SP Angel . Morning View . Friday 14.11.25

MiFID II exempt information – see disclaimer below

We will be at the 121 Mining Investment Conference on Monday and Tuesday

• Our team will be meeting investors and companies throughout the two days.
• Normal service will be resumed on Wednesday.

80 Mile Plc* (80M LN) – Update on Disko and related party transactions

Amaroq (AMRQ LN) – 3Q25 update highlights Nalunaq on track for 6.0-7.0koz annual production

Galantas Gold* (GAL LN) – Acquisition of Chilean project

Metals Exploration (MTL LN) – Adjustment to 2025 production guidance

Oriole Resources (ORR LN) – £1.8m fundraising for Cameroon exploration

Copper – Physical stocks tightening as ongoing suspension at Grasberg  

• Copper consumer buying for Nov and Dec but some trade selling for January as manufacturers take a more cautious view on growth
• Physical copper continues to be drawn down from warehouses with the SHFE down -4.9% this week to 109,407t and LME stocks losing another 450t to 136,175t
• While there some are hidden stocks in lower-cost locations visible stocks of just 245,582t out of expected global demand of >28mt this year feels insufficient.
• Physical stocks remain in the US from buying ahead of Trump’s review of the copper market with the Comex / LME arb still running + $700/t
• We also suspect China may be moving some SRB stock into the visible spectrum.
• Benchmark forecast a copper deficit of 400,000t for 2025. The ICSG, a normally conservative organisation, also forecast a deficit of 150,000t for 2026.
• If these forecasts are even half true then any supply-side disruption could easily push prices into overdrive.
• Most if not all forecasts assume a return of copper concentrate from Grasberg where a mud rush killed five and suspended mining.
• Technical experts see significant issues in the restart of mining at Grasberg and seismic incidents in deepening copper mines are an increasing threat.
• Add to this, predictions for more severe weather events and their disruption to mine supply and you have increasing potential for physical shortages next year.
• We remain increasingly concerned over the ability of copper smelters in the West to continue to operate under increasingly negative Treatment and Refining charges.

Gold – Chinese gold buying may still be lifting the market

• The FT reports a ‘Growing amount of unreported transactions present challenge for bullion market traders’ .
• Poor transparency in gold trading in China
• UK gold exports to China appear to correlate with periods of official buying.
• Chinese bank gold holdings have risen as a percentage of total reserve assets to 25% from close to 10% over the past five yearss.
• Estimated and unreported holdings of gold within central banks is estimated to have risen sharply in recent years with Poland, Turkey, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and China seen as the top five buyers this year.

Lithium miners in Zimbabwe ask the government to defer taxes on concentrates until the end of 2026, Bloomberg writes..

• Zimbabwe levies VAT of 5% on lithium concentrates aiming to incentivise miners to process locally.
• Amid depressed lithium prices, miners asked authorities for a tax moratorium to give them time to raise for processing facilities.
• Bikita and Arcadia Lithium are reported to be working on building facilities that will produce higher value lithium sulphate.

Rio Tinto to mothball its ~$3bn Jadar Lithium Project in Serbia amid a streamlining and cost cutting drive, according to Bloomberg.

• The project was discovered in 2004 but development works have been delayed by permitting challenges.
• The project hosts 144mt at 1.8% Li2O for over 6mt LCE.
• Rio was planned as an underground operation producing ~58kt lithium carbonate, 160kt boric acid and 255kt sodium sulphate.
• “Given the lack of progress in permitting, we are not in a position to sustain the same level of spend and resource allocation,” according to an internal memo seen by Bloomberg.
• The decision to suspend development comes five months after the Company raised its cost estimates from previous $2.4bn.
• Rio to focus on its South American lithium operations/projects following Rincon acquisition completed earlier this year.

Bitcoin – prices fall to under $100,000 overnight following a Tech stock selling.

• The move is reported to have knocked some $450bn of the value of the Bitcoin market with major investors backing off from the market.

IG TV Commodity Corner: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u7en9LCuurE 

ii TV - Macro trends, indicators, small caps.

• Precious metals, gold and copper : https://vimeo.com/fiveminutepitchtv/review/1125894076/5ccc1f796b
• FTSE 100 stocks, small-cap and lithium: https://vimeo.com/fiveminutepitchtv/review/1125892775/a44f96f5a1

Economics

US – Risk sentiment is off with tech stocks particularly hard hit as Fed officials questioned a rate cut in December.

• With optimism around US government shutdown ending largely priced in, traders are focusing on a series of economic data delayed by the shutdown.
• Odds of a rate cut next month dropped below 50%, down from over 70% a week ago.
• St Louis President warned the Fed should move cautiously on rats with inflation running above target.
• Cleveland Head said policy should remain “somewhat restrictive”.
• Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said he did not support the last cut and is undecided about December.
• S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 closed 1.7% and 2.3% on Thursday with futures trading lower this morning (-0.3% and -0.6%).
• Markets only pricing in a 50% chance of a Dec Fed cut, down from near certainty last month.

UK – Rates jumped as Chancellor Reeves is reported to have dropped plans to increase income tax at the coming budget.

