SP Angel . Morning View . Friday 28.11.25

MiFID II exempt information – see disclaimer below

African Gold (A1G AU) SUSPENDED– Trading halt requested on takeover

Allied Gold (AAUC CN) – Kurmuk exploration strategy to extend mine life and boost production

Beowulf Mining* (BEM LN)– Interim results

European Metals (EMH LN) – Up to EUR360m government grant for Cinovec

Galantas Gold* (GAL LN) – 3Q25 update

Galileo Resources Plc (GLR N) - Conditional Co-Operation and Project development agreement with Jubilee Metals Group on Molefe Project in Zambia

Jubilee Metals (JLP LN)

Metals Exploration (MTL LN) – Opportunity to expand the initial open-pit at La India

Serabi Gold (SRB LN) – Interim results

We are sponsoring the Oxford Mining Club Winter Drinks at the Waldorf Hilton Hotel

• Monday 1st December from 5:00.
• Click link for tickets: https://www.eventbrite.co.uk/e/the-oxford-mining-club-winter-drinks-reception-tickets-1828856441849?aff=oddtdtcreator

Copper – price hits $11,000/t again on the potential for shortages in China

• Enough of the world’s physical copper is sitting in the US that it is seen causing supply issues in China.
• So much of the world’s inventory of physical copper was moved to US warehouses in anticipation of Trump’s copper tariffs that this is leading to physical shortages elsewhere.
• Traders have continued to take advantage of premiums for physical copper on Comex.
• There is much talk of negative fees being offered by Chinese smelters and refiners, but remember the smelters take every last scrap of by-product metal they can get away with and they also offer lower than the market rate for selling your copper at the end of the process so the fees are not as negative as they sound.
• Codelco has also raised its premium for copper cathode to $350/t
• Copper futures have risen to RMB 86,920 ($12,278/t) for the SCFcv1 with the benchmark 3m copper contract at $10,927/t  (Reuters)
• Supply remains constrained going into 2026, with disruptions from Grasberg, Kamoa Kakula, El Teniente and QB.
• BHP’s second attempt at Anglo, although unsuccessful, highlights the world’s largest miners’ sustained ambitions in bolstering their producing copper assets.
• CAPEX inflation has continued to hit the mining sector, and majors are choosing to buy over build.
• We expect this theme to continue from western miners, further constraining copper supply in the long term.

China auto sales to total 34m with 6.8m exports

• China’s total auto sales in 2025 are forecast to top 34m units, up from 31.4m in 2024.
• Sales of new-energy vehicles (NEVs) are expected to hit around 16m units, roughly 24% increase yoy.
• Vehicle exports are forecast at 6.8m units, implying a 16% increase in exports compared with last year.
• In the first 10 months of 2025 total sales reached 27.7m, up 12.5%, and NEV sales were 12.91m, up 32%.
• In the same period, exports included nearly 2m NEVs, up 87% yoy.
• Growth may slow in the remaining months as many cities have phased out trade-in subsidies and the NEV purchase-tax exemption ends at year-end potentially dampening demand.

Japan - Industrial production rises 1.4% mom in October on higher vehicle production

• The rise in IP beat market expectations for a -0.6% fall.
• Vehicle production rose 6.6% following a US Tariff cut 15% from 27.5% in September.
• Retail sales also rose 1.7% yoy vs expectations for 0.8%.

Russia – The US provided Moscow with the latest peace deal terms that will be discussed at planned Russia/US meetings next week.

Ukraine – Anti corruption authorities search the home of Andriy Yermal, President Zelenskyy’s chief of staff, today.

• The search is related to the ongoing “Operation Midas” investigation into corruption in the nation’s energy sector.
• The allegations included kickbacks from contractors hired to build fortifications protecting energy generating assets from Russian strikes.

IG TV Commodity Corner (18/11/25):  https://www.youtube.com/live/_cghAS9Wnnk?si=YQpSPWrZ5_tzX0ha&t=4718 

ii TV - Macro trends, indicators, small caps.

• Precious metals, gold and copper : https://vimeo.com/fiveminutepitchtv/review/1125894076/5ccc1f796b
• FTSE 100 stocks, small-cap and lithium: https://vimeo.com/fiveminutepitchtv/review/1125892775/a44f96f5a1

Economics

UK - Car production fell 24% yoy in October to 59,000 following a 27% yoy fall in September (SMMT)

• Some of this was due to the cyberattack at Jaguar Land Rover
• UK car production is down 10% yoy YTD at 602,000. Previous
• Commercial van production fell 75% to 3,000 vehicles in October and is 60% lower YTD at 42,200.
• The sector represents around 10% of UK GDP

Currencies

US$1.1571/eur vs1.1592/eur previous. Yen 156.37/$ vs 156.19/$. SAr 17.168/$ vs 17.157/$. $1.320/gbp vs $1.323/gbp. 0.652/aud vs 0.653/aud. CNY 7.077/$ vs 7.081/$.

