SP Angel . Morning View . Tuesday 21.04.26

MiFID II exempt information – see disclaimer below

Agnico Eagle (AEM US)  – Consolidating in Finland with Rupert and Aurion acquisitions to create 500kozpa hub

Capital Limited (CAPD LN)  – Strong revenue and new contract wins, FY26 revenue guidance retained

Lynas Rare Earths (LYC AU) – Quarterly operations results

Q2 Metals* (QTWO CN)  – 9.9mt LCE delivered in maiden Cisco MRE

Rio Tinto (RIO LN)  – 2026 production guidance intact after robust Q1 from copper, iron ore and aluminium

Rockfire Resources (ROCK LN)  – Drilling results from Malaoi, Greece

Savannah Resources* (SAV LN)  – BUY, Target 18.5p – Company presentation

USA Rare Earth (USAR N) - USA Rare Earths to acquire Serra Verde Group for ~$2.8bn

West African Resources (WAF AU) – Burkina Faso government to pay A$175m for 25% Kiaka interest

Copper ($13,283/t) holds higher level amid sulphur disruption concerns

• Copper has rallied steadily since the end of March and is now up 12% over the past month.
• The metal has seen strong buying as inventories in China slide and concerns mount over sulphur exports from the Gulf.
• Shanghai copper stocks fell 9.8%wow last week and has fallen 45% since March 13th.
• Yanghsan copper premium holding steady c.$70/t suggests sustained appetite for copper imports from Chinese buyers.
• Sulfuric acid supply for SX-EW copper operations (c.20% of global production) remains constrained by the ongoing conflict in the Middle East.
• Natixis estimates sulfur accounts for 20% of Congolese SX-EW copper producers cash costs.
• Reuters reports DRC and Zambian operations have begun to cut acid consumption amid import price hikes.
• China is restricting sulphuric acid exports to support its domestic agricultural sector.
• However, this may reduce margins for Chinese copper smelters, at a time when TCRC fees are negative.
• This is increasing concerns over Chinese smelter shutdowns, reducing refined supply globally.

Gold ($4,785/oz) edges lower as inflation concerns return on energy disruption from Iran

• Gold prices have lost their recent upward momentum, continuing to slide back from recent highs of $4,885/oz.
• The metal rallied on peace talk optimism, but has since pared gains as tensions remount between the US/Israel and Iran.
• Traders are taking profits over concerns inflation may add further upward pressure to Treasury yields.
• The US 10 year is holding steady at 4.25%, having touched 4.4% in the wake of the Iran war.
• Oil prices are edging lower as the market looks past Sunday’s ceasefire breakdown, with Brent sliding to $95/bbl.
• The dollar is green today, with the index up 24bp to 98.3, which may be pressuring gold prices.

China - Faded Mining Town Draws Migrants Seeking Fresh Air, Slower Living (Caixin)

• Even in China historic mining towns are seen as havens of peace and tranquillity.
• Gejiu, once produced 11,000tpa of China’s tin and 90% of the nation’s tin metal output.
• The city inherited an unusually strong healthcare system from its mining legacy including three top-tier hospitals and renown oncology departments.
• By 2025, the city had won three national climate designations:
  • “China’s Natural Oxygen Bar,”
  • “China’s Climate Livable City,”
  • “Summer Tourism Destination.”
• Air quality reached an excellent-or-good rate of 96.4% to 96.7% that year.
• https://www.caixinglobal.com/2026-04-18/weekend-long-read-faded-mining-town-draws-migrants-seeking-fresh-air-slower-living-102435233.html            
• We once visited a former tin mine in France where the flooded open pit was used for water skiing.
• The tailings dumps were used for mountain and trail biking and another waste pile had become a popular local walk due to its high vantage point.
• It’s easy for communities to forget that mining can leave long-lasting legacy benefits for communities.

