SP Angel . Morning View . Wednesday 06.05.26

MiFID II exempt information – see disclaimer below

Cobra Resources (COBR LN)  – Key issues for MD at forthcoming drinks and Q&A

DPM Metals (DPM CN)  – Strong cash generation continues as Vares tracking for 850ktpa

Guardian Metal Resources (GMET LN)  – Resource expansion opportunities at the Pilot Mountain tungsten project, Nevada

Jubilee Metals Group (JLP LN)  – Expanding copper output in Zambia

Pan American Silver (PAAS CN)  – Ramping up shareholder returns as free cash flow rises

Panther Metals (PALM LN)  – Preparations for drilling the Obonga project, Ontario

Zanaga Iron Ore (ZIOC LN)  – Updated costing analysis for DRI product quality

Gold ($4,700/oz) stages strong rally as White House cools Iran rhetoric US dollar index falls and China returns from holiday

• Gold prices have rallied 3% this morning, following a sharp sell-off in the wake of a strike on a US warship over the weekend.
• The metal has rallied c.$200/oz since lows touched on Monday after Rubio spoke in the White House.
• The US Dollar Index falls to 98.12 from 98.45 yesterday
• Oil is falling and treasuries are rallying on reports the US and Iran are close to a peace deal.
• The deal will reportedly include Iran committing to a moratorium on nuclear enrichment, with the US potentially agreeing to lift sanctions and release substantial frozen Iranian funds.
• The move higher has coincided with the return to work in China following the Labour Day holiday.
• Chinese traders and investors have been active participants in the sustained gold bull market, with increased liquidity likely supporting the sustained rally higher overnight.

Lithium prices continue upwards momentum on tight spodumene feedstock supply

• Lithium prices are pushing higher, with SMM reporting Australian spodumene sales priced at $2,755/t overnight.
• China carbonate prices are climbing, hitting $25,600/t in Shanghai.
• Mysteel reports China carbonate production reached 104kt in April 2025, down 1.1%mom.
• Lower carbonate production is reportedly a result of tight spodumene feedstock supply.
• Carbonate production is expected to be 4% lower in May, with producers cutting production due to low feedstock inventories.
• Elsewhere, Benchmark are reporting China EV sales in Europe are improving as buyers look to reduce reliance on diesel/petrol.

IG TV Gold report: https://youtu.be/PliTL-z0n54?si=HvvFdldYY7oHK7s7

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Currencies

US$1.1730/eur vs 1.1689/eur previous. Yen 156.48/$ vs 157.21/$. SAr 16.480/$ vs 16.774/$. $1.359/gbp vs $1.354/gbp. 0.724/aud vs 0.715/aud.

CNY 6.818/$ vs 6.829/$. Dollar Index 98.12 vs 98.45 previous

Economics

US – The US pauses Hormuz escort mission “Project Freedom” a day after its announcement amid Iran talks.

• Trump says there has been great progress towards a deal with Iran – we are less sure on this!
• Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said the US is pursuing “a policy of maximum pressure” and “expects Iran to submit to their unilateral demands”, which is “impossible” for Tehran. (Aljazeera).
• Last night, Marco Rubio, US Secretary of State, said that the US has completed operation ‘Epic Fury’ and are now focussed on providing a safe passage for ships through the Strait.
• Some commentators suggest the initiative would have allowed just over 10 ships to travel safely through the Strait, compared to ~130 recorded before the war.
• Risk sentiment picked on hopes for positive results from another round of expected talks.
• Despite announcing a ceasefire a month ago, the US failed to reach a peace deal so far.
• Tehran is not seen complying with the ceasefire when it comes to its neighbours with UAE having reported more than a dozen missiles and drones intercepted from Iran.
• An oil facility in Fujairah in the Gulf state was on fire earlier this week following a drone attack.
• Brent futures $106 (-3%), VIX 19.2 (-3%) and DXY 98.1 (-0.4%).

US Puts in place military hardware to restart kinetic action in Iran

• Iran has had time to dig out a number of rocket launchers which were previously buried in missile strikes on their tunnels and silos.
• The US will be monitoring these targets and will be aware of Chinese, crowd funded, initiatives for drones to down US F-35 fighter jets

China – Private sector PMIs surprised on the upside in April as firms absorb a pick up in cots’ inflation.