Dollar Index 99.72 vs 99.62 previous.

Precious metals:

Gold US$4,166/oz vs US$4,166/oz previous

Gold ETFs 97.5moz vs 97.3moz previous

Platinum US$1,648/oz vs US$1,641/oz previous

Palladium US$1,415/oz vs US$1,434/oz previous

Silver US$53.9/oz vs US$53.9/oz previous

Rhodium US$7,925/oz vs US$7,925/oz previous

Base metals:   

Copper US$10,980/t vs US$10,929/t previous

Aluminium US$2,841/t vs US$2,845/t previous

Nickel US$14,825/t vs US$14,845/t previous

Zinc US$3,026/t vs US$3,045/t previous

Lead US$1,990/t vs US$1,978/t previous

Tin US$38,790/t vs US$38,330/t previous

Energy:

Oil US$63.5/bbl vs US$63.0/bbl previous

Natural Gas €29.3/MWh vs €29.0/MWh previous

• With US markets closed for Thanksgiving yesterday, international energy prices were little changed overnight and market focus continues to be on the proposed peace plans to end the war in Ukraine.
• The East Africa Court of Justice (EACJ) has ruled against a legal attempt by civil society organisations (CSOs) to challenge the development of the 900-mile East African Crude Oil Pipeline (EACOP), which will have capacity to export 210kb/d from the TotalEnergies-operated Lake Albert oil project in Uganda to the Tanga port in Tanzania.

Uranium Futures $76.0/lb vs $76.0/lb previous

Bulk:   

Iron Ore 62% Fe Spot (Singapore) US$102.1/t vs US$106.6/t

Chinese steel rebar 25mm US$450.4/t vs US$449.9/t

HCC FOB Australia US$195.0/t vs US$195.5/t

Thermal coal swap Australia FOB US$110.5/t vs US$110.5/t

Other:  

Cobalt LME 3m US$48,570/t vs US$48,570/t

NdPr Rare Earth Oxide (China) US$78,710/t vs US$78,101/t

Lithium carbonate 99% (China) US$12,859/t vs US$12,852/t

China Spodumene Li2O 6%min CIF US$1,145/t vs US$1,145/t

Ferro-Manganese European Mn78% min US$1,035/t vs US$1,035/t

China Tungsten APT 88.5% FOB US$743/mtu vs US$743/mtu

China Tantalum Concentrate 30% CIF US$95/lb vs US$95/mtu

China Graphite Flake -194 FOB US$400/t vs US$400/t

Europe Vanadium Pentoxide 98% US$5.5/lb vs US$5.5/lb

Europe Ferro-Vanadium 80% US$23.6/kg vs US$23.6/kg

China Ilmenite Concentrate TiO2 US$272/t vs US$272/t

US Titanium Dioxide TiO2 >98% US$2,961/t vs US$2,961/t

China Rutile Concentrate 95% TiO2 US$1,109/t vs US$1,109/t

Spot CO2 Emissions EUA Price US$65.1/t vs US$65.1/t

Brazil Potash CFR Granular Spot US$352.5/t vs US$352.5/t

Germanium China 99.99% US$3,075.0/kg vs US$3,075.0/kg

China Gallium 99.99% US$395.0/kg vs US$395.0/kg

Company news

African Gold (A1G AU) SUSPENDED– Trading halt requested on takeover

• Junior West African gold explorer African Gold has requested a trading halt pending a change of control transaction.
• African Gold holds the Blaffo Guetto project in the Cote d’Ivoire.
• Blaffo Guetto recently saw an upgraded MRE of:
  • 12.4mt at 2.5g/t Au for 989koz.
• The Project lies near Perseus’ Yaoure mine, Allied’s Bonikro mine and Agbaou mine.
• However, Montage Gold, who are developing the Kone asset to the north, hold 17.5% of African Gold shares.
• We see Montage as the likely acquiror, given their intention to become a multi-asset producer and interesting in securing high-grade ore for the Kone mill.
• However, there is a chance a nearby operator like Perseus may take an interest, with Blaffo Guetto >800km from the Kone mill.

Allied Gold (AAUC CN) C$27, Mkt Cap C$3.4bn – Kurmuk exploration strategy to extend mine life and boost production

• Multi-asset African producer Allied Gold provide an update on their exploration strategy at Kurmuk, Ethiopia.
• Kurmuk is currently in construction, with first pour due 1H26.
• Kurmuk:
  • Reserves: 60mt at 1.4g/t Au for 2.7moz
  • CAPEX $500m, LOM production 240koz at <$950/oz
• Today the Company reports their five-year exploration goal for Kurmuk to reach 5moz in MRE, representing an additional 1.5moz.
• Allied is aiming to find 0.5moz within 10km of the Kurmuk mill to sustain initial gold production levels of c.290kozpa.