• Sterling and UK gilt markets sold off with the pound falling 0.5%, on course for its third weekly decline
• 10y gilts yield was up 0.1pp at 4.54 in early trading.
• The chancellor is now exploring alternative ways to fill in the fiscal gap estimated at up to £30bn.

Mali – Foreign Minister rejected claims that jihadists could soon capture the capital.

• The minister sees claims of jihadist groups which have been attacking fuel convoys, as unable to take over the nation.
• Bamako, is currently hosting a defence exhibition involving a number of Turkish defence contractors.
• The minister also sees the African Union’s call for an international response as indicating “a poor understanding of conditions on the ground.” according to ANewZ.
• The minister also stressed the country remains open and welcoming to foreigners.

Ivory Coast boosts border defence due to ‘unusual flow’ of Malian refugees

• Ivorian authorities said the influx of Malian refugees was caused by ‘attacks against civilians’ from armed groups according to Aljazeera.
• Ivory Coast’s National Security Council say, “influx appears to be due to attacks against civilians by armed terrorist groups in several areas of southern Mali”.
• While France 24 sees Bamako as under threat from al-Queda-linked insurgents, running a few fuel blockades is a far cry from occupying and holding an entire nation and we expect the ruling military junta to gather its forces and combat the insurgents and restore law and order.

Kurds look to create a federation with Israel

• A proposal at the ‘minorities conference’ indicates, leaders of the Kurdish community is looking for a federation with Israel.
• They suggest, they have tried an Islamic union which has not worked.

Currencies

US$1.1632/eur vs 1.1610/eur previous. Yen 154.63/$ vs 154.66/$. SAr 17.112/$ vs 17.017/$. $1.313/gbp vs $1.313/gbp. 0.653/aud vs 0.658/aud. CNY 7.100/$ vs 7.096/$.

Dollar Index 99.30 vs 99.31 previous.

Precious metals:

Gold US$4,182/oz vs US$4,234/oz previous

   Gold ETFs 97.5moz vs 97.3moz previous

Platinum US$1,587/oz vs US$1,628/oz previous

Palladium US$1,433/oz vs US$1,493/oz previous

Silver US$53.0/oz vs US$54.3/oz previous

Rhodium US$8,100/oz vs US$8,125/oz previous

Base metals:   

Copper US$10,853/t vs US$10,965/t previous

Aluminium US$2,853/t vs US$2,906/t previous

Nickel US$14,810/t vs US$15,070/t previous

Zinc US$3,007/t vs US$3,087/t previous

Lead US$2,070/t vs US$2,089/t previous

Tin US$36,860/t vs US$37,665/t previous

Energy:           

Oil US$63.8/bbl vs US$62.6/bbl previous

• Crude oil prices edged higher after the IEA’s November OMR estimated that world oil demand growth rebounded to 920kb/d in 3Q25, mainly due to stronger deliveries in China. The IEA global oil supply growth forecast is up 0.1mb/d to 3.1mb/d in 2025 and 2.5mb/d in 2026, offset by a 0.1mb/d increase to 0.8mb/d global oil demand growth in each year.
• Media reports APA as a potential partner for Repsol’s 0.55mboe/d upstream unit, which is considering options including a reverse merger with a US-listed group, an IPO of the business or a partial sale of its 75% stake in the business.

Natural Gas €30.7/MWh vs €30.9/MWh previous

Uranium Futures $77.5/lb vs $77.9/lb previous

Bulk:   

Iron Ore 62% Fe Spot (Singapore) US$102.6/t vs US$102.7/t

Chinese steel rebar 25mm US$444.4/t vs US$444.4/t

HCC FOB Australia US$196.0/t vs US$196.0/t

Thermal coal swap Australia FOB US$112.0/t vs US$111.9/t

Other:  

Cobalt LME 3m US$48,570/t vs US$48,570/t

NdPr Rare Earth Oxide (China) US$76,408/t vs US$77,794/t

Lithium carbonate 99% (China) US$11,972/t vs US$11,979/t

China Spodumene Li2O 6%min CIF US$990/t vs US$990/t

Ferro-Manganese European Mn78% min US$1,015/t vs US$1,015/t

China Tungsten APT 88.5% FOB US$718/mtu vs US$718/mtu

China Tantalum Concentrate 30% CIF US$94/lb vs US$94/mtu

China Graphite Flake -194 FOB US$400/t vs US$400/t

Europe Vanadium Pentoxide 98% US$5.6/lb vs US$5.6/lb

Europe Ferro-Vanadium 80% US$23.8/kg vs US$23.8/kg

China Ilmenite Concentrate TiO2 US$271/t vs US$271/t

US Titanium Dioxide TiO2 >98% US$2,961/t vs US$2,961/t

China Rutile Concentrate 95% TiO2 US$1,106/t vs US$1,106/t

Spot CO2 Emissions EUA Price US$65.1/t vs US$65.1/t

Brazil Potash CFR Granular Spot US$355.0/t vs US$355.0/t

Germanium China 99.99% US$3,125.0/kg vs US$3,125.0/kg

China Gallium 99.99% US$400.0/kg vs US$400.0/kg

EV & battery news

Dongfeng to mass-produce solid-state batteries with 1,000km range by September 2026

