SP Angel . Morning View . Thursday 26.03.26

MiFID II exempt information – see disclaimer below

Kodal Minerals* (KOD LN) – BUY, target 0.86p – Response to report published by Hainan

Andrada Mining (ATM LN)  – Q4 tin production rises 20% Year-on -Year

Guardian Metal Resources (GMET LN)  – Appointment of CFO

Metals One (MET1 LN)  – Progress on efforts to acquire South African gold project

Premier African Minerals (PREM LN)  – £0.75m fundraising as the Zulu lithium project, Zimbabwe aims to commission the flotation plant in Q2 2026

Strategic Minerals* (SML LN)  – Increased MRE and enhanced economics for Redmoor

Gold ($4,424/oz) eases as market watches for reescalation in Iran as Putin bans gold exports from Russia

• Gold is trading increasingly in line with Iran escalation and deescalation, having rallied strongly on reports of peace talks.
• The metal pulled back on reports that Iran was bolstering defences at Kharg Island in preparation for a potential ground assault from the US.
• Gold is also under pressure from higher US Treasury yields, with the 10 year climbing to 4.38%, albeit lower than recent highs at 4.43%.
• Higher treasury yields are lifting the US dollar, with concerns over longer term inflation impacts from fuel shortages from the Middle East.
• We note an increasing trend of political discussions suggesting central banks reduce gold holdings to fund fuel and defence needs, with Poland’s central bank chief laying out a proposal to raise $13bn to fund defense budgeting.
• Elsewhere, Putin banned the export of gold bars over 100g as of May 1st, amid ongoing economic pressures.

Iran – Regime change of some sort sounds likely – but what sort of regime will follow?

• The current regime and IRGC-QF are guilty of systemic violence with evidence of crimes against humanity executed by the IRGC-QF.
• The Iranian state has honed its instruments of repression to a level which is difficult for the people to overcome.
• Regime change is more likely to come from within the current state, the IRGC, Thar-Allah Quds Force or Basij volunteer paramilitary militia.
• We believe Trump has been talking to representatives of one of these groups which may or may not include the speaker of the Iranian parliament.
• News of the talks may well spark factional infighting on its own.
• Communication is extremely difficult in Iran with GPS jamming making it difficult for Starlink systems to lock onto overhead satellites.
• The problem is that as the narrow beam used by Starlink terminals misses its target the beam broadens in an attempt to find its satellite.
• This can enable the IRGC to track down Starlink terminals and apprehend their operators.
• Lessons learnt from Iraq and WWII is that pardoning the people / mechanics running state entities such as water, power and other essential services is important to avoid outright collapse of the state and a chaotic aftermath.
• Bombing has probably weakened the IRGC to a point where it struggles to function, though its brutality may be just as harsh.
• Public support by the US for any entity in Iran carries a high risk of turning the people against it.

Conclusion: Whichever group gains the upper hand, it will need to draw-in support from remaining forces and factions while appearing to counter US and Israeli action.

The question is, has the US / Israeli coalition broken enough of the IRGC-QF to enable a more moderate group to gain the upper hand?

IRGC wipe out ~200 IRGC Basij members in Mashhad according to Iranian regime opposition

• Netanyahu orders IAF to target armaments factories over 48 hours
• Images show long tunnels extending from mountains with most missiles directed against the Arab gulf states and Jordan.
• The Iranian regime planned to destroy surrounding Arab economies.

Zinc – Boliden shares fall on worse than expected production disruption at Garpenberg

• The Company reports the Garpenberg Polymetallic Mine in Sweden will run at 30% capacity until further notice.
• Operations were suspended at the site earlier this month following a rockfall due an elevated seismic activity.
• Operations will continue at a reduced rate for now.
• The Company estimates the effect of reduced production would amount to ~SEK400M (~$40M) at current spot prices in 1Q26.
• Garpenberg was the most profitable operation within the Group accounting for ~34% of operating profit in 2025.
• Boliden shares are down 18% today.

