SP Angel . Morning View

SP Angel . Morning View . Wednesday 20.05.26

Gold prices slide further as Treasury yields jump again on Iran impasse

MiFID II exempt information – see disclaimer below

Asante Gold (ASE CN) –Turnaround underway as new management focused on improving operations in Ghana

Aterian* (ATN LN)  – PIK Bond conversion

East Star Resources (EST LN)  – Potential drill target identified at Piket, Kazakhstan

Fulcrum Metals (FMET LN)  – Surface rights at the Teck Hughes project, Ontario

Gem Diamonds (GEMD LN)   – Q1 production running ahead of full year guidance

Kavango Resources* (KAV LN)  – Technical report on Karakubis project, Botswana

Mkango Resources* (MKA LN)  – BUY – Remloy rare earth recycling acquisition

Oriole Resources (ORR LN)  – Step out drilling extends mineralisation by 100m at MB01-S

Serval Resources* (SRVL LN) – Key target horizon identified at PL061, Botswana

Strategic Minerals* (SML LN)  –Progress on the Redmoor project takes centre stage in 2025 results announcement

Gold ($4,480/oz) prices slide further as Treasury yields jump again on Iran impasse

• Gold prices fell again yesterday, sliding below $4,500/oz amid soaring US Treasury yields.
• The global bond sell-off continued yesterday, with US 10 year yields touching 4.67%.
• For context, the 10-year yield stood at 3.95% before the US strikes on Iran.
• Reports suggest China has reduced its Treasury holdings to their lowest levels since 2008, with Japan also trimming exposure.
• Limited progress in negotiations between the White House and Iran has raised concerns over a further delay to the reopening of the Straits of Hormuz.
• This has lifted crude prices and in turn, stoked inflation fears.
• The dollar index has rallied but remains well off late 2024 levels at 108, currently sitting below 99.
• There has been a wider theme of countries facing FX pressures selling gold to support their currencies, as seen with Turkey and the lira in the early stages of the conflict.

Indonesia cracks down on commodity exports amid mounting fiscal pressures

• Indonesia announced this morning plans to tighten export controls on commodities, namely palm oil, coal and ferroalloys.
• Sales will be required to pass through a state company acting as sole exporter.
• Prabawo noted under-invoicing and accounting as causing substantial losses to state revenue.
• The government notes it is looking to increase control over commodities like palm oil, stating ‘we must set our own prices.’
• The rupiah has fallen 6% this year against the dollar.
• The scheme may impact nickel prices, with Indonesia the largest producer globally.
• Tin prices have also rallied today, with Indonesia a major exporter and currently focused on cracking down on illegal mining operations.

Copper ($13,472/t) edges higher as Chile lowers production outlook

• Copper prices are stabilising after a sharp sell-off from near record highs of $14,200/t.
• The move came amid a wider metals drawdown, with COMEX premiums unwinding amid higher US borrowing costs.
• Chile’s state agency Cochilco expects production to fall 2% this year to 5.3mt.
• This represents a downgrade from previous 5.6mt guidance in 2026, with 2027 guidance reduced from 5.97mt to 5.5mt.
• Chile is suffering from ore grade decline and operational constraints.
• Cochilco raised price forecasts for 2026 to $5.55/lb from $4.95/lb.

Rare earth magnets exports from China reach 21kt in April ytd, +18%yoy.

• The increase is attributed to a low base in 2025 with April shipments alone (+95%yoy).
• Monthly exports halved from normal levels (2.6kt vs 5-6kt normally) in April 2025 when China slowed down shipments post Trump announcement of trade tariffs and limitations on sales of semiconductors.
• Shipments only recovered to July following an export restrictions related lull during the April-June period.

IG TV Gold report: https://youtu.be/PliTL-z0n54?si=HvvFdldYY7oHK7s7

Currencies

US$1.1597/eur vs 1.1632/eur previous. Yen 158.97/$ vs 159.08/$. SAr 16.654/$ vs 16.616/$. $1.340/gbp vs $1.340/gbp. 0.711/aud vs         0.714/aud. CNY 6.806/$ vs 6.804/$.