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Currencies

US$1.1763/eur vs 1.1763/eur previous. Yen 158.88/$ vs 158.88/$. SAr 16.387/$ vs 16.387/$. $1.351/gbp vs $1.351/gbp. 0.715/aud vs         0.715/aud. CNY 6.819/$ vs 6.819/$.

Dollar Index 98.20 vs   98.20 previous.

Economics

China – Foreign brokers allowed to trade Nickel futures and options on the SHFE from tomorrow direct from their screens

• This will be the first duty-paid non-ferrous metal futures product on the SHFE to be directly opened to global investors.
• Nickel is essential for most grades of stainless steel and batteries and is a critical metal particularly for the new energy economy.
• Opening both contracts will broaden the hedging pool, further deepen contract liquidity and, over time, client demand will push SHFE and GFEX prices further into the global benchmark conversation for transition metals.
• BANDS Financial already supports overseas access via the OI route to the DCE, ZCE and INE commodity exchanges.
• We expect the SHFE to open up to include Gold, Silver, Aluminium, Lead, Zinc, Tin, and Copper for overseas participation at some point in the future.
• BANDS Financial are based in HK and approved as an Overseas Intermediary for the Guangzhou Futures Exchange (GFEX).
• BANDS reckon it would be reasonable to expect the GFEX to enable foreign participation in the world’s most liquid Lithium Carbonate futures contract in the foreseeable future.
• For further info please contact: john.browning@bands.financial

UK – Chancellor’s proposal for £17.6bn of ‘war bonds’ look more like wave of new borrowing

• In March the Chancellor announced the Debt Management Office would sell £252bn of bonds in this financial year.
• The Treasury is now looking to raise an additional £17.6bn under the pretext of increase defence to 3p% of GDP by 2030.
• An increase in borrowing of 1% GDP might be raise interest rates by 0.5-1.25% equating to UK interest rate rises of 0.25-0.75% if the bond issue is successful.

Iran - US deliberates deal versus renewed military campaign according to a Trump administration official (Axios)

• Trump says blockade will remain in place until a deal is reached and described it as costing Iran approximately $500m per day.
• Pakistan signals possible Iranian participation in talks (Reuters)
• UAE says it has dismantled an Iran-linked cell: accused of plotting to destabilize the country and threaten national unity and stability.
  The investigation revealed the cell is linked to Iran's Wilayat al-Faqih.
  
   

Precious metals:

Gold US$4,783/oz vs US$4,796/oz previous

   Gold ETFs 99.3moz vs 99.2moz previous

Platinum US$2,076/oz vs US$2,081/oz previous

Palladium US$1,559/oz vs US$1,545/oz previous

Silver US$79.0/oz vs US$79.7/oz previous

   Silver ETFs 800.9moz vs 800.9moz previous

Rhodium US$10,150/oz vs US$10,100/oz previous

Base metals:   

Copper US$13,270/t vs US$13,259/t previous

Aluminium US$3,529/t vs US$3,536/t previous

Nickel US$18,215/t vs US$18,175/t previous

Zinc US$3,415/t vs US$3,423/t previous

Lead US$1,981/t vs US$1,963/t previous

Tin US$50,600/t vs US$50,175/t previous

Energy:

Oil US$95.2/bbl vs US$95.6/bbl previous

Natural Gas €39.4/MWh vs €40.7/MWh previous

Uranium Futures $86.9/lb vs $87.0/lb previous

Bulk:

Iron Ore 62% Fe Spot (Singapore) US$107.0/t vs US$106.7/t

Chinese steel rebar 25mm US$472.2/t vs US$471.6/t

HCC FOB Australia US$231.5/t vs US$231.0/t

Thermal coal swap Australia FOB US$120.8/t vs US$121.5/t

Other:

Cobalt LME 3m US$56,290/t vs US$56,290/t

NdPr Rare Earth Oxide (China) US$117,745/t vs US$116,576/t

Lithium carbonate 99% (China) US$24,209/t vs US$24,635/t

China Spodumene Li2O 6%min CIF US$2,325/t vs US$2,325/t

Ferro-Manganese European Mn78% min US$1,035/t vs US$1,035/t

China Tungsten APT 88.5% FOB US$2,443/mtu vs US$2,443/mtu

China Tantalum Concentrate 30% CIF US$218/lb vs US$218/mtu

China Graphite Flake -194 FOB US$420/t vs US$420/t

Europe Vanadium Pentoxide 98% US$5.8/lb vs US$5.8/lb

Europe Ferro-Vanadium 80% US$28.8/kg vs US$28.8/kg

China Ilmenite Concentrate TiO2 US$250/t vs US$250/t

US Titanium Dioxide TiO2 >98% US$2,799/t vs US$2,799/t

China Rutile Concentrate 95% TiO2 US$1,152/t vs US$1,151/t

Spot CO2 Emissions EUA Price US$65.1/t vs US$65.1/t

Brazil Potash CFR Granular Spot US$405.0/t vs US$405.0/t

Germanium China 99.99% US$3,075.0/kg vs US$3,075.0/kg

China Gallium 99.99% US$400.0/kg vs US$400.0/kg

EV & battery news

Company News:

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Agnico Eagle (AEM US) $216, Mkt Cap $108bn – Consolidating in Finland with Rupert and Aurion acquisitions to create 500kozpa hub

• Agnico Eagle announced three separate transactions yesterday in the Central Lapland Greenstone Belt.
• Agnico has agreed to acquire Rupert Resources:
  • 0.041 AEM shares for each Rupert shares, equating to C$12/share, a 66% premium
  • Additional C$3 per Rupert share of CVRs based on future mineral reserve and production milestones.
• Rupert holds the PFS-stage Ikkari project in Finland which outlines:
  • 167kozpa over 20 year LOM with 3.5moz reserves at 2.1g/t Au
  • Upfront CAPEX of $575m and LOM AISC of $918/oz
  • Post-tax NPV5 of $5.5bn and IRR of 73% at $4,500/oz Au.
  • Open pit production over first 10 years averaging 227kozpa at AISC of $717/oz before transitioning to underground for remaining 10 years.
  • Rupert had outlined a target of 3moz in additional discoveries over the next five years over their 1,575km2 land package.
• Agnico also agreed to acquire Aurion Resources:
  • C$2.6/share in cash representing a 46% premium to last closing price and a C$481m fully diluted equity value
• Fingold’s Helmi discovery lies on the border of Rupert’s Ikkari project, with the transaction expected to extend the Ikkari open pit and LOM.
• Furthermore, Agnico has acquired B2Gold’s 70% interest in the Fingold JV for $325m in cash.
• Agnico has a stated aim of bringing the Finland hub to a 500kozpa, multi-decade gold hub.
• The Fingold JV covered 293km2 and included several new discoveries.
• Angico will initially complete an updated internal evaluation for the optimised mine design, without the boundary constrains previously experienced by Rupert, due 2027-end.
• Ikkari construction expected to take three years from FID, due following permitting.
• Agnico will also conduct a C$60-100m exploration programme including 100,000-175,000m drilling to test regional targets.
• Angico sees potential for C$500m in synergies from the combined asset base, which includes its producing 225kozpa Kittila project.

Conclusion: This is a good transaction all round, with Agnico positioned to double production in Finland through the acquisition of Rupert’s top tier Ikkari project. Management is focused on regional exploration in the Lapland Greenstone Belt and has earmarked a large-scale regional drilling programme to discover additional resources which may be milled at the Ikkari plant. The 66% premium for Rupert shows, to us, that good quality gold assets remain cheap despite the wider market rerate. This marks the second major acquisition in the past month for undeveloped gold assets, following G Mining’s $2.2bn acquisition of G2 Goldfields for a 72% premium. We suspect a new round of M&A and consolidation is underway in the gold sector as cash-rich producers look to build out their reserves.

