y), as oil rigs rose 10 to 425 units (-30 y/y) and gas rigs fell 3 to 125 units (+17 y/y), with Texas adding 10 to 255 rigs (-11 y/y) and New Mexico lost 3 to 93 rigs (+1 y/y).

Natural Gas €47.3/MWh vs €49.4/MWh previous

Uranium Futures $84.7/lb vs $84.6/lb previous

 

Bulk:

Iron Ore 62% Fe Spot (Singapore) US$105.2/t vs US$105.6/t

Chinese steel rebar 25mm US$491.6/t vs US$489.5/t

HCC FOB Australia US$239.0/t vs US$239.0/t

Thermal coal swap Australia FOB US$137.0/t vs US$137.5/t

 

Other:  

Cobalt LME 3m US$56,290/t vs US$56,290/t

NdPr Rare Earth Oxide (China) US$101,163/t vs US$101,430/t

Lithium carbonate 99% (China) US$25,862/t vs US$25,946/t

China Spodumene Li2O 6%min CIF US$2,630/t vs US$2,630/t

Ferro-Manganese European Mn78% min US$1,035/t vs US$1,035/t

China Tungsten APT 88.5% FOB US$1,625/mtu vs US$1,693/mtu

China Tantalum Concentrate 30% CIF US$233/lb vs US$213/mtu

China Graphite Flake -194 FOB US$415/t vs US$420/t

Europe Vanadium Pentoxide 98% US$6.0/lb vs US$6.0/lb

Europe Ferro-Vanadium 80% US$27.8/kg vs US$28.4/kg

China Ilmenite Concentrate TiO2 US$239/t vs US$242/t

US Titanium Dioxide TiO2 >98% US$2,809/t vs US$2,809/t

China Rutile Concentrate 95% TiO2 US$1,157/t vs US$1,154/t

Spot CO2 Emissions EUA Price US$65.1/t vs US$65.1/t

Brazil Potash CFR Granular Spot US$405.0/t vs US$405.0/t

Germanium China 99.99% US$3,825.0/kg vs US$3,725.0/kg

China Gallium 99.99% US$400.0/kg vs US$400.0/kg

Europe Molybdenum Oxide 57% US$30.0/lb vs US$30.0/lb

 

EV & Battery new:

 

 Overnight ChangeWeekly Change Overnight ChangeWeekly Change
BHP0.4%2.8%Freeport-McMoRan-0.5%-1.6%
Rio Tinto0.3%5.4%Vale0.1%1.0%
Glencore0.0%-0.8%Newmont Mining-0.6%-1.3%
Anglo American0.0%1.4%Fortescue0.4%0.3%
Antofagasta0.0%3.8%Teck Resources4.4%7.2%

 

Company news:

Anglo Asian Mining (AAZ LN) 314p, Mkt Cap £360m – FY25 highlights return to profitability with Demirli and Gilar up and running

  • Revenue $123m (2024: $40m) reflecting production start at Demirli and Gilar, full year of operations at Gedabek and higher gold/copper prices.
  • Gold production of 25.1koz (2024: 15.1koz); copper production of 7.9kt (2024: 0.4kt).
  • Bullion and concentrate sales - $68m and $55m (2024: $37m and $3m).
  • Realised gold and copper prices - $3,441/oz and $9,797/t, respectively (2024: $2,390/oz and $9,267/t).
  • No AISC reported for 2025 with Demirli and Gilar launching operations mid-year (no AISC reported for 2024 given AGL/FLO plants temporary suspension).
  • EBIT $30m (2024: $19m) including $11m in development/exploration assets impairments (2024: $2m), most relating to Gedabek ($5m) and Ordubad ($3m).
  • EBITDA $64m (2024: -$5m) excluding impairments.
  • PAT $18m (2024: -$18m).
  • CFO $47m (2024: $9m).
  • FCF $20m (2024: -$2m).
  • Capex $25.9m (2024: $8.9m) including $11.2m spent at Demirli and $3.5m at Gilar.
  • Exploration expenditure $1.3m (2024: $2.1m) including $0.9m (2024: $0.7m) spent at Gedabek.
  • Net cash $3m (2024: net debt $15m)
  • The Company announced a final 4USc dividend resuming payments following a pause on temporary suspension of processing facilities in 2023/24.
  • Resumption of dividend payments reflects stronger balance sheet as well as higher production and gold/copper prices.
  • FY26 production guidance reiterated (100%):
    • Copper 20.0-25.0kt (2025: 7.9kt)
    • Gold 28.0-33.0koz (2025: 25.1koz)
  • AISC guidance:
    • $6,800-7,800/t for copper (post PSA)
    • $1,500-1,800/oz for gold (post PSA)
  • Copper AISC excludes annual Demirli plant lease fee that adds extra ~$1,000/t if accounted for.
  • Consultants are expected to be appointed to undertake Xarxar and Garadaq feasibility studies.

