VietNam Holding Ltd (VNH) , the London-listed investment company focused on Vietnamese equities, has published a new white paper from fund manager Dynam Capital examining the country’s banking sector and its role in financing Vietnam’s next phase of economic development.
The paper highlights structural opportunities from Vietnam’s continued modernisation, urbanisation and digitalisation, alongside rising demand for credit to fund infrastructure and other large-scale projects.
Dynam Capital said the banking investment case is evolving beyond financial inclusion and credit penetration, with digital ecosystems, diversified financial products and non-interest income becoming increasingly important. Non-interest income grew at a 20.2% compound annual growth rate over the past decade, ahead of net interest income at 16.7%, while its contribution to total operating income rose from 19% in 2015 to 24% in 2025.
However, the manager identified funding as a growing constraint. Credit growth reached 19.1% year-on-year in 2025, compared with deposit growth of 12.1%. By July 2026, credit had grown 8.98% year-to-date, against deposit growth of 5.8%, leaving a funding gap of VND2,300–2,700 trillion in the first half of the year.
Dynam Capital said this represents a structural shortage of stable, long-term funding rather than a systemic liquidity crunch. Banks have increasingly relied on interbank funding and certificates of deposit, while also accessing international markets to extend funding maturities.
The paper sees substantial credit demand ahead, with total social investment estimated at VND38.5 quadrillion (~US$1.47 trillion) over 2026–30. Banks with strong capital bases, diversified funding sources and the ability to finance large projects are expected to be best positioned to benefit.
Dynam Capital also highlighted sector consolidation, with stronger banks supporting the restructuring of weaker institutions and receiving higher credit growth quotas. It identified MBBank, VPBank, Techcombank and Vietcombank as its conviction picks across growth capacity, funding strength and earnings sustainability.
As at 31 August 2026, banks represented almost 40% of Dynam Capital’s public equity portfolios, with five banks among its ten largest holdings.
View from Vox
Vietnam’s banking sector offers significant growth potential, but the funding squeeze makes stock selection increasingly important. Banks with strong deposits, capital, digital ecosystems and asset-quality discipline appear best placed to capture infrastructure-led credit demand while protecting returns.