• RatingDog PMI Services (Apr / Mar / Est): 52.6 / 52.1 / 52.0
• RatingDog PMI Composite (Apr / Mar / Est): 53.1 / 51.5 / NA

Eurozone – Final PMIs for April reiterate challenging period on the back of higher energy prices and disrupted logistics routes.

• Composite PMIs mostly below the 50 mark – Eurozone (48.8), Germany (48.4), France (47.6), Spain (48.7), Italy (50.5).
• PPI inflation jumped 3.4% mom higher in March to 2.1% yoy on higher energy prices
• Energy prices rose 11.1% across the Eurozone in March
• Intermediate goods prices rose 0.7%, Capital goods rose 0.2%, Durable consumer goods rose 0.3%.

Argentina – Fitch upgrades the nation’s sovereign credit rating to B- from CCC+ with a stable outook.

• The move “reflects structurally improved fiscal and external balances, progress on economic reforms, improved prospects for FX reserve accumulation and our expectation that the government will secure adequate financing to cover debt obligations,”, Fitch said.

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Europe is preparing new trade barriers to combat new wave of Chinese imports

• The EU is inventing new mechanisms to turn back a tide of new Chinese imports

Precious metals:

Gold US$4,666/oz vs US$4,551/oz previous

   Gold ETFs 98.7moz vs 98.7moz previous

Platinum US$2,005/oz vs US$1,984/oz previous

Palladium US$1,519/oz vs US$1,500/oz previous

Silver US$75.8/oz vs US$73.4/oz previous

   Silver ETFs 790.3moz vs 790.5moz previous

Rhodium US$9,950/oz vs US$10,050/oz previous

Base metals:   

Copper US$13,269/t vs US$12,991/t previous

Aluminium US$3,569/t vs US$3,522/t previous

Nickel US$19,895/t vs US$19,460/t previous

Zinc US$3,410/t vs US$3,357/t previous

Lead US$1,983/t vs US$1,958/t previous

Tin US$52,565/t vs US$49,380/t previous

Energy:

Oil US$108.0/bbl vs US$113.5/bbl previous

• International energy prices fell after the US Secretary of State said the ceasefire remains intact and that the initial US-Israeli offensive in Iran was over after achieving its objectives.
• The API estimated US inventory w/w draws of 8.1mb to crude oil (-2.8m expected), 6.1mb to gasoline and 4.6mb to distillate stocks in the week ending May 1.
• European energy prices also decreased on hopes that the US-Iran ceasefire would hold, as France's average nuclear generation fell 2% w/w to 65% of the country’s 61.4GW maximum capacity.

Natural Gas €46.2/MWh vs €47.8/MWh previous

Uranium Futures $86.1/lb vs $85.9/lb previous

Bulk:

Iron Ore 62% Fe Spot (Singapore) US$110.7/t vs US$108.7/t

Chinese steel rebar 25mm US$476.3/t vs US$474.1/t

HCC FOB Australia US$235.0/t vs US$235.0/t

Thermal coal swap Australia FOB US$139.5/t vs US$137.8/t

Other:  