Capital Limited (CAPD LN) 125p, Mkt Cap £282m – Strong revenue and new contract wins, FY26 revenue guidance retained

• Drilling company Capital Limited report a 1Q26 trading update.
• The Company reports total revenue up 42%yoy to $102m and a 9% increase qoq.
• Revenue broken down to:
  • Drilling: $63m, up 8.8%yoy and 4.3%qoq.
  • Mining: $18m, up from $0.6m same period last year and up 65%qoq.
  • MSALABs: $21m, up 55%yoy but down 3%qoq.
• Company notes new contract wins:
  • 5-year deep hole directional drilling at Sukari
  • 3-year diamond and RC programme at Kiniero
  • Waterbore contract at Resolute’s Doropo
  • 5-year grade control drilling at Montage’s Kone project.
• Management notes fleet utilisation fell to 70% from 73% same period last year.
• Average monthly revenue per rig stood at $201k over the quarter, up 10.4% same period last year and 7.5%qoq.
• Retains guidance of $410-440m revenue for 2026.
• Listed and unlisted investment portfolio value stands at $95m, with key holdings in WIA Gold, Asara Resources and Apollo Minerals.

Lynas Rare Earths (LYC AU) A$20, Mkt Cap A$20bn – Quarterly operations results

• The Company reported 3QFY26 results this morning.
  • Production 3.2kt REO (2QFY26: 2.4kt) including
    • 2.0kt NdPr (2QFY26: 1.4kt)
    • 8t DyTb (2QFY26: 26t)
  • Sales 3.1kt REO (2QFY26: 2.4kt)
  • Av Selling Price realised A$84.6/kg (2QFY26: A$85.6/kg)
  • Revenue A$265.0m (2QFY26: A$201.9m)
• Quarterly revenue were at their highest since 4QFY22 driven by stronger NPr prices and higher production.
• The Company is monitoring consumables supply chains including fuel with operations have no been materially affected yet.
• The team highlights benefits from switching Mt Weld power plant from diesel to hybrid renewable solution helping to reduce fuel consumption.
• The Company produced first samarium oxide at its processing facilities at Lynas Malaysia in March.
• Samarium is in high demand for its use in high performance magnets (SmCo)for electronics and aerospace as well as optical, catalyst and medical applications.
• Samarium oxide trades for ~$2/kg in China (AsianMetal).
• The Company signed a 12y agreement with its Japanese partners (Japa Australia Rare Earths, JARE) including 5ktpa NdPr minimum offtake at US$110/kg floor prices.
• Additionally, the team signed a binding LOI with the US government with US$96m previously allocated for construction of a HRE facility in Texas will be used to buy LREO/HREO products from Lynas existing facilities over a 4y period, US$110/kg NdPr floor price applied.

Q2 Metals* (QTWO CN) C$2.72, Mkt Cap C$538m – 9.9mt LCE delivered in maiden Cisco MRE

• Q2 Metals, who are advancing the Cisco spodumene project in Quebec, report a maiden MRE.
• Cisco inferred MRE reported at:
  • Open Pit: 270mt at 1.36% Li2O for 9.1mt LCE
  • Underground: 24.2mt at 1.34% Li2O for 0.8mt LCE
• The MRE is based off 33,343m of drilling from 75 holes and uses cut off grades of 0.4% Li2O for open pit and 0.7% Li2O for underground.
• The MRE hosts a continuous, principal spodumene pegmatite body extending over a strike length of 1.8km.
• The base case pitshell is 700m x 660m by 540m in depth.
• Management notes that the deposit remains ‘open in all directions.’
• Additionally, Q2 reports an Exploration Target of 44-67mt of mineralised material at cut off grades of 0.88-1.35% Li2O.
• The Exploration Target is constrained to the area immediately surrounding the deposit.
• Focus has now shifted to resource expansion and infill drilling to deliver an updated MRE later this year.
• Baseline environmental studies have been initiated, alongside advanced metallurgical studies.
• Cisco lies 150km away from rail access in Matagami along the all-season Billy Diamond Highway.

