SP Angel . Morning View . Wednesday 01.04.26

MiFID II exempt information – see disclaimer below

Arkle Resources* (ARK LN)  – Geophysics surveys complete, drill target generation the focus

Lindian Resources (LIN AU) – A$100m equity raise

Mila Resources (MILA LN)  – Drilling results from Yarrol, Queensland

Mkango Resources* (MKA LN)  – BUY – £12.5m placing to progress permanent magnets recycling business

Petra Diamonds (PDL LN)  – Instability in the Middle East curbs diamond market sentiment

Serval Resources* (Oscillate PLC) (SRVL LN)  – £2.9m placing enables completion of Kalahari Copperbelt acquisition

Gold ($4,720/oz) presses higher as market jumps on renewed optimism for peace in the Middle East

• Gold prices have jumped 3.9% since yesterday, pushing above $4,700/oz for the first time since the 19th March.
• Gold sold off hard in the wake of the Iran war as a number of leveraged positions were liquidated.
• The metal had been a major beneficiary of sustained momentum through 2025, which culminated in strong ETF inflows supported by retail investors.
• The shake-out triggered by a wider market sell-off following the US/Israel’s military offensive has cleaned out speculative positions in the metal, with ETF holdings sitting below 98moz vs 105moz earlier this year.
• US Treasury yields have reversed their move higher, as inflation concerns cool, with the 10 Year falling back below 4.3% having neared 4.5%.
• Higher yields historically weigh on investor appetite for non-yielding bullion, although that correlation has broken down in recent years.
• A rebound in the dollar had pressured gold, however the dollar index is struggling to break out over 100, having sat at highs of 108 at the start of Trump’s presidency.
• Ultimately, we see the events in recent weeks as supporting the long-term tailwinds behind gold’s momentum.
• An erratic White House is eroding confidence in the US’ role in global stability, which has direct implications to the current ‘petrodollar’ status quo which has provided sustained support to the dollar for several decades.
• Furthermore, the US has directly targeted unofficial Chinese ‘interests’ this year, hitting both Iran and Venezuela who are major sources of Chinese crude.
• We consider continued jostling for power between China and the US as a major tailwind to gold prices, with the PBoC continuing to diversify its foreign reserves away from Treasuries in favour of gold.
• Geopolitical tensions are adding to concerns over unsustainable fiscal deficits, with increased defence spending adding budgetary pressures to G7 governments.
• Gold seems to have found a new floor over $4,000/oz, which should support a continued rerating of gold mining and developer equities going forward.

Risk on sentiment gains momentum as President Trump said the US may end the war within two to three weeks.

• Trump told reporters in the WH that the US is prepared to “leave whether we have a deal or not… it’s irrelevant”.
• Trump is expected to address the nation later today “to provide an important update on Iran”.
• Earlier, the administration offered an April 6 deadline to reach a deal with Iran.
• Under the legislation, the administration is limited to 60 days for deploying military troops in a conflict without congressional authorization.

Sulfuric acid – Disruption to shipping in Strait of Hormuz raises prices

• There is substantial debate on the potential for shortages of sulphur / sulphuric acid production for refiners if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed.
• Saudi Aramco is a major producer and supplier of Sulphur, much of which is shipped east to metal refineries across Asia.
• While the need to find new sources of sulphur will be highly disruptive we feel supplies will be available at a price from other sources.
• Sulphur prices have risen to ~$600/t from $520/t in January and $495/t in December.
  • Total sulphur seaborne trade = 40mtpa
  • Global seaborne trade = 20mtpa
  • Saudi Arabia sulphur exported 4.5mt in 2024
  • Canada exported 4.1mt in 2024
  • US is a major producer
  • Kazakhstan – can supply China and other Asia
  • Russia can also supply
• Robert Friedland has highlighted increasing sulfuric acid prices in the DRC, which may impact copper oxide SX-EW supply dominant in the region.

Oil, LNG and helium - what the Middle East conflict means for energy markets - IG TV: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FlMVGvbgE9o

How the Iran conflict is reshaping global commodity markets - IG TV: https://youtu.be/oE6-k3hQDsM?si=sXBMY_UOZpvMP8EA

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Currencies

US$1.1588/eur vs 1.1465/eur previous. Yen 158.33/$ vs 159.78/$. SAr 16.825/$ vs 17.141/$. $1.328/gbp vs $1.319/gbp. 0.694/aud vs 0.685/aud

CNY 6.873/$ vs 6.908/$. Dollar Index 99.58 vs 100.48 previous.