Beowulf Mining* (BEM LN) 9.3p, Mkt Cap £5.5m – Interim results

• Beowulf reports results to 30th September.
• Beowulf continues to derisk the Kallak iron ore mine, working on Environmental Permit approval and concentrate transport solutions for the PFS.
• At Grafintec, the Company has applied for tax credits under Business Finland and secured a site reservation at Keltakallio.
• Company reported £362k in cash at 30th September, and is currently working on near term financing solution.
• As reported on Wednesday, Beowulf has received ‘a number of term sheets’ and discussions are at an ‘advanced stage.’
• Beowulf’s primary focus is on delivering the PFS and Environmental Permit application at Kallak, alongside advancing GAMP through pilot testing, permitting and DFS.
• Beowulf is exploring potential funding solutions to minimise dilution to existing shareholders.
• Beowulf reports it has received a non-binding cash offer of €4m for its Vardar Minerals subsidiary, with HoT negotiations ongoing.
• The Company is ‘hopeful’ that the transaction can be concluded within the coming months.
• Additionally, Beowulf reports it is seeking separate funding for Grafintec, its wholly owned subsidiary which holds the GAMP Project.
• The Company has appointed a financial adviser to raise €5m in equity through the sale of shares in Grafintec.
• Additionally, Grafintec has applied to Business Finland's Research, Development and Piloting loan scheme for a loan of €7 million.
• This is intended to support the development and commercialisation of products and production methods, with terms up to 10 years and an interest rate 3% below the base rate.
• Grafintec financing progress is expected over the next three to six months.
• In the interim, Beowulf is seeking short-term funding to support working capital needs.
• Beowulf is also working on additional funding sources from EU-backed schemes.

*SP Angel acts as Nomad and Broker to Beowulf Mining, An SP Angel analyst recently visited Kallak

European Metals (EMH LN) 19p, Mkt Cap £28m – Up to EUR360m government grant for Cinovec

• The Company reports that the Cinovec Lithium Project secured an up to EUR360m from the Czech government.
• The grant is awarded under the “Strategic Investments for a Climate-Neutral Economy” programme run by the Ministry  of  Industry  and  Trade  of  the  Czech  Republic.
• The programme supports development of critical raw materials supply chains including lithium..
• Final amount to be confirmed upon formal award and may be less than the maximum EUR360m.
• Formal award is awaiting completion of administrative processes.
• Under grant conditions, the project completion required no later than 31 December 2032.
• The Cinovec Lithium Project is owned by Geomet s.r.o that is a 49/51 JV between EMH and CEZ.
• CEZ is a leading energy group in Western and Central Europe active generation and trading of power and heat.
• Cinovec hosts ~7.4mt LCE in resource in lithium bearing mica, zinnwaldite.
• The underground operation is expected to mine 34.5mt at 0.65% Li2O in reserves delivering 22.5ktpa LCE over 20y LOM.
• The stock is up ~50% in London.

Galantas Gold* (GAL LN) 4.5p, Mkt Cap £6m – 3Q25 update

• The Company reports quarterly operating and financial update.
• 3Q25 loss C$5.0m including a C$2.9m charge on divestment of a 80% interest in the Omagh Project.
• G&A C$1.8m (3Q24: C$1.2m).
• No commercial production recorded at Omagh during the period and no revenues booked.
• Only US$0.6m in concentrate sales reported (3Q24: US$0.5m) that were offset against development costs.
• In September, the Company exchanged ~US$14m in outstanding loans due to Ocean Partners for a 80% interest in Omagh.
• Net Debt down to C$3m (Dec24: C$20m) following debt refinancing.
• Closing cash balance C$20k, although, the Company is raising C$13.5 in upsized placing in November.
• Proceeds to be used for acquisition and follow up exploration programme at the Indiana Gold Copper Project in Chile.
• Indiana Gold Copper Project is being acquired through a deal with RDL Mining, owners of the option to take 100% in Indiana.
• RDL to be acquired in all share deal whereby each of RDL shareholder (three in total) to receive 44m GAL shares each for a total 132m, equivalent to ~49.99% of total (pre new money raised).
• That would potentially drop to ~31% post equity raise.