Conclusion: The MRE update confirms the Cisco project as the fourth largest global spodumene deposit. Management will now look to complete an infill drilling campaign to upgrade the inferred resources. Workstreams for a PEA have also begun, with focus on bulk metallurgical testing and environmental baseline studies.

*An SP Angel analyst holds shares in Q2 Metals

Rio Tinto (RIO LN) – 7,728p, Mkt cap £93bn – 2026 production guidance intact after robust Q1 from copper, iron ore and aluminium

1. Reporting Q1 production, Chief Executive, Simon Trott, said that “Operating excellence drove 9% YoY copper equivalent production growth across our portfolio as the Oyu Tolgoi copper mine continues to ramp up as planned and our integrated aluminium business, again, delivered a strong performance”.
2. He explained that the “Pilbara iron ore mines performed strongly, while shipments were impacted by two cyclones in the quarter”
3. Mr. Trott also highlighted Rio Tinto’s “historic land exchange at Resolution Copper, with our project team focused on unlocking the next phase of one of the world's largest untapped copper deposits”.
4. Rio Tinto highlights the contribution of the operational ramp up at the Oyu Tolgoi mine in Mongolia to a 9% increase in copper operation, relative to Q1 2025, to 229kt on a consolidated basis .
5. Production and cost guidance for 2026 is maintained across all major commodity groups.
6. Oyu Tolgoi’s 102kt of copper in concentrate is 56% higher than Q1 2025 output and represents around 45% of the group total.
7. Rio Tinto confirms that Oyu Tolgoi’s ramp-up to 500ktpa of copper production between 2028 and 2036 “remains on track”.
8. Escondida’s copper in concentrate production fell by 14% compared to Q1 2025 to 77kt “driven by planned lower copper grades in line with mine sequencing and lower throughput, partially offset by” increased copper cathode output which rose 21% to 16kt.
9. Refined copper output from Kennecott declined by 20% to 34kt reflecting lower “concentrator throughput from geotechnical constraints partially offset by slightly higher recoveries”.
10. Copper production guidance is maintained in the range 800-870kt for 2025.
11. Rio Tinto also reports a 13% rise in iron ore output from the Pilbara region of WA which delivered the 2nd “highest Q1 Pilbara production since 2018” at 78.8mt.
12. “Tropical cyclones impacted Pilbara shipments by approximately 8 Mt, with around half expected to be recovered”.
13. Initial iron ore production from Simandou was “delivered to China with first sales realised in April”.
14. Full year iron-ore saes guidance is 343-366mt
15. Quarterly bauxite production declined 11% to 13.3mt and alumina output rose 6% to 2mt.
16. Today’s announcement confirms disruption to bauxite supply, presumably to Middle Eastern refineries as a result of the continuing disruption to seaborne traffic through the Gulf of Hormuz.
17. Guidance remains 58-61mt of bauxite production and 7.6-8.0mt of alumina.
18. Quarterly aluminium output of 840kt leaves annual guidance intact at 3.25-3.45mt.
19. Rio Tinto’s Q1 share of lithium carbonate output 12,700t leaves annual guidance in the range 61-64,000t.
20. Commenting on uncertainty in the global economy fuelled by “the outbreak of conflict in the Middle East” Rio Tinto says that China’s economy grew “from 4.5% YoY in Q4 2025 to 5% in Q1 2026, supported by strength in industrial production and exports”.
21. The company also says that the American economy “continues to benefit from a major AI capex boom, benefiting demand for future-facing commodities, and supportive fiscal policy”.
22. Commenting on future opportunities, Rio Tinto confirms that it is drilling at the Resolution copper project in Arizona “following completion of the land exchange in March” which saw the company secure “over 2,400 acres of land adjacent to the historic Magma copper mine … [in an exchange of] … more than 5,400 acres of environmentally and culturally sensitive land for inclusion in National Forests and National Conservation Areas”.
23. The company expects to complete its feasibility work on the proposed 10mtpa Winu copper project in WA by the end of this year
24. Feasibility work on iron projects, including the 40-50mtpa Rhodes Ridge project started this year and is expected to be completed in 2029.
25. Exploration continues “in 15 countries across six commodities”.

