SP Angel . Morning View . Friday 21.11.25

MiFID II exempt information – see disclaimer below

We are sponsoring the Oxford Mining Club Winter Drinks

• Waldorf Hilton Hotel, London - 1st December.
• Click link for tickets: https://www.eventbrite.co.uk/e/the-oxford-mining-club-winter-drinks-reception-tickets-1828856441849?aff=oddtdtcreator

Capital Limited (CAPD LN) – £31m placing to advance growth in Drilling, Mining and MSALABS divisions

Jubilee Metals (JLP LN) – Quarterly production results as Molefe ramp up underway

Lundin Gold (LUN CN) – Drilling results from Fruta del Norte intercept 492g/t Au over 5.2m

New Frontier Minerals* (NFM LN) – Trading Halt on ASX

Gold ($4,050/oz) holds firm amid wider market volatility

• Gold has held flat overnight amid a wider market sell-off following the cancellation of key NFP data.
• Gold has held stronger vs silver, platinum and palladium, which fell 3.6%, 1.4% and 2.4% overnight.
• Bitcoin is down 10%, suggesting a wider unwinding of leveraged positions in the cryptocurrency sector.
• Base metals also corrected overnight, with zinc, copper and aluminium all down.
• Gold seems to have shaken out some more speculative market participants following its sell-off from recent record highs.
• As a result, we would not be surprised to see a continued period of consolidation, akin to the c.$3,300/oz rangebound level traded over much of the summer.
• We expect a continuation of the wider theme of BRIC countries increasing their foreign reserve allocations to gold, providing a form of price floor for gold going forward.

Markets – Investor move into asset-back buying as deleveraging and trading into risk-off positions takes shine off Technology stocks

• This year’s run in AI, Tech and gold mining stocks has made it all the easier for funds to lock in profits, reduce their leverage / risk and bank their bonuses ahead of the Christmas break.
• Alot of leveraged trades are unwinding ahead of Christmas in US tech, Bitcoin and possibly precious metals.
• Nvidia’s positive earnings report created an opportunity for leveraged funds to sell into and take profit ahead of the Christmas break.
• Palantir -6%, D-Wave Quantum -12%, IonQ -14% all fell
• Asset-backed stocks outperformed as investors looked for safety from potential margin calls in Tech which is seen as overleveraged.
• Many ‘Prime Brokers’ will be happy to reduce risk, knowing their borrowers should be in good shape to come back next year.
• Key factors which may change over the Christmas break:
  • AI and its semiconductors – much can change in a month over Christmas,
  • Trump Tariffs,
  • Ukraine – Russian advance or an unpalatable deal between Trump and Russia,
  • Cryptocurrency fraud – more frauds being exposed as investors move to asset-backed tokens,
  • Carry Trade – Yen / US$ as Japan approves US$135bn of stimulus including temporary tax cuts.
• Bitcoin prices continue to fall to $82,277. We suspect holders might be moving profits into more asset-backed Stablecoins, eg gold-backed cryptocurrencies.
• The Tokenisation of gold is seen as a recent driver of gold prices as it makes gold, cheaper, faster and easier to trade.
  • Tether Gold (XAUt) - 1oz gold token,
  • Paxos Gold (PAXG) - 1oz gold token,
  • Kinesis Gold (KAU) – 1g gold token,
  • Goldcoin (GLC) - not pegged to physical gold with value determined by market supply / demand dynamics.
• Cyrptocurrencies are reported to have lost some $1.2tn in the past six weeks.