How the Iran conflict is reshaping global commodity markets - IG TV: https://youtu.be/oE6-k3hQDsM?si=sXBMY_UOZpvMP8EA

Oil, LNG and helium - what the Middle East conflict means for energy markets - IG TV: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FlMVGvbgE9o

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Currencies

US$1.1558/eur vs 1.1614/eur previous. Yen 159.45/$ vs 158.76/$. SAr 17.029/$ vs 16.847/$. $1.335/gbp vs $1.342/gbp. 0.694/aud vs         0.699/aud. CNY 6.903/$ vs 6.896/$.

Dollar Index 99.74 vs   99.22 previous.

Economics

US – Risk off sentiment seems to prevail as markets assess chances of a ceasefire and a reduction in hostilities in the Middle East.

• Equity futures were off with Brent and VIX up as Iran persistently rejected Trump administration push for talks to end the war.
• Traders now pricing in a 50% chance of a Fed hike this year.
• US 10-year yield moved higher overnight and is now 40bps higher since the start of the conflict

China – Exports to Iran cancelled and put on hold to many Middle Eastern destinations

• Aluminium costs rise for manufacturers as the Alba smelter in Bahrain considers shutting another pot line.
• Freight costs have risen substantially with deliveries increasingly being delayed particularly into the Middle East.
• War-risk insurance premiums have risen about 10 times (SCMP).
• Container costs had been particularly low before the conflict with Iran.
• Naphtha: used to produce ethylene, propylene and other chemicals does not currently have a strategic reserve in China.
• Commercial inventories usually cover only a few weeks of demand. Supplies of most substitutes for naphtha, including liquefied petroleum gas, are also affected by the Strait of Hormuz crisis according to S&P Global Commodity Insights.

Germany – Consumer sentiment drops in April amid rising inflation expectations.

• GfK Consumer Confidence (Apr/Mar/Est): -28.0 / -24.8 (revised from -24.7) / -27.3

UK – Household consumer confidence fell to the lowest level recorded under Keir Starmer’s Labour government.

• Expectations for the economy over the next three months fell to -53, down from -30 and the lowest since March 2024.
• “Consumer confidence collapsed as the Middle East conflict raised the prospect of higher inflation in the months ahead,” the British Retail Consortium report read.

South Korea – The Treasury will by back Won5tn ($3.3bn) worth of government bonds to stabilise financial markets.

• Purchases will be carried in two tranches (March 27 and April 1) to ease volatility in debt markets.
• Shorter term rates have been rising with 2y now trading at ~3.5%, up nearly 60bp from the start of the war in Iran.

Precious metals:

Gold US$4,438/oz vs US$4,563/oz previous

   Gold ETFs 98.2moz vs 98.2moz previous

Platinum US$1,882/oz vs US$1,971/oz previous

Palladium US$1,392/oz vs US$1,473/oz previous

Silver US$69.1/oz vs US$73.2/oz previous

   Silver ETFs 807.2moz vs 807.0moz previous

Rhodium US$10,800/oz vs US$10,800/oz previous

Base metals:   

Copper US$12,194/t vs US$12,254/t previous

Aluminium US$3,244/t vs US$3,246/t previous

Nickel US$17,230/t vs US$17,345/t previous

Zinc US$3,068/t vs US$3,050/t previous

Lead US$1,893/t vs US$1,908/t previous

Tin US$44,280/t vs US$44,600/t previous

Energy:

Oil US$104.8/bbl vs US$98.1/bbl previous

• Energy prices rebounded on ongoing military strikes as Iran’s foreign minister denied that peace talks were taking pace with the US, though conceding that messages had been exchanged through mediators.
• The EIA’s weekly petroleum report estimated a w/w US inventory builds of 6.9mb to crude and 2.5mb to distillate stocks, offset by a 2.6mb draw to gasoline, with refinery utilisation rising 1.5% to 92.9% on 13.7mb/d of domestic output.
• European energy prices also moved higher as EU natural gas storage levels fell 0.4% w/w to 28.5% full (vs 40.9% 5-Yr average), with aggregate inventory at 325TWh, though we note that the UK grid is currently benefitting from the mild weather by receiving almost 50% of its power from wind, solar and hydro sources.