Conclusion: Rio Tinto is maintaining its 2026 production guidance across its commodity groups with the company emphasising the stability of its operations. Oyu Tolgoi remaining on track to deliver 500ktpa of copper production by 2028.The company notes uncertainty for the global economy resulting from the Middle East conflict but comments on the current strength of the Chinese economy and the commodity demand implications of the AI industry in the United States.

Rockfire Resources (ROCK LN) 0.14p, Mkt Cap £12m – Drilling results from Malaoi, Greece

• Rockfire Resources has released results from hole HMO-011, part of its programme to upgrade the current ‘Inferred’ resource at Malaoi to the ‘Indicated’ level.
• HMO-011, which from a map included in today’s release appears to be located at the southern end of the mineralised trend at Malaoi, intersected 2m at an average grade of 5.13% zinc, 20.2g/t germanium, 27.4g/t silver and 1.33% lead from a depth of 36.1m “below surface”.
• The company says that it “demonstrates that zinc, germanium and silver mineralisation remain strong even at the southern extremity of the licence boundary … [which, it says] … continues well beyond the current licence boundary”.
• Rockfire Resources confirms that “Extensions to the Molaoi Licence can be and will be applied for at the appropriate time”.
• The company explains that Hole HMO-015 has been “completed and drilling of hole HMO-016 currently in progress”.
• “Core samples from hole HMO-015 have already been sent to the laboratory for analysis” and preliminary indications, based on portable X-Ray Fluorescence analysis, show “a strong zone of mineralisation was intersected … at approximately 350m depth below surface”.
• CEO, David Price described HMO-011 as “a very successful and encouraging drill hole … [which] … demonstrates that zinc, germanium, lead and silver all continue to the extreme southern boundary of the Molaoi licence”.
• Mr. Price said that although this extension had been suspected the results from HMO-011 now provides evidence “and provides a clear target for exploration in the southern part of the licence to expand the resource”.
• He also commented on the successful completion of Hole HMO-015 where the “drillers were able to penetrate a fault which has caused problems with some of our recent holes in this area … [encountering] … a strongly mineralised interval … beneath the fault”.

Conclusion: Recent drilling demonstrates a continuation of mineralisation to, and beyond, the southern margin of the licence area at Maloai.  Applications to extend the licence may follow.

Savannah Resources* (SAV LN) 5.6p, Mkt Cap £144m – Company presentation

BUY – 18.5p

• The Company provided a presentation yesterday highlighting development progress at the Barroso Lithium Project, Portugal.
• Emanuel Proenca (CEO) and Henrique Freire (CFO) touched on a number of points including:
  • Latest project developments such as MRE upgrade (>1mt LCE) and Aldeia license acquisition;
  • Government support for Barroso given a €110m Portuguese State grant and Strategic Project designation under the EC Critical Raw Materials Act;
  • Improved lithium market sentiment (SC6 CIF China >$2,300/t) helping offtake and project funding discussions;
  • Ongoing land acquisitions process and discussions over land easement for more drilling and geotechnical works;
  • Reiterated active timeline ahead including DFS and RECAPE application (Jul26), FID and project funding (by YE26), construction (2027) and maiden production (2028).
• YT presentation link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QKrKrDxo-Is&t=2753s