 

Anglesey Mining (AYM LN) 4.2p, Mkt Cap £2.7m – New CEO appointed

  • Anglesey Mining reports the appointment of a new CEO, Andrew Fulton.
  • Mr. Fulton is described as “a Chartered Mining Engineer (C.Eng, FIMMM) with more than 30 years of global experience in developing and managing mineral projects”.
  • The company also describes to application of a satellite-based exploration technique to help assess “Volcanogenic Massive Sulphide ("VMS") extensions in and around the Company's Parys Mountain site … [and] … delineate surface targets for follow-up ground exploration”.
  • Anglesey Mining also confirms that following its capital restructuring “has only c.£100,000 debt remaining”.

 

Ariana Resources (AAU LN) 2.03p, Mkt Cap £49m – Updated MRE and PFS at Dokwe as Xinhai Mining continues its support

  • Ariana Resources has provided revised mineral resources and reserves estimates and an updated Preliminary Feasibility Study (PFS) for its Dokwe gold project in Zimbabwe.
  • The new minerals resource increases the Dokwe estimate by 13% to a combined ‘Measured, Indicated & Inferred’ resource of ~62.5mt at an average grade of 0.8g/t hosting 1.6moz of gold.
  • The estimate covers both the Dokwe North and Dokwe Central deposits with ~1.5moz (60.2mt at an average grade of 0.77g/t gold) at Dokwe North and a further 100koz (2.2mt at a grade of 1.4g/t gold) at Dokwe Central.
  • Approximately 83% of contained gold at the resource at Dokwe North is classified as ‘Measured & Inferred’ while 94% of the Dokwe Central resource is ‘Indicated’ with the balance ‘Inferred’.
  • Ore Reserves at Dokwe North has increased by ~42% to 1.13moz with high grade ore (11.0mt at an average grade of 1.9g/t – 674kz) and medium grade ore (16.3mt at a grade of 0.57g/t – 298koz) comprising around 85% of the total.
  • The PFS envisages two operating phases with open-pit mining over an initial 12 year period producing around 80kozpa from the processing of ~2.5mtpa of ore followed by a further 8 years of processing stockpiled ore to produce around 20kozpa.
  • Using a gold price of US$4,250/oz, the PFS estimates that pre-production capital investment of US$164m generates an after-tax NPV10% of US$740m and IRR of 92% from production of gold at a C1 cost of US$1,685/oz
  • Describing the new MRE and PFS as “a major milestone for the Company” Managing Director, Dr. Kerim Sener, said that “there are immediate opportunities to further increase Ore Reserves through the conversion of Resources at Dokwe Central and recently reported extensions to Dokwe North and Dokwe Central identified in recent RC drilling”.
  • He said that “Geotechnical drilling and the metallurgical testwork programme for the DFS are expected to lead to further improvements to the Ore Reserves during H2 2026
  • In a second announcement today, Ariana Resources confirms the issue of a second tranche of CDIs to Hongkong Xinhai Mining Services as announced in December 2025 when Xinhai provided A$8m to progress metallurgical work for the Definitive Feasibility Study (DFS) for its Dokwe gold project in Zimbabwe.
  • The company has applied “for an aggregate of 34,666,660 new ordinary shares … to be admitted to trading on AIM”.
  • We estimate that the shares represent around 1.3% of the enlarged company.
  • CDIs representing 33,333,330 shares are issued to Xinhai, with CDIs representing an additional 1,333,330 shares have been issued to Hongmen Capital Holdings.
  • In addition, CDI Options representing 16,666,670 shares are issued to Xinhai and CDI Options representing a further 666,670 share have been issued to Hongmen.
  • Xinhai Mining has “an established track record in Zimbabwe, having completed the feasibility, design and construction of a 2 Mtpa lithium beneficiation plant … [and the ] … construction of a gold processing plant in Gweru, in central Zimbabwe”.