Natural Gas €54.1/MWh vs €49.5/MWh previous

Uranium Futures $84.4/lb vs $84.2/lb previous

Bulk:

Iron Ore 62% Fe Spot (Singapore) US$107.4/t vs US$104.6/t

Chinese steel rebar 25mm US$465.4/t vs US$465.6/t

HCC FOB Australia US$223.0/t vs US$222.5/t

Thermal coal swap Australia FOB US$140.8/t vs US$145.5/t

Other:

Cobalt LME 3m US$56,290/t vs US$56,290/t

NdPr Rare Earth Oxide (China) US$103,214/t vs US$103,146/t

Lithium carbonate 99% (China) US$21,657/t vs US$21,383/t

China Spodumene Li2O 6%min CIF US$2,040/t vs US$2,040/t

Ferro-Manganese European Mn78% min US$1,035/t vs US$1,035/t

China Tungsten APT 88.5% FOB US$2,373/mtu vs US$2,373/mtu

China Tantalum Concentrate 30% CIF US$258/lb vs US$258/mtu

China Graphite Flake -194 FOB US$415/t vs US$415/t

Europe Vanadium Pentoxide 98% US$5.8/lb vs US$5.8/lb

Europe Ferro-Vanadium 80% US$29.1/kg vs US$29.1/kg

China Ilmenite Concentrate TiO2 US$257/t vs US$257/t

US Titanium Dioxide TiO2 >98% US$2,759/t vs US$2,759/t

China Rutile Concentrate 95% TiO2 US$1,137/t vs US$1,138/t

Spot CO2 Emissions EUA Price US$65.1/t vs US$65.1/t

Brazil Potash CFR Granular Spot US$382.5/t vs US$382.5/t

Germanium China 99.99% US$3,075.0/kg vs US$3,075.0/kg

China Gallium 99.99% US$400.0/kg vs US$400.0/kg

EV & battery news

Battery demand increasing, but use cases shifting

• Global lithium-ion battery demand was up 30% yoy in 2025 to over 1.6TWh compared to 1.3TWh in 2024.
• The four big battery giants CATL, BYD, LG Energy Solutions and CALB remained the top manufacturers, fulfilling over 60% of global EV and BESS demand.
• EVE Energy climbed to fifth place, thanks to greater demand for batteries for BESS, which the company specialises in.
• It was also the first time that a manufacturer made the top 10, producing solely for BESS, with Hithium climbing to the ninth largest producer last year.
• South Korean manufacturers who have specialised in EV battery supply have seen their market position fall as the global demand for EV batteries has tapered off on the back of regional policies.
• The US One Big Beautiful Bill Act, has seen US automakers cancel joint ventures with South Korean battery makers, including Ford's JV with SK On.

Company News:

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Kodal Minerals* (KOD LN) 0.31p, Mkt Cap £64m – Response to report published by Hainan

BUY – 0.86p

• The Company commented on the 2025 Performance Report released by Hainan Mining, a 51% partner in KMUK.
• The report referenced a 15.5mt increase in lithium resource at the Bougouni Lithium Mine, Mali.
• The estimated is an internal assessment by Hainan, based on previously released 2025 drilling results.
• The Company has not reviewed the estimate and is not aware of any independent validation to confirm JORC compliance.
• The Boumou prospect, the key area within Bougouni, previously showed potential resource growth, though geological interpretation remains ongoing.
• Any revised MRE will require independent audit and JORC assessment before being formally reported via RNS.
• The Company indicated that no JORC-compliant resource update is expected in the short term.

*SP Angel acts as financial advisor and broker to Kodal Minerals.

Andrada Mining (ATM LN) 3.2p, Mkt cap £65m – Q4 tin production rises 20% Year-on -Year