Dollar Index 99.37 vs 99.18 previous.

Economics

China – Monetary authorities keep rates unchanged extending the run from May 2025.

• Inflation has been picking up lately, although, the extent is significantly lower than seen in the US and Europe.
• Headline CPI measure was at 1.2% in April.
• Weak household demand remains an issue with Bloomberg expecting authorities to cut in 2H26.
• 1y Loan Prime Rate: 3.0 / 3.0 / 3.0
• 5y Loan Prime Rate: 3.5 / 3.5 / 3.5

The EU finalised the text of its trade agreement with the US.

• The deal would include the EU eliminating levies on US industrial goods in exchange for a 15% tariff ceiling on its exports.
• The European Parliament and EU countries will now vote to ratify the document.
• Earlier, President Trump threatened that the US would lift import tariffs to 25% from 15% if the deal is not reached by July 4 (US Independence Day).

UK – Inflation slowed to the lowest in a year driven by policy related changes with outlook remaining for CPI to pick up in following months on higher energy costs.

• Higher fuel costs (+23%yoy) were offset by lower household bills as a policy came into effect that reduces the cost of green energy sources.
• The change was part of the Labour government aiming to address the cost of living.
• The effect is expected to be short lived with the headline CPI to pick up in upcoming months.
• Energy price caps that are updated quarterly are expected to jump 13% in July when they are next updated.
• Chancellor Reeves is expected to ask supermarkets to implement voluntary price freezes on food.
• CPI (%mom, Apr / Mar / Est): 0.7 / 0.7 / 0.7
• CPI (%yoy, Apr / Mar / Est): 2.8 / 3.3 / 3.0
• Core CPI (%yoy, Apr / Mar / Est): 2.5 / 3.1 / 2.6
• Services CPI (%yoy, Apr / Mar / Est): 3.2 / 4.5 / 3.5

India – The central bank is reported to have sold small amounts of US$ to shore up the rupiah.

• The currency hit nearly 97.0 this morning and is currently trading at 96.7.
• The rupiah has been under pressure losing ~7% YTD marking it Asia’s worst performer reflecting weakening trading balance amid surging oil prices.

Precious metals:

Gold US$4,483/oz vs US$4,546/oz previous

   Gold ETFs 98.8moz vs 98.7moz previous

Platinum US$1,937/oz vs US$1,971/oz previous

Palladium US$1,379/oz vs US$1,399/oz previous

Silver US$75.1/oz vs US$75.9/oz previous

   Silver ETFs 794.6moz vs 795.6moz previous

Rhodium US$9,750/oz vs US$9,825/oz previous

Base metals:

Copper US$13,487/t vs US$13,545/t previous

Aluminium US$3,608/t vs US$3,570/t previous

Nickel US$18,920/t vs US$18,845/t previous

Zinc US$3,540/t vs US$3,526/t previous

Lead US$1,968/t vs US$1,976/t previous

Tin US$53,400/t vs US$52,745/t previous

Energy:

Oil US$110.1/bbl vs US$110.4/bbl previous

Natural Gas €51.7/MWh vs €50.7/MWh previous

Uranium Futures $84.8/lb vs $85.2/lb previous

Bulk:

Iron Ore 62% Fe Spot (Singapore) US$107.4/t vs US$107.7/t

Chinese steel rebar 25mm US$489.0/t vs US$488.7/t

HCC FOB Australia US$239.0/t vs US$238.5/t

Thermal coal swap Australia FOB US$139.6/t vs US$138.0/t

Other:

Cobalt LME 3m US$56,290/t vs US$56,290/t

NdPr Rare Earth Oxide (China) US$104,555/t vs US$105,087/t

Lithium carbonate 99% (China) US$25,937/t vs US$26,676/t

China Spodumene Li2O 6%min CIF US$2,630/t vs US$2,710/t

Ferro-Manganese European Mn78% min US$1,035/t vs US$1,035/t

China Tungsten APT 88.5% FOB US$1,693/mtu vs US$1,763/mtu

China Tantalum Concentrate 30% CIF US$213/lb vs US$208/mtu

China Graphite Flake -194 FOB US$420/t vs US$420/t

Europe Vanadium Pentoxide 98% US$6.0/lb vs US$6.0/lb

Europe Ferro-Vanadium 80% US$28.4/kg vs US$28.4/kg

China Ilmenite Concentrate TiO2 US$242/t vs US$242/t

US Titanium Dioxide TiO2 >98% US$2,809/t vs US$2,809/t

China Rutile Concentrate 95% TiO2 US$1,154/t vs US$1,154/t

Spot CO2 Emissions EUA Price US$65.1/t vs US$65.1/t

Brazil Potash CFR Granular Spot US$405.0/t vs US$405.0/t

Germanium China 99.99% US$3,725.0/kg vs US$3,725.0/kg

China Gallium 99.99% US$400.0/kg vs US$400.0/kg

Europe Molybdenum Oxide 57% US$30.5/lb vs US$30.0/lb

EV & Battery new:

Company news:

Asante Gold (ASE CN) C$1, Mkt Cap C$807m –Turnaround underway as new management focused on improving operations in Ghana

• Asante Gold reported their 1Q26 results yesterday, alongside some key management changes.
• Asante has appointed Campbell Baird as acting CEO, with Kevin Tomlinson and Michele Muscillo brought in as advisors.
• The Company produced 59.8koz Au at AISC of $3,886/oz.
• Company generated C$300m in revenue for gross profit of C$61m and EBITDA of C$102m.
• Bibiani
  • 773kt processed at 1.39g/t Au and 76% recoveries for 28koz
  • AISC reported at $4,197/oz reflecting higher stripping costs and sustaining CAPEX.
• Company notes continued ramp up from open pit activity at Bibiani, with 18.1mt moved, up 51%yoy.
• Increased mining rates reflect mobilisation of the mining fleet finalised during the quarter.
• Production at Bibiani was impacted by a slippage event at the Main Pit causing lower-than-planned mill feed grades after high-grade ore access was delayed.
• Management is looking to mitigate future dewatering constraints with a permanent dewatering station, while a strengthened fleet at the Russell Pit has accelerated mining activity.
• The Bibiani sulphide treatment plant is supporting increasing recoveries at 76% vs 68% in 1Q25.
• Chirano
  • 938kt processed at 1.26g/t Au and 82% recoveries for 32koz produced
  • AISC reported at $3,587/oz. reflecting lower recovery rates and production and higher SUSEX, with stripping and underground development accelerating.  
• Chirano saw higher mining activities on the back of an expanded contractor fleet and improved equipment availability.
• Underground operations at Chirano have also seen an expanded mining fleet, expected to boost ore tonnes and improve grades.
• Management is undertaking an operational and strategic review at Bibiani and Chirano to support an ‘executable and robust operating plan.’
• Focus going forward will be on tighter operational controls, better integration between teams and efforts to boost recoveries and throughput.
• Asante has agreed to enter an unsecured gold forward agreement with its lenders to support working capital needs and is negotiating an initial $50m deposit.
• The Company has also extended hedging payment obligations of C$55m, agreed a short-term reduction in minimum liquidity requirements and an amendment of material moved/production tests.
• Asante has committed to secure >C$100m of additional funding via debt/equity by 31st August 2026 and has suggested a potential capital raise on the ASX, alongside various debt funding initiatives.

Aterian* (ATN LN) 25.5p, Mkt Cap £4.5m – PIK Bond conversion

• The Company reports a conversion and redemption of a portion of outstanding PIK Bonds.
• The Company is issuing 216,000 shares at 25p each to repay £54k of the PIK Bonds.