Economics

China looks to resolve Iranian crisis with Pakistan

• China and Pakistan are working together to try and resolve the conflict between Israel, the US and Iran (SCMP).
• Their proposed plan calls for an immediate ceasefire, a halt to attacks on civilian and critical infrastructure and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
• China and Pakistan are particularly vulnerable to oil, gas, sulphur and other supplies which pass through the Straits with Pakistan already rationing fuel.
• Beijing pledged to support Pakistan’s role as a mediator with recent talks expected to extend beyond the Iran conflict.
• Talks are likely to involve recent tension with Afghanistan and cooperation on the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor and related projects.

Iran – Heading towards negotiated settlement

• Iran is struggling to pay its security and military forces at a time of extreme financial stress for many Iranian families
• Delays in payments have led to some personnel refusing to attend pro-government rallies.
• Delayed payments are also leading to allegations of government favouritism towards certain parts of the security apparatus leading to
• Iran continues to fire drones into Saudi, Riyadh. Into Dubai and near Iraq’s Erbil airport.
• A drone also struck an oil tanker in Kuwait outside the Strait of Hormuz.
• Two LPG tankers cross Strait of Hormuz bound for India and some Chinese container ships have also passed through the Strait.
• A HK-flagged oil and chemical tanker passed into the strait from east to west.

Scenarios

• China-Pakistan negotiations enable more moderate leadership to step into void
  • US – walks away – declares success in 35 or 45-day war
  • Strait of Hormuz may reopen to friendly nations like China
• Hard liners take charge – continue to wage war against Israel and their neighbours
  • Iran keeps Strait of Hormuz closed
  • US boots on the ground – gets messy and ugly with Iran looking to take hostages
• Saudi, UAE, Iraq, Qatar and others join offensive
  • It seems unlikely, that neighbouring nations will march into Iran
• Iraqi pro-Iran armed group (Hashd al-Shaabi) enters Iran in aid convoy waving Iraqi and Hezbollah flags
  • The aid convoy could be a Trojan horse enabling a paramilitary group to walk straight into Terhan – who knows what happens next?
  • Basij paramilitary forces set up armed checkpoints and roadblocks in Tehran and other cities launching ‘campaign of warriors defending the homeland’
  • The Basij force are reported to be officially recruiting children over 12 years old for field activities.

Iran – Authorities arrest sellers of Starlink systems

• Iran has arrested a number of people involved in selling Starlink devices.
• There are possibly ~50,000 Starlink terminals in Iran which have been aiding communication with the outside world.
• Users have to be careful to get a quick fix on a Starlink satellite before the beam widens and is detected by the authorities.
• Being caught using a Starlink terminal can result in capital punishment according to reports.
• Iran’s Ministry of Intelligence claims to have arrested dozens of alleged American and Israeli spies and confiscated seven Starlink kits, along with guns and ammunition (Tasnim news agency).
• Iran’s Technology Minister recently ordered more operations to find Starlinks.

Precious metals:         

Gold US$4,719/oz vs US$4,551/oz previous

   Gold ETFs 97.9moz vs 98.0moz previous

Platinum US$1,975/oz vs US$1,919/oz previous

Palladium US$1,488/oz vs US$1,436/oz previous

Silver US$74.9/oz vs US$71.9/oz previous

   Silver ETFs 798.8moz vs 802.8moz previous

   Gold / silver ratio – 63x

Rhodium US$10,100/oz vs US$10,400/oz previous

Base metals:   

Copper US$12,469/t vs US$12,217/t previous

Aluminium US$3,441/t vs US$3,476/t previous

Nickel US$17,200/t vs US$17,160/t previous

Zinc US$3,213/t vs US$3,187/t previous

Lead US$1,917/t vs US$1,909/t previous

Tin US$47,330/t vs US$46,400/t previous

Energy:

Oil US$99.0/bbl vs US$113.5/bbl previous

• International energy prices declined ahead of US President Trump’s nationwide address on the Iran conflict later today, which the market expects to outline a pathway towards ending the conflict and reopening the Strait of Hormuz.
• The API estimated a huge US oil inventory w/w build of 10.2mb (vs -1.3mb draw expected) to crude, 0.5mb offset by draws of 3.2 mb to gasoline and 1mb to distillate stocks, as Cushing storage inventories also reflected a build of 0.8mb.
• France's average nuclear generation rose 5% w/w to 77% of the country’s 61.4GW maximum capacity.