• Andrada Mining reports the production of 1,704t of tin concentrate containing 1,036t of metal from the Uis mine in Namibia during the year to 28th February (FY 2025 1,507t of concentrate with tin content of 932t).
• Production during the final quarter, which CEO, Anthony Viljoen, described as “a defining quarter for Andrada” was 453t of concentrate with a metal content of 271t.
• Mr. Viljoen, welcomed the conclusion of its partnership with ACAM, via its subsidiary, BWCAM, to progress the Brandburg West tungsten/tin/copper project.
• An “initial USD10 million (£7.3 million) investment from BWCAM was received during the Quarter to initiate investigations on tailings recovery potential, feasibility study preparation and pit optimisation”.
• He also commented that the initial work at Lithium Ridge “indicates that Lithium Ridge could emerge as a significant lithium discovery. The accelerated drilling programme in partnership with SQM, will allow for rapid realisation of the inherent potential in this deposit”.
• Mr. Viljoen also commented on the “extension of our long-standing partnership with our tin off taker, Thaisarco, … [at the  Uis mine] …as well as the injection of capital from the European Investment Bank's technical assistance facility for the integration of the lithium processing circuit, further adds value as we scale production”.

Guardian Metal Resources (GMET LN) 237.5p, Mkt Cap £481m – Appointment of CFO

• Guardian Metal Resources reports the appointment of Mr. Jake Mather as Chief Financial Officer to replace the incumbent, Ben Hodges, who is stepping down from executive responsibilities but will “remain on the Board as a Non-Executive Director”.
• Chairman, JT Starzecki, welcomed Mr. Mather’s appointment saying that he brings “a wealth of experience, including as leader of financial divisions within fast-growing, natural resource organisations, suited to Guardian Metal as we progress the development of our U.S.-based tungsten projects”.
• Mr. Starzecki thanked Ben Hodges for his contribution “in defining and delivering the Company's strategy to date,  including equity raises and the acquisition of Tempiute” and welcomed his continuing contribution in a non-executive capacity.

Metals One (MET1 LN) 1.69p, Mkt Cap £18m – Progress on efforts to acquire South African gold project

• Metals One confirms that is previously announced plans to acquire the assets of Vantage Goldfields in the Barberton region of South Africa from Business Rescue are to be put to creditors of Vantage Mining at a meeting on 9th April.
• “The Vantage Assets entered Business Rescue after the 2016 Lily mine collapse” and the Business Rescue Practitioner has arranged the meeting, which today’s announcement describes as “a key breakthrough in … [Metals One’s] … long-running effort to acquire the Vantage Assets” for an offer price of US$40m.
• Managing Director, Daniel Maling, confirmed that “Against the backdrop of the upcoming creditor meeting … [via its LBR subsidiary, MetalsOne] … is now progressing term sheets with several parties regarding project level financing for the remaining commitments in respect of the acquisition”.

Premier African Minerals (PREM LN) 0.01p, Mkt Cap £2.9m – £0.75m fundraising as the Zulu lithium project, Zimbabwe aims to commission the flotation plant in Q2 2026

• Premier African Minerals, which issued a progress report on the installation of the flotation plant at its’ Zulu lithium project in Zimbabwe, yesterday has raised an additional £750,000 via the issue of an additional ~5.9bn shares at a price of 0.0126p/share.
• We estimate that the new shares represent around 25% of the enlarged company.
• The new funds are intended to “support ongoing operational activities and the continued installation and commissioning of the Xinhai Flotation Plant, with the objective of advancing Zulu through the commissioning and optimisation phases towards the production of spodumene concentrate at commercially acceptable grades and recoveries”.
• Commenting on progress at the Zulu project, Managing Director, Graham Hill, said that the company is “very encouraged by the continued and tangible progress being made at the Zulu Lithium Project, particularly with the installation and advancement of the Xinhai flotation plant”.
• He commented on the “broader market backdrop”, including geopolitical and market uncertainty saying that although “these dynamics are not unique to Premier, they do influence market perception, often disproportionately to both the underlying progress being made on the ground and the value of projects”.
• The latest fundraising follows a £500,000 raising earlier this month and a £1m funding in January.

Conclusion: New injection of funds as commissioning of the flotation plant is targeted for next quarter as company aims for steady-state production of spodumene concentrate.