Copper US$10,659/t – Prices supported by admission of problems at Chilean state miner

• COCHILCO, the national copper agency in Chile sees copper prices rising as a result of disruption and late delivery of projects at Codelco.
• Codelco’s Rajo Inca project at the Salvador mine is suffering significant delays and cost overruns while the underground ramp-up Chuquicamata is also running slow.
• El Teniente, which suffered a major seismic event in the year is dragging Codelco production lower.
• Codelco is now forecasting ~1.4mt, eg significantly lower than its previous 1.7mt copper output target which will have a host of analysts revising their copper surpluses into deficit forecasts.
• We suggest, consumers who have been putting short-term copper back into the market on lower growth forecasts reverse their strategy and hang onto the metal as the new year looks likely to start of with new stock building in preparation for a developing deficit.
• Premiums for physical metal are already rising in certain locations indicating concern amongst certain consumers.
• Freeport seemed more hopeful on the restoration of production from Grasberg than some technical ‘block caving’ experts who see potential for the rock in the cave area to cement together and jam-up the whole underground mine!
• Congo: a bridge collapse at the Kalando artisanal copper, cobalt mine in Mulondo on Saturday is reported to have potentially killed 49 and disrupted supplies.
• While Kalando is a relatively small mine it is symptomatic of much of the DRC’s 3.1mt copper output.

Oil & Gas: UK oil and gas sector remains on tenterhooks ahead of next week’s anticipated publication of the government’s updated North Sea Strategy policy.

• The document is expected to include proposed changes to the flawed Energy Profits Levy and the future of the licensing and regulatory framework.
• The AIM-listed E&P sector has rallied over the last six months mainly due to a Trump-directed re-evaluation of the speed and extent of the energy transition, as investors adjust expectations higher for oil and gas demand even in the face of near-term softening of global energy prices.
• In our view, the UK needs all types of energy and should adopt a more balanced “all”, rather than an “either or” approach, which would better serve the government’s ambitions on climate, energy costs and security of supply.

Biotech takes stock following 35% rise in the Nasdaq Biotechnology Index (NBI) over the past six months

• Following the release of Q3 earnings from major pharmaceutical firms, the Nasdaq Biotech Index has displayed notable volatility, trending slightly downward overall.
• The Healthcare sector is entering its traditional cool-off period before the busy January-February year-end earnings season (and the traditional JP Morgan festival of M&A operations shaping the direction of the industry).
• This performance underscores the sector’s resilience but also hints at investor caution as the market awaits further clarity from upcoming earnings reports.
• Vaccine manufacturers with substantial US exposure are under increased scrutiny and regulation. Moderna's declining share price, hitting a 52-week low at $22.36, compared with $34.67 in July 2025 and £42.00 at the beginning of the year, reflects market doubts due to the US government resistance.
• To address this, the company secured a $1.5m loan and narrowed its product pipeline, choosing to focus on priority projects and strengthen finances while adopting a more cautious near-term growth strategy.
• We expect a wait and see approach from investors over the coming days and weeks until there’s visibility on how this will resolve. 

IG TV Commodity Corner (18/11/25):  https://www.youtube.com/live/_cghAS9Wnnk?si=YQpSPWrZ5_tzX0ha&t=4718 

ii TV - Macro trends, indicators, small caps.

• Precious metals, gold and copper : https://vimeo.com/fiveminutepitchtv/review/1125894076/5ccc1f796b
• FTSE 100 stocks, small-cap and lithium: https://vimeo.com/fiveminutepitchtv/review/1125892775/a44f96f5a1

Economics

US – US market saw the widest trading range since the “Liberation Day” sell off in April on Thursday

• The Nasdaq climbed as much as 2.5% in early trading before pulling back.
• Nvidia after beating earnings expectations climbed 5% during the day but closed 3% down.
• S&P and Nasdaq both closed 1.6% and 2.2% yesterday with futures trading flat this morning.
• VIX remains elevated in low 20s.
• 10y yields traded lower as investors rotated out of riskier assets with rates trading around 4.08% (-3bp).
• Both European and Asian equity benchmarks followed US equities lower.
• European defence stocks added to the declines on the US/Russia/Ukraine peace deal hopes.

China – PBoC kept rates unchanged for the sixth consecutive month in November despite latest economic data pointing to slowing growth and weaker demand for loans

• Expectations are Beijing may delay monetary stimulus but not giving it up completely at this point.
• 1y and 5y loan prime rates left unchanged at 3.0% and 3.5%, in line with expectations.