Conclusion: We maintain strong conviction in the Barroso Lithium Project hosting the largest hard rock spodumene resource in the EU (further upside potential highlighted by Exploration Target), involving low execution risk given conventional processing flowsheet, good access to infrastructure, strategic location in the 2nd largest EV market, strong state support (€110m government grant) and supportive shareholder backing (incl AMG partnership, ~16% interest in SAV and up to 90ktpa over 10y offtake). Given the scarcity of regional spodumene sources, we continue to view Barroso is a go to source for future regional lithium refinery capacities and potentially an M&A target. With approximately 45ktpa (~25% of total production) secured under binding offtake and up to 90ktpa (~50%) conditionally agreed with AMG, management retains meaningful optionality to agree an optimal project funding structure. Strong lithium prices environment helps the process as well. With a well-capitalised balance sheet (~£17m cash) and several re-rating catalysts on the horizon, we reiterate our BUY recommendation

USA Rare Earth (USAR N) - US$22.6, Mkt cap US$4.9bn USA Rare Earths to acquire Serra Verde Group for ~$2.8bn

• USA Rare Earths is acquiring a major and relatively new REE producer in Brazil.
• The deal comprises $300m in cash plus 126.849m USAR shares.
• Serra Verde owns the open cast Pela Ema ionic clay mine in Brazil which produces all four magnetic rare earths.
• 15-year offtake and floor price agreement:  (Serra Verde shares in 70% of any upside price increase above these floors)
  • Nd - $110/kg – current ex-China spot price ~$140/kg
  • Pr - $110/kg – current ex-China spot price ~$140/kg
  • Dy - $575/kg  – current ex-China spot price ~$1,100/kg
  • Tb - $2,050/kg  – current ex-China spot price ~$4,000/kg
• Phase 1 capacity (by end-2027): ~6,400tpa TREO assuming 100% separated oxide sales
• Phase 2 expansion: potential to double ROM production to presumably enable 12,800tpa of TREO
• Average life of mine REE components:
  • NdPr – 22%
  • Dy – 19% - Sierra Verde plans to produce 164t in 2027 out of 281t produced in the western world
  • Tb – 13% - Sierra Verde plans to produce 29t in 2027 out of 74t produced in the western world
  • Y – 42% - Sierra Verde plans to produce 1,534t in 2027 out of 1,674t produced in the western world
• The DFC has also committed $565m of financing.
• Serra Verde projects $550–$650mpa EBITDA by end-2027 with ~$1.8bn EBITDA by 2030.
• Capex of >$1.1bn already spent at Serra Verde
  • This includes critical operational learning and experience in pioneering production of the first operating ionic clay deposit in the Western world.
• Expect pro-forma cash and cash eq. of ~$1.2bn + access to a further ~$1.8bn in milestone-based liquidity from DFC and US Department of Commerce loan facilities.
• Cash and available facilities are expected to hit ~$3.2bn by 2030 enabling the company to continue to buildout existing and new projects.
• Management:
  • Sir Mick Davis, Chairman of Serra Verde and former CEO of Xstrata plc will join the board as a director.
  • Thras Moraitis, CEO of Serra Verde, also former Xstrata executive will join as president and a director.
  • Michael Blitzer will continue as Chairman of the board.
  • Barbara Humpton will continue as CEO and director.
  • Rob Steele will continue as CFO..
• USA Rare Earth say Serra Verde production is expected to represent over 50% of total non-China Heavy REE supply by 2027.
• USA Rare Earths also own:
  • Less Common Metals with midstream REE alloy fabrication and strip casting in the UK and France
  • Carester (12.5%) France – midstream processing and separation R&D
  • US Metal and Magnet Making, US – commissioning midstream metal and magnet making for alloys and permanent magnets
  • Wheat Ridge, US – a demonstration facility for processing and separation R&D
  • Round Top – Sierra Blanca, US – Expected COD late-2028 4,300tpa of REE oxides
• We see other Western REE production further diversifying REE production from 2028, including:
  • Harena Rare Earths* - targeting shipments of REE concentrate in 2028
  • Mkango Resources Ltd* - currently commissioning production of REEs in the UK  
  • Rainbow Rare Earths – should start commercial production in 2028