Conclusion: Increased resources at Dokwe may grow again later in the year as drilling progresses while the revised PFS describes an 80kozpa gold operation over the initial 12-year mine life with cash costs of US$1,685/oz

 

Atalaya Mining (ATYM LN) 834.5p, Mkt Cap £1,214m – Production recovering from weather related setbacks in Q1

  • Atalaya Mining reports a profit of €28.3m for the 3 months to 31st March (Q1 2025 - €30.5m) and a closing cash balance of €266m.
  • Quarterly EBITDA was €48.0m (Q1 2025 - €52.5m).
  • The financial performance reflects the production of 9,939t of copper in 60,310t of copper concentrate at an average cash cost of US$2.52/lb and US$3.20/lb on an all-in-sustaining cost basis.
  • Comparable Q1 production in 2025 was 14,291t of copper in 80,170t of copper concentrate at an average cash cost of US$2.25/lb and US$2.74/lb on an all-in-sustaining cost basis.
  • When it reported 2026 Q1 production performance in April, Atalaya Mining explained the impact of unusually severe rain which restricted access to higher grade areas of the pit required the processing of lower grade ore from stockpiles or more easily accessible areas reducing the available grades but confirmed that “In the coming quarters, we expect to recover a portion of the production shortfall”.
  • Atalaya Mining confirms that since the end of the quarter “copper production has exceeded plans and therefore a portion of Q1 2026's production shortfall has been recovered” and that it is maintaining its “original guidance range of 50,000 to 54,000 tonnes of copper”.
  • Alluding to the impact of the Middle East conflicts and “Assuming the prices of diesel and explosives remain at current levels for the remainder of FY2026, the impact on Cash Costs and AISC would be US$0.15 - 0.20/lb higher than the FY2026 guidance … Cash Costs of US$2.60 - 2.90/lb and AISC of US$3.10 - 3.40/lb copper payable”.
  • CEO, Alberto Lavandeira, described the quarterly result as a “solid financial performance in Q1 2026 despite our lower production during the quarter” and confirmed the recent production improvements.
  • He said that “Looking ahead, we are increasingly confident in the outlook for both our business and the copper market … [and said that despite ] … ongoing geopolitical uncertainty, copper demand remains robust, while the industry's supply response continues to face challenges from operational issues at major copper mines globally”.

Conclusion: Atalaya Mining’s production is recovering from weather related production setbacks in Q1, and the company is maintaining its full-year production guidance. The impact of the Middle East conflict is, however, expected to push costs above the previously issued guidance range.

 

Celsius Resources (CLA LN) 0.46p, Mkt Cap £17m – Efforts to progress the MKB project, Philippines