Cobalt LME 3m US$56,290/t vs US$56,290/t

NdPr Rare Earth Oxide (China) US$113,310/t vs US$113,122/t

Lithium carbonate 99% (China) US$25,596/t vs US$24,821/t

China Spodumene Li2O 6%min CIF US$2,520/t vs US$2,450/t

Ferro-Manganese European Mn78% min US$1,035/t vs US$1,035/t

China Tungsten APT 88.5% FOB US$2,343/mtu vs US$2,343/mtu

China Tantalum Concentrate 30% CIF US$193/lb vs US$198/mtu

China Graphite Flake -194 FOB US$420/t vs US$420/t

Europe Vanadium Pentoxide 98% US$5.9/lb vs US$5.8/lb

Europe Ferro-Vanadium 80% US$28.6/kg vs US$28.6/kg

China Ilmenite Concentrate TiO2 US$250/t vs US$250/t

US Titanium Dioxide TiO2 >98% US$2,799/t vs US$2,799/t

China Rutile Concentrate 95% TiO2 US$1,151/t vs US$1,150/t

Spot CO2 Emissions EUA Price US$65.1/t vs US$65.1/t

Brazil Potash CFR Granular Spot US$405.0/t vs US$405.0/t

Germanium China 99.99% US$3,275.0/kg vs US$3,275.0/kg

China Gallium 99.99% US$395.0/kg vs US$395.0/kg

Europe Molybdenum Oxide 57% US$28.5/lb vs US$28.0/lb

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Cobra Resources (COBR LN) 4.72p, Mkt Cap £50m – Key issues for MD at forthcoming drinks and Q&A

• It’s good to see Cobra Resources is doing its bit to keep the drinks and service industries going with their offer of free drinks.
• It is also a brave thing for a company to offer free drinks to the legion of loyal private shareholders who have supported the stock through difficult years.
• But, to be fair, when your shares have risen 4-fold over the 12 months then it should be good reason for a celebration.
• Boland project:
  • Management recently reported assay results from 74 drill holes covering ~3,200m of resource definition drilling at their Boland project in Australia.
  • The aim is to define an initial mineral resource for their aquifer-hosted ionic REE mineralisation.
• Host material:
  • Aquifer-hosted ionic REE mineralisation is a specialized type of regolith-hosted, ionic adsorption clay deposit where rare earth elements have been liberated from parent rocks, transported by groundwater, and adsorbed onto clay minerals in a concentrated and more simply extractable form.
  • Normal hard-rock REE deposits require the liberation of the REE minerals
  •  hard crystals, these deposits consist of positively charged REE ions (\(RE^{3+}\)) loosely adhered to the surface of negatively charged clays (such as kaolinite, halloysite, and illite)..
• Environment:
  • Mining and leaching in aquifers is a bit of an issue in Australia where the integrity of the aquifers is considered hugely important
  • However ISL ‘In-Situ Leaching’ for uranium is run by Heathgate Resources at Four Mile in Australia indicating the process is acceptable to the authorities
  • Other ISL uranium mines include the Honeymoon mine in South Australia which is due to restart and the Beverley uranium mine which was the first ISL uranium mine in Australia.
• Grade:
  • Cobra recently released selected ‘significant intersections from results received to date’ for 30 drill holes
  • The average grade appears to be 884 ppm from the intersections.
  • This compares with other similarish type deposits at:
    • Cerra verde grade ~1,200 ppm
    • Meteoric grade ~2,400ppm.
• Metallurgy:
  • The key question for any REE deposit relates to the metallurgy and extractability of the contained REEs
  • Because nature has naturally leached the REEs over time leading to their entrapment into the ionic clay Cobra should be able to reverse the leach process to recover the REEs.
  • But, nature is not always so kind as to simply give up its REEs and much metallurgical test work is required to choose the best method of REE recovery.
• Recovery rates:
  • We generally assume a >50% recovery rate for ~PH4 acid leach solutions, eg sulphuric acid.
  • And how much sulphuric acid will be required to leach the clay either via ISL or some other extraction process.
• Economics:  Rupert Verco, highlighted in his last press release that
  • “Whilst grade is important, economics will be determined by a combination of permeability, metallurgy, acid generation, and grade”
  • “The ability to organically generate our own sulphuric acid from our geological formations is a project elevator and should not be underestimated”.

Conclusion:  We look forward to the next set of drill results and perhaps more importantly, estimates on the acid consumption and metallurgical recovery rates. Enjoy the drinks!