Eurozone – Business activity expanded in November albeit at a slightly weaker pace with services carrying the momentum

• Eurozone Composite PMI came in at 52.4, 2-month low.
• Services 53.1, up from 53.0 and 18-month high.
• Manufacturing 49.7, down on 50.0 and 5-month low.
• Most pickup in growth registered in ex Germany and France as the rest of the Eurozone marked the fastest growth since April 2023.
• New business orders growth maintained helped by domestic market while export orders dropped slightly again in November.
• Employment unchanged after rising in October.
• Inflation varied between input costs (increased at the fastest pace since March) and final prices (eased in November).

Germany

• Preliminary Manufacturing PMI (Nov/Oct/Est): 48.4 / 49.6 / 49.8
• Preliminary Services PMI (Nov/Oct/Est): 52.7 / 54.6 / 54.0
• Preliminary Composite PMI (Nov/Oct/Est): 52.1 / 53.9 / 53.5

France

• Preliminary Manufacturing PMI (Nov/Oct/Est): 47.8 / 48.8 / 49.0
• Preliminary Services PMI (Nov/Oct/Est): 50.8 / 48.0 / 48.5
• Preliminary Composite PMI (Nov/Oct/Est): 49.9 / 47.7 / 48.1

UK – Private businesses growth softened in November with services expansion slowing to a 7-month low

• Overall growth slowed to 50.5, down from 52.2 and 2-month low.
• “November’s flash PMI surveys brought disappointing news on the UK economy. Economic growth has stalled, job losses have accelerated, and business confidence has deteriorated,” PMI report read.
• “The PMI is broadly consistent with no change in GDP in November and a meagre 0.1% quarterly pace of growth so far in the fourth quarter.”
• Final goods inflation slowed to the weakest in nearly five years, a welcome bit of news for the BOE.
• However, input cost pressures continued to build up with businesses deciding to keep final prices under control amid weak demand.
• “Prices charged for goods fell at the sharpest rate since 2016, and service providers are likewise reporting much-reduced pricing power. While this is good news for inflation, it’s bad news for business profits, hiring and investment.”

Retail sales dropped 1.1%mom while a gauge of consumer sentiment also dropped last month ahead of Rachel Reeve’s budget next week.

• The government is expected to announce a series of tax increases to fund £20-30bn gap due toa a downgrade to expected growth.

ONS numbers showed the UK borrowings were higher than expected in seven months of FY26 putting further pressure on funding the Budget.

• THe Treasury borrowed £116.8bn during the period, nearly £10bn more than the last OBR forecast.

Ukraine/Russia – Kyiv has been given a 28-point peace plan developed by the US with consultation with Russia and Ukraine

• Draft terms include major concessions from Ukraine to end war without sufficient security guarantees.
• Other terms include withdrawing from the Donetsk region, limit nation’s armed forces to 600k from current more than 900k and to be explicitly included in the nation’s constitution that Ukraine not to seek NATO membership.
• US sanctions on Russia to be lifted in agreed-upon stages and Moscow to be invited back in the G8 group
• Ukrainian official said that the US expected Zelenskyy to sign the agreement “before Thanksgiving” (next Thursday) that would allow to finish the process by early December.
• Officials in Kyiv said that such aggressive timeline is unlikely.
• RUB is stronger this morning with oil and gas prices down on hopes for a Ukraine/Russia peace deal.
• We doubt if Putin will stick to any deal and see considerable risk to Ukraine from any pullback.

Currencies

US$1.1547/eur vs 1.1520/eur previous. Yen 156.79/$ vs 157.24/$. SAr 17.290/$ vs 17.227/$. $1.309/gbp vs $1.307/gbp. 0.645/aud vs 0.648/aud. CNY 7.110/$ vs 7.117/$.

Dollar Index 100.02 vs 100.26 previous.