*SP Angel acts as Broker to Aterian Plc

East Star Resources (EST LN) 3.85p, Mkt Cap £20m – Potential drill target identified at Piket, Kazakhstan

• East Star Resources reports that early-stage geological mapping and geochemical exploration at its Piket licence in Kazakhstan has identified a potential copper/gold porphyry or epithermal target on the Symbyl 2 prospect.
• Geochemical soil sampling “has outlined a 2km x 2km multi-element anomaly at the Symbyl 2 Prospect with coherent Au-Mo-Bi-Sn-W anomalism and gold values up to 0.2g/t Au”.
• Follow-up exploration “is likely to include detailed mapping and systematic sampling of historic trench material and additional rock chip sampling over the defined anomalies”.
• CEO, Alex Walker, welcomed the “progress made at Piket” which he said validates the company’s exploration strategy and said that East Star Resources is “looking forward to the next phase of work to advance the project to drill-ready status”.

Fulcrum Metals (FMET LN) 8.75p, Mkt Cap £13m – Surface rights at the Teck Hughes project, Ontario

·        Fulcrum Metals has agreed to acquire surface rights over a total of 270 acres (approximately 109 hectares) at the Teck Hughes tailings project near Kirkland Lake, Ontario.

·        The company will pay the vendors C$220,000 in cash and grant a 1.5% NSR and the transaction is expected to “close within 30 days”.

·        “Fulcrum retains the right to buy down the NSR to 0.75% for a total payment of CAD$750,000, with a further CAD$500,000 reducing the NSR to 0.5%”.

·        CEO Ryan Mee, described obtaining the surface rights as “an important strategic step … [which provides] … the access and operational certainty needed to advance the project and to further derisk future development”.

Gem Diamonds (GEMD LN) 4.4p, Mkt Cap £6.1m – Q1 production running ahead of full year guidance

• Gem Diamonds reports the production of 21,605 carats of diamonds from its Letšeng mine in Lesotho during the three months to 31st March (Q4 2025 – 20,961 carats).
• Production is derived from the processing of 1.3mt of ore, including ~240kt from the ‘Satellite Pipe’ which is a higher grade orebody than the ‘Main Pipe’ which delivered the majority of the ore.
• We note that the company’s March guidance indicated full-year production from the ‘Satellite Pipe’ was in the range 300-400,000t suggesting that currently it is exceeding expectations.
• Sales of 16,727 carats delivered revenue of US$25.1m at an average price of US$1,501/carat (Q4 2025 – 21,191 carats sold at an average price of US$1,288/carat for revenue of US$27.3m).
• Letšeng produced two diamonds larger than 100 carats during the quarter including a 191.82 carat Type IIa white diamondand a 100.71 carat Type I faint yellow diamond.
• The company confirms that it sold 4 individual diamonds for >US$1m each “generating aggregate revenue of US$9.9 million”and that the “highest price achieved in the Period was US$32 908 per carat for a 52.24 carat white diamond”.
• Gem Diamonds confirms that “All operational and financial metrics, including carats sold, are trending within issued guidance for 2026”. 
• We understand that guidance for 2026 includes the production of 75-78,000 carats from the processing of 5-5.2mt of ore with diamond sales expected in the range 77-80,000 carats, suggesting that Q1 output is tracking ahead of full-year guidance.

Conclusion: Gem Diamonds Q1 production appears to be running ahead of the rate needed to achieve full year guidance with mining rates from the higher grade ‘Satellite Pipe’ exceeding the full year guidance at this stage.