*SP Angel acts as Broker to Galantas Gold

Galileo Resources Plc (GLR N) 0.77p, Mkt cap £11m - Conditional Co-Operation and Project development agreement with Jubilee Metals Group on Molefe Project in Zambia

Jubilee Metals (JLP LN) 2.95, Mkt cap £92m

• Galileo Resources has signed a conditional co-operation and project development agreement with Jubilee Metals in relation to the Molefe project in Zambia.
• The idea is to use the agreement to explore and potentially discover and develop small to medium-sized mining ideas withing the Zambian copper belt.
• Under the agreement offers Galileo the right to earn up to 23.75% in the Molefe Mine for $700,000 of funding with Jubilee retaining a 71.25% interest. 5% is held by a local Zambian firm.
• The mine is ramping up production to 4 500t per month of ore from the mine grading ~>2% copper while stockpiling lower grade ~0.7% copper on site. The lower-grade stockpile is already at 2.2mt since end-October.
• The team can now accelerate work on the on-site process plant facility.
• Management are also working on expanding the mine plan and on drilling to expand the identified resource.
• Galileo is also supplying an experienced geological team including some younger geologists and in-house mining engineering expertise.

Metals Exploration (MTL LN) 11.25p, Mkt Cap £324m – Opportunity to expand the initial open-pit at La India

• Metals Exploration reports that exploration of its La India project in Nicaragua has identified mineral expansion opportunities of between – 1-300m for its initial North Pit.
• The company explains that the exploration, including channel sampling of “fresh mineralised outcrops” exposed during road development to the North Pit has uncovered high grade mineralisation at the intersection of the La India and Teresa mineralised structures which offer a future drilling target.
• The exploration has also demonstrated “the continuity of the La India N-S trend … [exposing] … a hydrothermal breccia in contact with a massive quartz vein … [which correlates with] … previous trench results to the north”.
• Metals Exploration explains that the additional geological insight into the near-surface mineralisation represents an “immediate opportunity to expand the Phase 1 North pit by approximately 100 metres” and that it will drill “to test the continuity of the newly exposed veins” as a priority task.
• Follow-up work will also include “detailed structural mapping around the La India-Teresa intersection zone to refine targets, and to map the NNW-trending breccia system (CHN-016) to determine its role as a secondary conduit” for mineralisation.
• CEO, Darren Bowden described the “discovery of additional near-surface mineralisation… [as] … an immediate opportunity to enhance recoverable ounces and potentially improve Phase 1 economics” at La India.
• Since acquiring the project earlier this year, Metals Exploration has accelerated the project development and has indicated that it expects initial gold production in late 2026 with output rising to 126koz in 2027 and 132koz in 2028.
• As the development of La India progresses the company is identifying additional opportunities, with the possibility of a larger initial North Pit announced today.

Conclusion: Metals Exploration has identified the possibility of a larger initial open pit at La India as it builds its knowledge of the project and works towards production next year.

Serabi Gold (SRB LN) 278p, Mkt Cap £209m – Interim results

• Brazilian gold producer Serabi reports interim results for the period to 30th September.
• The Company produced 32.6koz over the nine-month period (27.5koz same period 2024), supporting $104.5m in revenue.
• Company generated $48.2m in EBITDA over the period, vs $24.7m same period last year.
• Net cash at quarter-end of $33m, vs $24.6m in 2Q25.
• AISC increased 1% yoy at $1,816/oz.
• Company reports EPS of 46c/share over the nine-month period, vs 23.6c/share last year.
• Serabi is focusing on exploration and resource development drilling at Palito Complex and Coringa.
• 27,937m have been drilled across both projects as the Company aims to increase resources to 1.5-2moz.
• Coringa is expected to double Serabi’s 30-40kozpa production profile in the coming years.

LSE Group Starmine awards for 2025 / 2024 commodity forecasting:

No.1 in Precious Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 1. ranking for Precious Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls for Q1 2025

No.1 in Precious Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 1. ranking for Precious Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls 2024

No.2 in Base Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 2. ranking for Base Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls 2024

Analysts

John Meyer –John.Meyer@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0490

Simon Beardsmore – Simon.Beardsmore@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0484

Sergey Raevskiy –Sergey.Raevskiy@spangel.co.uk - 0203 470 0474

Arthur Parish – Arthur.Parish@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0476

Sales

Richard Parlons –Richard.Parlons@spangel.co.uk - 0203 470 0472

Abigail Wayne –Abigail.Wayne@spangel.co.uk - 0203 470 0534

Rob Rees –Rob.Rees@spangel.co.uk - 0203 470 0535

Grant Barker – Grant.Barker@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0471

George Krokos - george.krokos@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0486

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*SP Angel are the No1 integrated nomad and broker by number of mining brokerage clients on AIM according to the AIM Advisers Ranking Guide (joint brokerships excluded)

+SP Angel employees may have previously held, or currently hold, shares in the companies mentioned in this note.

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