DPM Metals (DPM CN) C$44, Mkt Cap C$9.7bn – Strong cash generation continues as Vares tracking for 850ktpa

• DPM Metals reports 1Q26 results.
• The company produced 84koz AuEq over the quarter, up 42%yoy, with ore processing up 8%yoy to 733kt.
• AISC reported at $1,686/oz AuEq, up 12%yoy.
• Revenue reported at $310n, up 115%yoy, with EBITDA of $214m, up 184%.
• Free cash flow reported at $203m, with $34m returned to shareholders via dividends and buybacks.
• Company is on track to achieve 2026 production guidance of 265-310koz AuEq at AISC of $1,300-1,450/oz.
• DPM reiterates Vares is on track for 850ktpa processing rate by year-end, with the paste backfill plant due for commissioning in 3Q26.
• Vares contributes 105-130koz AuEq at AISC of $900-1,050/oz for 2026 guidance.
• Coka Rakita construction due early 2027.
• Company held $576m in cash at year end, with an undrawn $400m credit facility.
• Drilling at Dumitru Potok is accelerating, with nine rigs currently active and 20,000m planned.
• On diesel, DPM notes that each $10/bbl change in the oil price adds $11/oz per AuEq ounce sold, with $3/oz from diesel costs and $8/oz from freight charges.

Guardian Metal Resources (GMET LN) 225p, Mkt Cap £418m – Resource expansion opportunities at the Pilot Mountain tungsten project, Nevada

• Guardian Metal Resources has released a progress report on its pre-feasibility study for the wholly-owned Pilot Mountain tungsten project in Nevada and its continuing exploration of additional targets.
• Resource drilling has been completed, and resource evaluation work is continuing in parallel with mine planning for open-pit mining of the Desert Scheelite and Garnet mineral zones.
• Preliminary metallurgical work suggests that the mineralisation is amenable to “a conventional flotation circuit capable of producing a scheelite concentrate”.
• Additional work is continuing on securing permitting, hydrogeological studies and engineering design.
• Pilot Mountain is generally regarded as the United States’ principal tungsten resource hosting, “a pit-constrained MRE of indicated 8,694,000 tonnes at 0.206% WO3 and inferred 1,784,000 tonnes at 0.169% WO3 with Ag-Cu-Zn credits” at the Desert Scheelite deposit.
• Today’s announcement also confirms the completion of infill drilling at the Garnet Zone with “encouraging visual intersections of scheelite mineralisation, consistent with the style of tungsten mineralisation typically encountered at the Desert Scheelite Zone” in several of the drillholes.
• Initial drilling of the Good Hope Zone is underway along with work on site preparation for drilling at the Gunmetal Zone “marking Guardian Metal's first ever drilling at this target zone, an area being evaluated for additional tungsten resources” following permitting of some drill sites.
• Investigation of the Desert Scheelite (East) zone, including condemnation drilling showed “visual scheelite mineralisation … approximately 300m east of the expected eastern open-pit limit”.
• Additional drilling is planned “to further evaluate this target area” and the company confirms that “The main Desert Scheelite deposit remains open to the east, west and down dip, with further exploration drilling targeting these areas expected throughout Q2 and Q3 2026”.

Conclusion: Exploration and PFS work on the Pilot Mountain project is identifying expansion opportunities to expand the mineral resource.

Jubilee Metals Group (JLP LN) 2.8p, Mkt cap £89m – Expanding copper output in Zambia

• Jubilee Metals Group reports a 112% increase in copper production at its Roan concentrator in Zambia for the nine months ending 31st March 2026 to 1999t (2025 – 940t).
• In addition, the Sable refinery delivered a 27% increase in copper cathode production to 957t (2025 – 751t) over the same period.
• The “Molefe Mine operations continue to expand, with 250 162t of ore mined during the period, (181 890t for H1 FY2026), of which 20 064t (9 130t for H1 FY2026) were transported to Sable Refinery at an average Cu grade of 1.84%”.
• The company says that its “Copper production guidance for FY2026 is under review” as it assesses the impact of a “short delay in the commissioning and ramp-up of the expanded concentrate dewatering circuit at Roan … [and updates the] … Molefe Mine plan … to further enlarge Pits 2 and 3 into a single large open-pit which is currently underway and expected to be completed by July 2026”.
• Describing the plans for Molefe, the announcement explains that after it completes the pit enlargement “the mine is expected to ramp-up from approximately 12 000t per quarter to in excess of 30 000t per quarter of Cu reef ore … underpinned by continued access to a widened Cu reef zone, supporting an expected average grade of approximately 1.4% total Cu to surface, prior to the application of targeted ROM ore sorting”.
• Molefe is expected to supply “High-grade material … to the Sable Refinery for direct processing, with low-grade material stockpiled for on-site upgrading and later refining”.
• Acknowledging the delays at Roan, CEO, Leon Coetzer, confirmed that Jubilee Metals’ “focus remains firmly on disciplined, milestone-driven execution”.