Kavango Resources* (KAV LN) 0.8p, Mkt Cap £33m – Technical report on Karakubis project, Botswana

• Zimbabwean gold producer Kavango Resources has completed metallurgical testwork at Hillside.
• Kavango is working on derisking the 50tpd CIL plant at Hillside, aiming to upgrade capacity in due course.
• Testwork was conducted on a blend of ore from the Nightshift and Bill’s Luck.
• Company reports overall recoveries >95% in lab conditions and expects real-world conditions of 90-93%.
• 100% of Bill’s Luck gold identified as non-refractory, with 91% of Bill’s Luck sample noted to be free-milling.
• Gravity recoveries reported at 50-90%.
• Reagent and energy consumption rates reported to be within normal ranges.

Conclusion: Kavango is conducting key derisking workstreams to advance the Hillside gold project. Gold recoveries from conventional methods from Nightshift and Bill’s Luck ore are expected to be within the 90-93% range. Management notes the results boost their confidence in advancing the project and building out the various resource bases to ramp up gold production. The 50tpd is set to be operational imminently after which the Company will explore options for plant expansion.

*An SP Angel Analyst holds shares in Kavango

Mkango Resources* (MKA LN) 45p, Mkt Cap £173m – Remloy rare earth recycling acquisition

BUY

• The Company signed an asset purchase agreement with Heraeus Amloy Technologies to acquire its Remloy rare earth recycling business.
• The Company is paying €8m in cash including €5m payable on closing (expected within 3m) and €3m in two years after closing.
• The initial €5m payment to be funded from existing cash balance.
• The Company raised £12.5m earlier in April.
• Remloy operates a recycling facility in Bitterfeld, Germany.
• The facility uses a melting process (medium loop recycling) to process end of life rare earth magnets and produce NdFeB alloy powders for the bonded and hot deformed magnet products.
• The process expands the product range and complements HyProMag short loop process that produces sintered magnets.
• Current capacity is 500tpa NdFeB alloy per year with a ramp up to nameplate expected over the next few years.
• Production test runs are underway for customer samples with first commercial sales of NdFeB alloy powder products targeted by YE26.
• The facility hosts more than 300t in rare earth magnet and alloy feedstock ready for processing.
• Acquisition completion is expected in the summer 2026.

Conclusion: The company is growing rare earth magnet recycling capacities, expanding product range to now include sintered, bonded and hot deformed magnets as well as adding to engineering expertise of the Group with the acquisition of the Remloy recycling facility in Germany. Adiditionally, the deal provides access to 300t of rare earth magnet and alloy stockpiles. The facility complements the HPMS production facility in Pforzheim, Germany, as the team pursues the strategy to unlock local sources of NdFeB supply from recycling.

*SP Angel acts as nomad and broker to Mkango Resources

Oriole Resources (ORR LN) 0.33p, Mkt Cap £15.6m – Step out drilling extends mineralisation by 100m at MB01-S

• Oriole Resources, the Cameroonian gold explorer, reports assay results from the Mbe South deposit.
• The Company is conducting a step-out diamond drilling programme at MBO1-S.
• Highlights yielded:
  • MBDD041: 1m at 59g/t Au from 58m, 10.5m at 2.46g/t Au from 94m, 1.1m at 5.64g/t Au from 88m, 2m at 3g/t Au from 133m
  • MBDD040: 3m at 2.82g/t Au from 215m, 3m at 2.54g/t Au from 41m, 4.8m at 0.96g/t Au from 54m
  • MBDD042: 1m at 2.53g/t Au from 134m
• Hole MBDD040 has extended mineralisation by 100m to 600m.
• The Company has now drilled 70% of its 10 hole, 2,500m programme.
• Oriole plans an updated MRE for MB01-S in 3Q26

Serval Resources* (SRVL LN) 27p, Mkt Cap £9.4m – Key target horizon identified at PL061, Botswana

CLICK FOR PDF

• Serval Resources, the Namibian and Botswana focused copper explorer, reports additional geophysics results from their Botswanan prospects.
• Serval has conducted a ground-based geophysics programme at its PL061 project, which lies north-east and on strike to Cobre’s Ngami project.
• The survey was intended to detect and support spatial definition of regionally mapped Ngwako Pan and D’Kar contacts.
• Identifying the contact zone between the Ngwako Pan and D’Kar Formation is the key to identifying potential copper-silver mineralisation.
• The survey has identified a northeast-southwest trending zone of potential faulting and shearing, with volcanic units identified to the north.
• The southern section is considered to host the D’Kar and Ngwako Pan formations, with thicker sediment cover noted from results.
• The survey has refined previously identified regional mapping, with the magnetic contact shifting southwards by c.270m.
• Going forwards, Serval will conduct additional geophysics methods including EM and ERT to better define the target horizon.