Natural Gas €48.6/MWh vs €53.9/MWh previous

Uranium Futures $84.0/lb vs $83.9/lb previous

Bulk:

Iron Ore 62% Fe Spot (Singapore) US$106.3/t vs US$105.6/t

Chinese steel rebar 25mm US$468.1/t vs US$465.6/t

HCC FOB Australia US$235.0/t vs US$224.0/t

Thermal coal swap Australia FOB US$145.3/t vs US$150.0/t

Other:  

Cobalt LME 3m US$56,290/t vs US$56,290/t

NdPr Rare Earth Oxide (China) US$104,979/t vs US$103,140/t

Lithium carbonate 99% (China) US$22,407/t vs US$22,293/t

China Spodumene Li2O 6%min CIF US$2,100/t vs US$2,100/t

Ferro-Manganese European Mn78% min US$1,035/t vs US$1,035/t

China Tungsten APT 88.5% FOB US$2,443/mtu vs US$2,443/mtu

China Tantalum Concentrate 30% CIF US$253/lb vs US$253/mtu

China Graphite Flake -194 FOB US$420/t vs US$420/t

Europe Vanadium Pentoxide 98% US$5.8/lb vs US$5.8/lb

Europe Ferro-Vanadium 80% US$28.8/kg vs US$28.8/kg

China Ilmenite Concentrate TiO2 US$258/t vs US$257/t

US Titanium Dioxide TiO2 >98% US$2,759/t vs US$2,759/t

China Rutile Concentrate 95% TiO2 US$1,142/t vs US$1,136/t

Spot CO2 Emissions EUA Price US$65.1/t vs US$65.1/t

Brazil Potash CFR Granular Spot US$387.5/t vs US$387.5/t

Germanium China 99.99% US$3,075.0/kg vs US$3,075.0/kg

China Gallium 99.99% US$400.0/kg vs US$400.0/kg

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Company News:

Arkle Resources* (ARK LN) 0.58p, Mkt Cap £8.6m – Geophysics surveys complete, drill target generation the focus

• Arkle reports an exploration update from its uranium projects in Namibia, having now completed its ground and airborne geophysical surveys.
• The Company has completed three lines of horizontal loop electromagnetic survey (HLEM) on 8995 EPL, aimed to test potential paleochannels.
• The survey has confirmed the presence of a well-developed paleochannel in the Northeastern section of EPL 8995, and also identified a new paleochannel in the centre  
• Paleochannels are considered a trap for uranium deposition, with much of the uranium mineralisation in the Erongo region hosted within them.
• Additionally, a 12,376 line-kms radiometric magnetic and airborne survey was completed at 50m-line spacing to support target generation.
• The airborne surveys have tightened previous government geophysics data, helping the exploration team focus their targeting before the next stage of exploration.
• Surveying of historical drilling data has identified 95 open drill holes, considered suitable for downhole gamma logging.
• Downhole gamma logging detects gamma rays from Bi-214, supporting the identification of elevated uranium grades beneath surface.
• Arkle is contracting globally renowned geophysics exports to review the airborne radiometric and magnetometer data provided by Xcalibur.
• This will enable them to prioritise focus areas for ground-based mapping and sampling.
• This will then delineate drill targets for the fully funded, Phase 2 Exploration Programme.
• Arkle is planning to drill 4,000m of RC drilling in 2H26.

Conclusion: Arkle has moved quickly to complete widespread geophysics surveys over their uranium exploration portfolio in Namibia. The HLEM survey has identified a new and prospective shallow-lying paleochannel at EPL 8995 that requires further work. The comprehensive Xcalibur airborne surveys, and the upcoming expert review of data provided, should support targeted and high-priority drill target generation. Ultimately, Arkle presents one of the more exciting uranium exploration stories currently trading, with a high-impact and fully funded RC drilling programme due in the second half of this year following methodical geophysical and geochemical mapping currently underway.