West African Resources (WAF AU) A$3.4, Mkt Cap A$3.9bn – Burkina Faso government to pay A$175m for 25% Kiaka interest

• The Company agreed the government will pay 70bn CFA francs (A$175m) for additional 25% in the Kiaka Gold Mine, Burkina Faso.
• The transaction is expected to be completed by the end of CY26.
• The Company is planning to distribute cash proceeds from the sale to shareholders by way of a special dividend.
• The government currently holds a 15% free carry in the mine.
• The deal would take its interest to 40%.
• Kiaka, located just 45km south of Sanbrado Gold Mine, poured first gold June 2025 and is expected to run at >270kozpa over the next 10y.
• Kiaka hosts 4.6moz at 0.8g/t in Reserves and 9.2moz at 0.7g/t in resources.

LSE Group Starmine awards for Reuters Polls 2025 / 2024 commodity forecasting:

No1 for Precious Metals: CY 2025

No.1 in Precious Metals: Q1 2025

No.1 in Precious Metals: CY 2024

No.2 in Base Metals: CY 2024

Analysts

John Meyer –John.Meyer@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0490

Simon Beardsmore – Simon.Beardsmore@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0484

Sergey Raevskiy –Sergey.Raevskiy@spangel.co.uk - 0203 470 0474

Arthur Parish – Arthur.Parish@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0476

Sales

Richard Parlons –Richard.Parlons@spangel.co.uk - 0203 470 0472

Abigail Wayne –Abigail.Wayne@spangel.co.uk - 0203 470 0534

Rob Rees –Rob.Rees@spangel.co.uk - 0203 470 0535

Grant Barker – Grant.Barker@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0471

Prince Frederick House

35-39 Maddox Street

London, W1S 2PP

*SP Angel are the No1 integrated nomad and broker by number of mining brokerage clients on AIM according to the AIM Advisers Ranking Guide (joint brokerships excluded)

+SP Angel employees may have previously held, or currently hold, shares in the companies mentioned in this note.

DISCLAIMER

This note is a marketing communication and comprises non-independent research. This means it has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of its dissemination.

This note is intended only for distribution to Professional Clients and Eligible Counterparties as defined under the rules of the Financial Conduct Authority and is not directed at Retail Clients.

This note is confidential and is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced, redistributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other person or published in whole or in part, for any purpose.

This note has been issued by SP Angel Corporate Finance LLP (‘SPA’) to promote its investment services. Neither the information nor the opinions expressed herein constitutes, or is to be construed as, an offer or invitation or other solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell investments. The information contained herein is based on sources which we believe to be reliable, but we do not represent that it is wholly accurate or complete. All opinions and estimates included in this report are subject to change without notice. It is not investment advice and does not take into account the investment objectives and policies, financial position or portfolio composition of any recipient. SPA is not responsible for any errors or omissions or for the results obtained from the use of such information. Where the subject of the research is a client company of SPA we may have shown a draft of the research (or parts of it) to the company prior to publication to check factual accuracy, soundness of assumptions etc.

Distribution of this note does not imply distribution of future notes covering the same issuers, companies or subject matter.

Where the investment is traded on AIM it should be noted that liquidity may be lower and price movements more volatile.

SPA, its partners, officers and/or employees may own or have positions in any investment(s) mentioned herein or related thereto and may, from time to time add to, or dispose of, any such investment(s).

SPA is registered in England and Wales with company number OC317049.  The registered office address is Prince Frederick House, 35-39 Maddox Street, London W1S 2PP.  SPA is authorised and regulated by the UK Financial Conduct Authority and is a Member of the London Stock Exchange plc.

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SPA research ratings – Based on a time horizon of 12 months: Buy = Expected return of more than 15%, Hold = Expected return between -15% and +15%, Sell = Expected return

SP Angel Corporate Finance LLP is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority and is a Member of the London Stock Exchange.