Strategic Minerals* (SML LN) 4.9p, Mkt Cap £138m – Increased MRE and enhanced economics for Redmoor

• Strategic Minerals has released its updated mineral resources estimate (MRE) and its economic sensitivity analysis on the company’s Redmoor tungsten/tin/copper project in Cornwall.
• The new MRE shows an ‘Inferred’ resource of 17.4mt at an average grade of 0.49% WO3, 0.17% tin, 0.44% copper and 5.8g/t silver at a US$110/t NSR cut-off.  This represents a 49% increase in resource tonnage and a 31% rise in the WO3 content of the previous, 2019 estimate.
• For reference, the previous estimate was 11.7m ‘Inferred’ tonnes at an average grade of 0.56% WO3, 0.17% tin and 0.50% copper.
• The increased resource tonnage provides a “2.4x increase in potential mine life from 12 to 29 years, at … [the] … 2020 Scoping Study production rate”.
• The increased resource tonnage lifts the contained tin content by 55% compared to the 2019 estimate and offsets a 12% lower copper grade to increase the overall copper content by 30%.
• Reflecting the polymetallic character and zonation of the Redmoor mineralisation the estimate recognises the following ‘High Grade Domains (HGDs) for tungsten, tin and copper and additional low- grade Sheeted Vein System (SVS) mineralisation:
  • A Tungsten HGD containing 7.30mt at an average grade of 0.83% tungsten trioxide (WO3), 0.12% tin, 0.53% copper and 7.0g/t silver (reported as 0.98% on a WO3 Equivalent basis); and
  • A Tin HGD containing 1.95mt at an average grade of 0.14% WO3, 0.50% tin, 0.50% copper and 7.6g/t silver (reported as 0.44% on a WO3 Eq basis); and
  • A Copper HGD containing 8.02mt at an average grade of 0.28% WO3, 0.13% tin, 0.34% copper and 4.3g/t silver (reported as 0.40% on a WO3 Eq basis); and
  • A low-grade SVS zone containing 120,000t at an average grade of 0.17% WO3, 0.10% tin, 0.16% copper and 5.8g/t silver (reported as 0.25% on a WO3 Eq basis).
• The estimate incorporates Cornwall Resources’ 2025 and earlier drilling campaigns, the results of last year’s relogging and sampling programme of the earlier phases of drilling as well as results from drilling conducted by Southwest Minerals (SWM) during the 1980s.
• The new estimate rests on a total of 7,247 drill-hole sample assays for tungsten trioxide, tin and copper, 5,211 results for the penalty element, arsenic and 4,360 silver assays and is reported at an NSR cut-off of US$110/tonne.
• The announcement confirms that “The MRE has been reported and classified in accordance with the JORC Code (2012) and has been evaluated for RPEEE, assuming … [sub-level open stoping] … underground mining methods” as also envisaged in the 2020 Scoping Study.
• We note some potentially significant differences between the estimate released today and the 2019 MRE, including:
  • The new MRE reports resources “below −20 mRL” incorporating a “200 m crown pillar below surface … to ensure that underground Mineral Resources are not reported beneath surface dwellings where, due to local planning constraints, there is no reasonable expectation that underground blasting could occur”, while the 2019 estimate “reported mineralisation to surface”.
  • Unlike earlier estimates the MRE reflects “optimised stope shapes to satisfy the requirement for” the estimated resource having a ‘Reasonable Prospect for Eventual Economic Extraction’ (RPEEE).  In our opinion, this provides a more robust estimate than its predecessors.
  • Following validation by drilling ‘twin’ holes during the 2025 campaign, the “updated estimate incorporates historical SWM drilling and sampling data from the 1980s, improving geological interpretation and mineralisation continuity”.
• Geologically, the principal mineralised system at Redmoor is the Sheeted Vein System (SVS), which forms the main component of the Mineral Resource. The SVS has been interpreted to extend for approximately 1,000 m along strike and to a down-dip vertical extent of approximately 760 m below surface or to approximately 560 m below the crown safety pillar.
• The SVS strikes approximately 070° and dips at approximately 70° to the north, averages approximately 80m thickness and hosts “Sixteen High Grade Domains (HGDs) … within and largely enveloped by the broader SVS mineralised system”.
• We note that the individual “HGDs … [which are ] … typically narrow, with an average true thickness of approximately 2 m … [and] … form a package of narrow veins within the SVS … follow the same general structural orientation as the SVS, with similar strike and dip, although individual veins exhibit variability in their interpreted strike and down-dip continuity”.