*SP Angel acts as Nomad and Broker to Arkle

Lindian Resources (LIN AU) A$0.77, Mkt Cap A$1.3bn – A$100m equity raise

• The Company closes an oversubscribed A$100m equity placing for the Kangankunde Project, Malawi, and midstream processing SARECO MREC Facility, Kazakhstan.
• Issue price is A$0.75 implying a ~15% discount to the last close.
• Proceeds to be used for:
  • Kangankunde Stage 1 (20ktpa con, 100% LIN): removing the need to use Iluka debt facility (A$32m) and no debt required to reach Project Completion;
  • Kangankunde Stage 2 (>1000ktpa, 100% LIN): DFS, accelerating expansion with procurement of long lead items, supporting Stage 2 timelines and reducing delivery risks;
  • SARECO MREC Facility (12.5ktpa con processing rate, 51% LIN): advancing operational readiness, working capital needs and maintenance capex.
• Stage 1 construction ongoing with first production targeted for 4Q26.
• Stage 2 FID targeted for December 2026.
• MREC production at SARECO MREC Facility guided for 4Q26.

Mila Resources (MILA LN) 1.03p, Mkt Cap £6.7m – Drilling results from Yarrol, Queensland

• Mila Resources reports assay results from its diamond-drilling and also the completion of its infill and extension reverse-circulation (RC) drilling at the Yarrol Gold Project in Queensland.
• The company says that “Multiple drillholes intersected broad mineralised zones with internal high-grade shoots” including:
  • A 14m wide intersection at an average grade of 1.10g/t gold from a depth of 183m in hole MYA-DD-0205 including single metre intersections grading 7.51g/t and 6.4g/t at 183m and 187m; and
  • A 5m wide intersection at an average grade of 1.40g/t gold from a depth of 143m in hole MYA-DD-0206 including a single metre intersection grading 6.83g/t at 143m; and
  • A 3m wide intersection at an average grade of 3.40g/t gold from a depth of 51m in hole MYA-DD-0208 including a 0.45m intersection grading 10.05g/t at 52.25m; and
  • A 5m wide intersection at an average grade of 1.07g/t gold from a depth of 195m in hole MYA-DD-0209 including a single metre intersection grading 5.05g/t from 195m.
• Today’s announcement explains that mineralisation was intersected “across all holes, confirming a laterally and vertically continuous mineralised system, with broad envelopes hosting discrete higher-grade shoots”.
• Mila Resources says that the drilling “represents a clear progression from initial discovery to a defined and coherent gold system, with continuity, geometry and vectors to higher-grade mineralisation now well established”.
• The company is working towards “defining a Mineral Resource Estimate” and is targeting the definition of “higher-grade shoots along strike and at depth” with “zones with coincident Au-Te-As signatures” an exploration priority.
• Executive Chairman, Mark Stephenson, described Yarrol as “a connected, evolving system and … [described] …these results … [as] …a solid platform for the next phase of drilling”.
• He said that the Milaa Resources expects the remaining results from the recently completed RC drilling to “expand the footprint of the system, highlighting that Yarrol remains very much open to growth”.

Conclusion: Recent drilling has demonstrated continuity of mineralisation at Yarrol as Mila Resources works towards defining an MRE.

Mkango Resources* (MKA LN) 34p, Mkt Cap £125m –£12.5m placing to progress permanent magnets recycling business

BUY

• The Company closed a £12.5m equity raise to support development of the rare earth magnet recycling business.
• ~37.9m news shares to be issued at 33p.
• The issue price implies a ~15% discount to the last close.
• The raise was increased from £10m.
• Net proceeds to be used for:
  • A potential acquisition in Germany (£4.3m)
  • Development capex for Germany operations (£4.0m)
  • Development capex for UK operations (£2.2m)
  • Working capital (£2.0m)

Conclusion: An equity placing reflects strong demand from investors supporting the team in the process of ramping up rare earth magnet recycling in Europe and the US. The Company uses a patented HPMS tech (Hydrogen Processing of Magnet Scrap) to establish a lower risk, faster to first production and scalable solution to unlocking an alternative source of permanent magnets in the industry controlled by China (>90% of magnet production). The Company offers a catalyst rich execution roadmap. UK facility is ramping up to 100-350tpa run rates. Germany plant (100-350tpa) commissioning is due shortly. HyProMag USA (40% MKA) developing a 1,550tpa facility in the US is targeting commercial production 2H27. HyProMag USA IPO is targeted 4Q26-1Q27.