Conclusion: More important geophysics work from Serval, who are working across their Botswana copper licences to identify the key target horizons for drilling. The Company believes today’s results suggest the presence of the Ngwako Pan/D’Kar Formation contact, offering prospectivity for copper-silver mineralisation at PL061. Further geophysics work will be completed to refine the geological model before drilling.  

*SP Angel acts as Nomad and Broker to Serval

Strategic Minerals* (SML LN) 4.95p, Mkt Cap £143m –Progress on the Redmoor project takes centre stage in 2025 results announcement

• As it advances its Redmoor tungsten/tin/copper project in Cornwall through pre-feasibility work, Strategic Minerals reports a 2025 operating profit of $0.7m (2024 - $2.1m).
• The company ascribes the reduced operating profit to “a non-cash share based payment expense ($0.6m) … [as well as] … reduced Cobre profits ($0.3m), costs associated with the Board restructuring and increased Group wide activity levels including investment in the Redmoor Tungsten-Tin-Copper Project in Cornwall”.
• Strategic Minerals highlights the $2.1m expenditure during the year at Redmoor, partially offset by $0.8m grant funding, where the first drilling since 2018 contributed to the updated mineral resource estimate (MRE) of 17.4mt at an average grade of 0.49% WO3, 0.17% tin, 0.44% copper and 5.8g/t silver released in March 2026.
• So far during 2026, assisted by two fundraisings totalling £8.7m ($11.7m), drilling is continuing at Redmoor in 2026 with a planned 16,000m programme forming part of the pre-feasibility work alongside a wider work programme including a productive re-logging and re-assaying effort on historic drilling which has delivered “an average 9.2% uplift in tungsten grades”.
• The 2026 drilling has confirmed the “discovery of a new mineralised structure ("North Tin Zone") outside the existing deposit, with intercepts including 4.00m @ 0.25% Sn”.
• The company has previously discussed plans to deploy additional drilling capacity to Redmoor as soon as the required regulatory consents are received.
• Elsewhere, the Cobre magnetite operation in New Mexico “recorded its 3rd highest annual ore sales in 14 years with 61,279 tons (2024: 70,658 tons) sold to a diversified customer base … [generating] … approximately $4.23m (2024: $4.7m)”.
• The company confirms receipt of A$250,000 for the sale of its Leigh Creek copper project in South Australia with an outstanding A$1.75m due to complete the transaction.
• Executive Chairman, Charles Manners, described 2025 as “a transformational year” for Strategic Minerals as it progressed the Redmoor project “supported by strong operational performance and cash flow at the Cobre magnetite operation in New Mexico”.
• He described the Redmoor project as “now widely recognised as one of the highest grade undeveloped tungsten projects in the world … [and confirmed Strategic Minerals’ determination] … to advance Redmoor at an ever greater pace through a Pre-Feasibility study and on towards Production”.

Conclusion: Strategic Minerals reiterates its determination to accelerate progress at its Redmoor project with drilling and other pre-feasibility study workstreams underway and additional drilling capacity lined up to accelerate the programme.

*SP Angel acts as Nomad and broker to Strategic Minerals

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Analysts

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Sales

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*SP Angel are the No1 integrated nomad and broker by number of mining brokerage clients on AIM according to the AIM Advisers Ranking Guide (joint brokerships excluded)

+SP Angel employees may have previously held, or currently hold, shares in the companies mentioned in this note.

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