  • In a move which seems intended to resolve a complex interconnection of disputes surrounding the development of the its Maalinao-Caigutan-Biyog Copper-Gold Project (MCB Project) in the Philippines and the control of its operating company Makilala Mining Company, Celsius Resources is proposing that all parties “suspend arbitration”and implement a “two-company approach” to the development.
    • Makilala Mining Company Inc. (MMCI) will hold the Mineral Production Sharing Agreement (MPSA) and
    • “the intended mineral processing company for the MCB Project … PDEP - will purchase the ore from MMCI; own, develop and operate the processing plant and other ancillary equipment and assets”
  • The proposed resolution aims to implement “an ore supply agreement between MMCI and PDEP”.
  • The resolution mechanism suggests that Sodor Inc, who’s proposed ~US$5m acquisition of a 60% interest in Makilala Mining expired in February, agrees to “pay Celsius US$5 million for a 60% interest in MMCI”.
  • PMR Holdings, advised by former Celsius Resources Chairman, Julito Sarmiento, who resigned in November 2026, and Sodor Inc will hold “a 30% share of economics in the MCB Project, with Celsius retaining a 70% share”.
  • PMR will be “granted 3-month option to subscribe for ~US$38 million for an interest in PDEP”
  • Agreement is subject to conditions including MMCI granting a “3-month option to subscribe for ~US$38 million for an interest in PDEP”.
  • The situation remains unclear with today’s announcement saying that “Notwithstanding multiple follow-up emails, calls and correspondence, Celsius is yet to receive any response or feedback from Sodor, PMR or Mr Sarmiento”.

 

Galantas Gold* (GAL LN) 25p, Mkt Cap £130m – Quarterly results as C$85m fundraising due to close imminently

  • Galantas reports 1Q26 results to March 31st.
  • The Company reports a net loss of $2.3m for the period, with C$1.6m spent on administrative costs and C$0.5m on operation expenses.
  • Company reports a working capital surplus of C$5m.
  • Cash at the end of the period stood at C$11m, up from C$0.7m 1Q25.
  • Galantas is currently undertaking a C$85m capital raise through the issue of 154.5m units at C$0.55/share, consisting of one share and one half of a warrant exercisable at C$0.8/share.
  • There is the option to increase this by an additional C$15m.
  • The fundraise is due to close May 28th.

Conclusion: Galantas is well positioned to advance its two new flagship assets, Indiana and Andacollo. A major capital raise is currently underway, with potential to raise gross proceeds of C$100m. This will set the Company on track to become an exciting multi-asset gold producer in a tier one jurisdiction. Funds will be used to derisk and develop the smaller Indiana underground vein project and the large-scale Andacollo heap leach project. A PEA has been guided for 2Q26 for Indiana, with a PEA also underway for Andacollo. We see Andacollo as a transformational asset for Galantas, with production potential over 90kozpa with competitive capital intensity supported by existing infrastructure. Indiana holds the potential to produce c.15kozpa Au with supportive copper credits from later this year, with drilling underway to target expansion of the existing MRE. Upcoming key catalysts include the closing of the Andacollo transaction and further technical reports as the Company derisks their two new assets.

*SP Angel acts as Broker to Galantas Gold

 

Kendrick Resources (KEN LN) 7.7p, Mkt Cap £26m – Equity raise

  • The Company raised £1.8m at 7p to advance drilling and maiden MRE related work at the Bonya Rare Earth Project, Namibia.
  • The placing price implies no discount to the last closing price (7p).
  • Colib Bird (Executive Chairman) and Martyn Churchhouse (Director) subscribed for 285k (~£20k) shares each.
  • Maiden MRE is targeted for 3Q26.

 

Minera Alamos (MAI CN) C$6.4, Mkt Cap C$691m – Pan acquisition sees first quarter of gold production, guidance retained

  • US-focused gold producer Minera Alamos reports 1Q26 financial results.
  • The Company produced 8.7koz Au over the quarter, selling 9.1koz.
  • Average realised price reported at $4,287/oz, with AISC reported at $1,818/oz.
  • The Pan mine saw 1.2mt mined at 0.274g/t Au over the quarter, with 1.2mt placed on leach pad.
  • Lower grades over the quarter reflect additional pushbacks near the limits of mineralised zones, with a return to normal levels due 2Q26.
  • Revenue generated at $39.2m for EBITDA of $15.4m.
  • Net income reported at $10.8m for EPS of $0.1/share.
  • Growth CAPEX over the quarter stood at $4m.
  • Cash position rose marginally to $46m from C$44m following the final $10m payment to Equinox following the Pan Acquisition.
  • Company reiterates 2026 guidance of:
    • 32-38koz Au at AISC of $1,850-2,000/oz.
  • Minera Alamos secured a $75m RCF, expected to close this month.
  • Company expects to deliver a PFS for its Copperstone asset in May, with FID and mine development planned for the remainder of 2026.