Conclusion: Increased copper output in Zambia as the Roan concentrator ramps up and the Molefe mine expands production.

Pan American Silver (PAAS CN) C51, Mkt Cap C$21bn – Ramping up shareholder returns as free cash flow rises

• Pan American reports 1Q26 results.
• The Company produced 6.4moz Ag vs 5moz Ag same period last year.
• Gold production stood at 169koz, down from 182koz 2025.
• Silver AISC reported at $6.6/oz, down from $13.9/oz last year.
• Gold AISC reported at $1,851/oz, down from $1,485/oz last year.
• Revenue reported at $1.2bn vs $773m last year, with attributable free cash flow reported at $488m.
• Silver prices achieved over the quarter at $89/oz, with gold prices of $4,859/oz.
• Shareholder returns reported at $101m via dividends and buybacks.
• Pan American announces an updated shareholder returns plan, targeting 35-40% of attributable free cash flow, anticipating returning c.$1bn in 2026.
• Company reports production guidance on track.

Panther Metals (PALM LN) 106p, Mkt Cap £9.2m – Preparations for drilling the Obonga project, Ontario

• Panther Metals has started drill-pad preparation at its Wishbone copper/zinc VMS prospect and the Awkward Conduit nickel/copper/PGM prospect in Ontario.
• Earlier this year, the company announced “plans for an approximately 2,000-metre diamond drilling program at the Wishbone Prospect … [where previous] … work confirmed compelling VMS-style mineralisation, including 27.3m of massive sulphide and 51m of sulphide-dominated mineralisation across multiple lenses, supported by high-grade copper anomalies in lake sediments”.
• “In July 2024, Panther secured an Exploration Permit for Awkward West, enabling up to 31 drill holes to follow-up geophysical work showing anomalous magnetic signatures in an area of geochemical platinum and palladium anomalism and where “historical drilling on the periphery of the target intersected un-assayed massive and disseminated sulphide and chalcopyrite”.
• CEO, Darren Hazelwood, said the planned drilling is “an exciting phase of exploration” with zinc and copper potential at Wishbone and “a potentially sulphide laden magmatic feeder pipe … with the potential to host a significant new deposit” at the Awkward prospect”,

Zanaga Iron Ore (ZIOC LN) 5.2p, Mkt Cap £43m – Updated costing analysis for DRI product quality

• Zanaga reports it has completed a costing analysis of a Direct Reduced Iron Process Plant.
• The DRI plant is aimed to bring product quality enhancements to the Zanaga high-grade iron ore project in the RoC.
• The plant costing was enabled following successful met testwork outlining potential DRI product quality from the mine.
• Updated costs and study results outlined below:
  • Stage One CAPEX: $2.2bn for $2.54bn NPV (up 12.5% and 30.9% respectively vs 2024 FS)
  • Combined Stage One and Two CAPEX: $4.05bn for $4.9bn NPV and IRR of 24% (NPV up 29.4% vs 2024 FS)
• The combined stages will produce a 68.8% Fe DRI product.
• The updated costs were provided via engagement with several Chinese OEMs and construction groups.
• The new study proposes a two-stage pipeline design, with a stage one capacity of 12mtpa and an additional 18mtpa capacity in stage 2.
• A single pipeline system is also optioned to ramp up capacity faster and reduce financing needs in phase two.
• Going forward, Zanaga will conduct:
  • Additional MRE and reserve modelling
  • Bulk sampling and pilot scale met testwork
  • Environmental studies
  • Non-process infrastructure design and costing
  • Defining operating phase systems and related opex
• FID is due by the end of 2027.
• Additionally, Zanaga provides an update on the Red Arc strategic investment, with finalised transaction agreements targeted for July 2026.

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