Precious metals:         

Gold US$4,044/oz vs US$4,054/oz previous

Gold ETFs 97.3moz vs 97.4moz previous

Platinum US$1,511/oz vs US$1,546/oz previous

Palladium US$1,370/oz vs US$1,393/oz previous

Silver US$49.4/oz vs US$50.6/oz previous

Rhodium US$8,000/oz vs US$8,000/oz previous

Base metals:   

Copper US$10,659/t vs US$10,734/t previous

Aluminium US$2,780/t vs US$2,803/t previous

Nickel US$14,370/t vs US$14,465/t previous

Zinc US$2,973/t vs US$2,985/t previous

Lead US$1,989/t vs US$2,013/t previous

Tin US$36,850/t vs US$36,875/t previous

Energy:           

Oil US$62.5/bbl vs US$64.0/bbl previous

• International energy prices edged lower yesterday after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy agreed to work on a peace plan drafted by the US and Russia, which could lead to increased oil and gas supplies from the latter.
• US Henry Hub prices were stable as the EIA reported a 14bcf w/w draw to 3,946bcf (-14bcf expected), with storage inventories falling to 0.6% below last year’s level and 3.8% above the five-year average.

Natural Gas €30.3/MWh vs €31.1/MWh previous

Uranium Futures $76.0/lb vs $76.2/lb previous

Bulk:   

Iron Ore 62% Fe Spot (Singapore) US$103.9/t vs US$104.0/t - Port Hedland exports rose 8% to 49.5mt in October. Is China stocking up again?

Chinese steel rebar 25mm US$446.1/t vs US$445.3/t

HCC FOB Australia US$195.0/t vs US$195.0/t

Thermal coal swap Australia FOB US$114.5/t vs US$114.5/t

Other:  

Cobalt LME 3m US$48,570/t vs US$48,570/t

NdPr Rare Earth Oxide (China) US$78,065/t vs US$77,067/t

Lithium carbonate 99% (China) US$12,659/t vs US$12,786/t

China Spodumene Li2O 6%min CIF US$1,135/t vs US$1,105/t

Ferro-Manganese European Mn78% min US$1,015/t vs US$1,015/t

China Tungsten APT 88.5% FOB US$733/mtu vs US$733/mtu

China Tantalum Concentrate 30% CIF US$95/lb vs US$95/mtu

China Graphite Flake -194 FOB US$400/t vs US$400/t

Europe Vanadium Pentoxide 98% US$5.6/lb vs US$5.6/lb

Europe Ferro-Vanadium 80% US$24.0/kg vs US$24.0/kg

China Ilmenite Concentrate TiO2 US$271/t vs US$270/t

US Titanium Dioxide TiO2 >98% US$2,961/t vs US$2,961/t

China Rutile Concentrate 95% TiO2 US$1,104/t vs US$1,103/t

Spot CO2 Emissions EUA Price US$65.1/t vs US$65.1/t

Brazil Potash CFR Granular Spot US$355.0/t vs US$355.0/t

Germanium China 99.99% US$3,125.0/kg vs US$3,125.0/kg

China Gallium 99.99% US$400.0/kg vs US$400.0/kg

EV & battery news

Guangzhou auto show kicks off with 58% of vehicles showcased being electric

• The annual auto show in Guangzhou, China, started today with Chinese automakers showcasing alongside some big international brands.
• 1,085 vehicles will be on display throughout the week, with NEVs accounting for 629, or 58%, shown by vendors.
• The 2024 Guangzhou auto show featured 1,171 vehicles on display, with 512 NEVs, accounting for 43.7% of the total.
• Chinese demand for NEVs has grown rapidly over the last year with NEV sales in October totalling just over 1.7m, breaking the record monthly figures set in September of 1.6m.
• Sales figures could continue to increase towards the end of the year as automakers continue to discount vehicles to boost sales, despite calls from the government to end the price war.



Company news

Capital Limited (CAPD LN) 111p, Mkt Cap £218m – £31m placing to advance growth in Drilling, Mining and MSALABS divisions

• Drilling contractor Capital has raised £31m via a placing at 107p/share.
• Management notes increased demand for its services from ‘a surge in capital markets activity within the sector and increased exploration budgets across major customers.’
• The increased liquidity will enable ‘the Group to rapidly pursue and capitalise on growth opportunities as they arrive.’
• Capital will be split between:
  • Drilling and Mining: $25m
  • MSALABS: $10m
  • Working capital: $5m
• Management also highlights a tightening equipment market and increased utilisation levels across their divisions.