*SP Angel acts as nomad and broker to Mkango Resources

Petra Diamonds (PDL LN) 17.5p, Mkt Cap £56m – Instability in the Middle East curbs diamond market sentiment

• Petra Diamonds reports Q3 sales of 781,797 carats of diamonds generating revenue of US$68m (Q3 FY 25 sale of 558,651 generating US$42m).
• Sales realised an average of US$87/carat compared with US$98/carat in the preceding quarter and US$74/carat in Q3 25).
• The company comments that the smaller stones “have continued to see weaker prices … [although these are partially] … offset by improving demand in the coarser higher valued diamonds”.
• Without disclosing the price, today’s announcement also highlights the sale of a 41.82 carat Type IIb blue diamond from its Cullinan mine in South Africa which Joint CEO’s Vivek Gadodia and Juan Kemp described as a “magnificent gem”.
• Today’s announcement confirms that this diamond “will be cut and polished in South Africa, which was a key consideration for us in order to continue supporting the South African beneficiation sector”.
• The company explains that sale of these rare high-value diamonds helps to mitigate impact of a weaker global market on its Cullinan mine but that its “Finsch … [mine] … did not have that benefit and experienced a significant overall reduction of 22% on average prices received quarter on quarter” to US$56/ carat while Cullinan’s sales prices were only 9% lower at US$109/ carat.
• Commenting on the wider market sentiment for rough diamonds, Petra Diamonds says that the “recent Middle East tensions have … dampened sentiment, with travel disruptions through the Middle East directly impacting tender participation for our goods”.

Serval Resources* (Oscillate PLC) (SRVL LN) 0.6p, Mkt Cap £2.6m – £2.9m placing enables completion of Kalahari Copperbelt acquisition

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• Serval Resources, formerly Oscillate PLC, has completed a placing to raise £2.9m.
• The fundraising enables the completion of the Kalahari Copper acquisition, providing Serval with a strong copper-silver exploration foothold in Namibia and Botswana.
• The placing was completed at 22.5p/share through the issue of 12,998k new shares, subject to a 50:1 share consolidation.
• Serval is also undertaking a WRAP Retail Offer of £300k at 22.5p/share for 1.3m new shares.
• Serval expects to be admitted to AIM on 27th April 2026, with a cancellation of Aquis trading to take place concurrently.
• The proposed acquisition of Kalahari Copper Ltd is expected to complete concurrently with the commencement of dealings on AIM.
• Serval will receive £2m in net proceeds from the placing with use of funds broken down as follows:
  • £600k in Namibian exploration
  • £400k in Botswanan exploration
  • £600k in working capital
  • £900k in corporate overheads and ongoing regulatory costs
• In Namibia, Serval will undertake a widespread mapping and geophysics survey alongside scout drilling to build on known targets identified by Kalahari Copper.
• Previous drilling in Namibia has intercepted highlights of 19m at 2.6% Cu and 20m at 1.2% Cu, with the focus on boosting the understanding of the structure of these stratabound mineralised bodies.
• Serval has begun exploration in Botswana, with the budget supporting further geophysics, soil sampling and environmental/stakeholder development work as it advances towards drilling.
• Serval also holds an IOCG-prospective licence package in 

Conclusion: The completion of the Kalahari Copper Acquisition, £2.9m placing and admission to AIM mark three fundamental milestones for Serval Resources. The Company has now established a strong foothold in two tier one African mining jurisdictions, with a large land package prospective for sedimentary copper-silver mineralisation. 2026 will see the Company build on work completed by the previous, undercapitalised owner of the licences, with a widespread sampling, mapping and geophysics programme either underway or planned in both countries. Scout drilling will target extensions of previously identified, high-grade copper-silver mineralisation in Namibia.

*SP Angel acts as Broker to Serval

LSE Group Starmine awards for Reuters Polls 2025 / 2024 commodity forecasting:

No1 for Precious Metals: CY 2025

No.1 in Precious Metals: Q1 2025

No.1 in Precious Metals: CY 2024

No.2 in Base Metals: CY 2024

Analysts

John Meyer –John.Meyer@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0490

Simon Beardsmore – Simon.Beardsmore@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0484

Sergey Raevskiy –Sergey.Raevskiy@spangel.co.uk - 0203 470 0474

Arthur Parish – Arthur.Parish@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0476

Sales

Richard Parlons –Richard.Parlons@spangel.co.uk - 0203 470 0472

Abigail Wayne –Abigail.Wayne@spangel.co.uk - 0203 470 0534

Rob Rees –Rob.Rees@spangel.co.uk - 0203 470 0535

Grant Barker – Grant.Barker@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0471

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*SP Angel are the No1 integrated nomad and broker by number of mining brokerage clients on AIM according to the AIM Advisers Ranking Guide (joint brokerships excluded)

+SP Angel employees may have previously held, or currently hold, shares in the companies mentioned in this note.

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