 

Mineral Resources (MIN AU) A$72, Mkt Cap A$14bn –A$490m Mt Marion expansion FID driven by strong lithium prices

  • Mineral Resources and Jiangxi Ganfeng Lithium have taken FID to build a flotation plant and develop underground operation Mt Marion (50/50 JV near Kalgoorlie, WA).
  • A$490m (100% basis) capex includes:
    • Flotation plant A$240m
    • Underground pre-production development A$220m
    • Non-processing infrastructure A$30m
  • The investment to be deployed across FY27 and FY28.
  • The flotation circuit will be built alongside the existing DMS plant to recover fine spodumene currently lost to tailings.
  • Plant recoveries expected to improve towards 70%.
  • Construction is targeted to begin in Q1 FY27, with commissioning and ramp-up scheduled for 2H FY28.
  • From FY28, Mt Marion will operate as a combined OP and UG operation with the latter contributing up to 40% of processing feed.
  • Flotation plant construction and operation to be carried by MinRes’ Mining Services with tendering for an underground mining contract currently in progress.
  • Mt Marion to run at ~600ktpa SC6 post expansion, up from ~500ktpa SC6.
  • The operation will transition to a single SC5 product, eliminating lower-grade SC3.5 output.
  • Payback period is guided at less than one year at the current spot price of approximately US$2,700/t SC6.
  • The news follows MinRes' plans to restart of Bald Hill (~140ktpa SC6) announced earlier this month (placed on C&M Nov24), with restart costs estimated at A$20m incurred in Q4 FY26.

 

 

SP Angel - No.1 for Precious Metals: LSEG StarMine Award for Most Accurate Forecasting in Reuters Polls Q1 2026

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No.1 for Precious Metals: CY 2025

No.1 in Precious Metals: Q1 2025

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No.2 in Base Metals: CY 2024

 

 

Analysts

John Meyer –John.Meyer@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0490

Simon Beardsmore – Simon.Beardsmore@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0484

Sergey Raevskiy –Sergey.Raevskiy@spangel.co.uk - 0203 470 0474

Arthur Parish – Arthur.Parish@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0476

 

Sales

Richard Parlons –Richard.Parlons@spangel.co.uk - 0203 470 0472

Abigail Wayne –Abigail.Wayne@spangel.co.uk - 0203 470 0534

Rob Rees –Rob.Rees@spangel.co.uk - 0203 470 0535

Grant Barker – Grant.Barker@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0471

 

 

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*SP Angel are the No1 integrated nomad and broker by number of mining brokerage clients on AIM according to the AIM Advisers Ranking Guide (joint brokerships excluded)

+SP Angel employees may have previously held, or currently hold, shares in the companies mentioned in this note.

 

Sources of commodity prices 
Gold, Platinum, Palladium, SilverBGNL (Bloomberg Generic Composite rate, London)
Gold ETFs, SteelBloomberg
Copper, Aluminium, Nickel, Zinc, Lead, Tin, CobaltLME
Oil BrentICE
Natural Gas, Uranium, Iron OreNYMEX
Thermal CoalBloomberg OTC Composite
Coking CoalSSY
RRESteelhome
  •  
Lithium Carbonate, Ferro Vanadium, Tungsten, Spodumene, Ferro-Manganese, Graphite, RutileAsian Metal
  

DISCLAIMER

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SPA research ratings – Based on a time horizon of 12 months: Buy = Expected return of more than 15%, Hold = Expected return between -15% and +15%, Sell = Expected return

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