Jubilee Metals (JLP LN) 2.88p, Mkt Cap £92m – Quarterly production results as Molefe ramp up underway

• Jubilee provides an update on their Zambian operations to 1Q26.
• The Company produced 938t Cu over the quarter, primarily in concentrate produced by Roan.
• Roan concentrator targeting expansion to 40ktpm from 30ktpm.
• Molefe operations expected to ramp up to 4,500tpm by the end of 3Q26.
• Company guides to 4,500-5,100t Cu for FY2026.

Lundin Gold (LUN CN) C$104, Mkt Cap C$25bn – Drilling results from Fruta del Norte intercept 492g/t Au over 5.2m

• Lundin Gold reports assay results from near-mine exploration drilling at Fruta del Norte, Ecuador.
• Inferred resource conversion drilling returned highlights including:
  • FDN-C25-305: 492g/t Au over 5.2m from 41m (inc. 2,286g/t Au over 1.1m)
  • FDN-C25-260: 6.3m at 22.8g/t Au from 60m
  • FDN-C25-261: 10.5m at 22.8g/t Au from 80m
  • FDN-C25-259: 6.3m at 33.7g/t Au from 39m
• Company is advancing engineering studies to support initial mineral reserve estimate in 1Q26, with the reserves set to be included in the FDN long term mine plan.
• Exploration drilling at FDN South returned:
  • UGE-S-25-338: 7.7m at 23.2g/t Au from 51m
  • FDN-C25-325: 3.2m at 55.8g/t Au from 283m
• Exploration drilling believed to expand the limits of the deposit and ‘confirmed a larger mineralised system than previously understood.’
• Drilling at FDN East returned highlights of:
  • UGE-E-25-328: 10.8m at 14.1g/t Au from 332m
  • UGE-E-25-360: 15m at 9.3g/t Au from 226m

New Frontier Minerals* (NFM LN) 1.05p, Mkt Cap £18m – Trading Halt on ASX

• New Frontier Minerals reports its shares have gone into a trading halt on the ASX.
• Trading halts normally preclude an announcement on fund raising in Australia.
• The company has been testing a bulk sample of rare earth-bearing material from its Harts Range project in Australia.
• The Flash Joule Heating technology is new and is being trialled by Metallium inc. with trials showing substantial concentration of Dy, Tb and Nd with removal of Fe₂O₃, SiO₂ and Th.
• Management are looking to drill a series of targets at Harts Range where chip sampling shows potential for future REE resource definition.

*SP Angel acts as broker to New Frontier Minerals

LSE Group Starmine awards for 2025 / 2024 commodity forecasting:

No.1 in Precious Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 1. ranking for Precious Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls for Q1 2025

No.1 in Precious Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 1. ranking for Precious Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls 2024

No.2 in Base Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 2. ranking for Base Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls 2024

Analysts

John Meyer –John.Meyer@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0490

Simon Beardsmore – Simon.Beardsmore@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0484

Sergey Raevskiy –Sergey.Raevskiy@spangel.co.uk - 0203 470 0474

Arthur Parish – Arthur.Parish@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0476

Sales

Richard Parlons –Richard.Parlons@spangel.co.uk - 0203 470 0472

Abigail Wayne –Abigail.Wayne@spangel.co.uk - 0203 470 0534

Rob Rees –Rob.Rees@spangel.co.uk - 0203 470 0535

Grant Barker – Grant.Barker@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0471

George Krokos - george.krokos@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0486

Prince Frederick House

35-39 Maddox Street

London, W1S 2PP

*SP Angel are the No1 integrated nomad and broker by number of mining brokerage clients on AIM according to the AIM Advisers Ranking Guide (joint brokerships excluded)

+SP Angel employees may have previously held, or currently hold, shares in the companies mentioned in this note.

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