• The HGDs “also exhibit a subtle down-plunge continuity towards the west, broadly reflecting the geometry of the underlying Kit Hill granite intrusion which dips beneath the mineralised structures”.
• Commenting on the new MRE, Dennis Rowland, Managing Director of the operating company, Cornwall Resources, said that the new resource “alongside the significant improvements in metallurgical recovery for tungsten, and confirmation of recoverability of silver, have directly contributed to improved project economics … [and] … delivered a major step change in its resource base”.
• Mr. Rowland acknowledged the support of UK Shared Prosperity Fund grants and the “incredibly hard work and performance” of the Cornwall Resources team, as well as the “team at Cornwall Council, the Board for their guidance and support, and our consultants for their efforts”.
• Mark Burnett, Executive Director of Strategic Minerals, welcomed the “significant increases in tonnages, contained tungsten and other metals, and the inclusion of silver … [in the new MRE and confirmed that the] … Company will now rapidly progress to PFS to test these new production scenarios and optimise the model”.
• As well as the MRE, today’s announcement describes resource expansion potential with the publication of JORC (2012) compliant ‘Exploration Target’ of 1.8-3.4mt with grades in the range 0.4-0.6% (WO3, 0.08-0.12% tin, 0.2-0.3% copper and 2.6-4.0g/t silver.
• Future realisation of this target level could potentially lift resources to around 20mt which, we believe could put the Redmoor deposit among the fifth to 10th largest European tungsten resource tonnages.
• Today, Strategic Minerals has also published an updated ‘Economic Sensitivity Analysis’ for Redmoor showing that using a base case price for the benchmark ammonium paratungstate for tungsten trioxide of US$1,200/mtu (currently ~US$2,370/mtu), a tin price of US$38,000/t (currently ~US$44,600/t), a copper price of US$11,000/t (currently ~US$12,250/t) and a silver price of US$75$/t (currently US$73/oz) a pre-production capital investment of US$109.7m generates an after-tax NPV8% of US$1,540m and an IRR of 40% over “the potential 29-year life of mine”.
• Operating costs for mining are estimated at US$70.21/t and processing costs at a 600ktpa rate are US$40.26/t.
• Sensitivity analysis presented in the announcement shows that at commodity prices of US$1,800/mtu for APT, US$44,000/t for tin, US$12,500/t for copper and US$85/oz for silver, the NPV8% increases to US$2,718m and the IRR rises to 55%.
• A more pessimistic sensitivity using US$704/mtu for APT, US$32,500/t for tin, US$9,000/t for copper and US$65/oz for silver, reduces the NPV8% to US$550m and the IRR to 22%.
• Future, pre-feasibility study and additional resource estimation, work provides an opportunity to review the planned mining rate and “assess a range of processing throughputs, which may improve project economics by reducing the impact of discounting in later years of the mine plan”.
• Mr. Rowland described the “newly updated MRE and economic sensitivity analysis … [as a] … testament to the world-class nature of the Redmoor tungsten-tin-copper deposit”.
• Mr. Burnett said that the “Economic Sensitivity Analysis builds upon the 2020 Scoping Study … [and shows that] … Redmoor now presents a truly strategic underground tungsten development project in the United Kingdom”.
• He also commented that, given the increased resource volume, Strategic Minerals believes that “there is further upside to be demonstrated within the PFS to follow … [saying that] … Redmoor’s PFS will … test increases in annual production volumes versus economics, with the potential to establish an increase in production rates”.
• SP Angel plans to issue further comment following further examination of the details of the revised MRE and economics of the Redmoor project.

Conclusion: The updated MRE delivers an increased and more resilient resource, with higher tungsten grades, and a more robust model for the Redmoor project providing a potentially wider range of future development options as the project moves into prefeasibility.  Improved commodity prices and metallurgical recovery rates have boosted economic returns.

*SP Angel acts as Nomad and broker to Strategic Minerals

LSE Group Starmine awards for Reuters Polls 2025 / 2024 commodity forecasting:

No1 for Precious Metals: CY 2025

No.1 in Precious Metals: Q1 2025

No.1 in Precious Metals: CY 2024

No.2 in Base Metals: CY 2024

Analysts

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Sales

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