• Dongfeng Motor plans to start mass production of 350Wh/kg "solid-state" batteries in September 2026, enabling 1,000km driving range.
• The Chinese automaker has a 0.2GWh pilot line that is already operational.
• Although the company is calling the battery solid-state, a photo seen by local reporters indicates the battery may be semi-solid-state.
• The 350Wh/kg battery has passed thermal safety tests and maintains 72% energy retention at -30°C, outperforming conventional liquid electrolyte batteries.
• Dongfeng will also develop 400Wh/kg and 500Wh/kg solid-state versions, with pilot production by December 2027.
• The company has also revealed it is beginning research on solid-state sulfide-based batteries targeting 500Wh/kg energy density.
• Despite significant developments from major battery makers in China, large-scale commercial adoption of solid-state batteries is still expected post-2030.

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Company news

80 Mile Plc* (80M LN) - 0.59p, Mkt cap £27m – Update on Disko and related party transactions

(80 Mile currently owns 100 percent of Nikkeli Greenland A/S, the holder of the Disko licenses)

• 80 Mile plc has updated the market on details in relation to Disco, Hydrogen Valley and Jameson licenses in an RNS today.
• Disko project, USFM will earn 51% for expenditure of US$30m is still subject to definitive agreement and completion of fundraising by USFM.
• An application for drilling in the 2026 field season has been lodged with management looking for contractors for the work program.
• USFM is a US based SPV ‘Special Purpose Vehicle’ incorporated for the purposes of joint venturing Disko.
• 80M will remain 100% owner of both the Jameson and Disko projects till the agreed expenditures have been met.
• Robert Price, a respected US-based oil industry expert has been central to the structuring and arrangement of potential funding for all three transactions.
• Price was formerly involved in the tender process undertaken by the Greenland Government for the Jameson licenses in competition with 80 Mile's subsidiary, White Flame Energy. White Flame Energy won the tender process.
• The company iterates that that people connected with 80 Mile may subscribe for shares in Pelican, March or USFM and this may ultimately serve to fund activities run by 80 Mile plc.
• For further details please see https://www.80mile.com/regulatory-news

Conclusion: We believe there is significant interest in the US for exploration for critical materials in Greenland and we view 80 Mile’s connections in the US as significant.

*SP Angel acts as nomad and broker to 80 Mile Plc (formerly Bluejay Mining). The analyst has formerly visited license in Greenland with management.

Amaroq (AMRQ LN) 93p, Mkt Cap £415m – 3Q25 update highlights Nalunaq on track for 6.0-7.0koz annual production

• The Company reports operational and earnings update for its Nalunaq Gold Mine, Greenland.
• 3Q25 production 3.5koz taking 9M25 total to 4.3koz.
• Production reached ~5.0koz by October, in line with revised guidance.
• FY25 production is now targeted for 6.0-7.0koz.
• Phase 1 works completed.
• 300tpd name plant throughput remains on track for YE25.
• Phase 2 works ongoing with commissioning of the flotation circuit expected 1H26.
• The team completed the transition to fully owner operated mining on 1 October, enabling better efficiency and cost control.
• 9M25 financial results
  • Gold sales 3.4koz at US$3,490/oz average price
  • Revenues C$16m
  • Gross Profit C$5m
  • Exploration Costs -C$6m
  • G&A -C$14m
  • Net Loss -C$15m
  • C$45m available liquidity with C$55m cash and $9m undrawn RCF less C$19m trade payables.

Galantas Gold* (GAL LN) 5.25p, Mkt Cap £7m – Acquisition of Chilean project

• Galantas Gold has announced plans to acquire RDL Mining for a total of ~132m Galantas Gold shares.
• The 132m new Galantas Gold shares being issued to the three shareholders of RDL Mining, who also each receive a “0.66% net smelter returns ("NSR") royalty payable by Galantas in respect of the Indiana Project, for an aggregate NSR royalty of approximately 2%”, represent 49.99% of the enlarged Galantas Gold.
• RDL Mining is progressing the Indiana gold/copper project in Chile which hosts “an operating mine and historical … [2013] … high‐grade gold-copper resources” of ~3.1mt at an average grade of 2.8g/t gold, 1.6% copper and 0.01% molybdenum.
• “The historical resource includes only five veins drilled to a vertical depth of 300 metres. Over 20 veins, as well as outcropping breccia, remain untested over the 25 km of identified major and minor veins. Two underground declines provide access for exploration and development and enable near-term mining potential”.
• Hinting at the potential of the project, today’s announcement says that “Eight major ~1 metre wide veins ranging up to 1.5 kilometres in length and down to 400 metres depth have been delineated”.
• The acquisition of RDL Mining opens the way for the creation of “a combined company that intends to lead the advancement of the … project … [which is] … located 40 kilometres (km) from Copiapó at 1470 metres above sea level, in one of the world's most prolific mining districts”.
• Today’s announcement says that the “Indiana Project is an operating gold and copper mine, which is ready for immediate expansion … [and where work by previous operators] … includes 13,000 metres of diamond drilling in 40 holes, 2,000 chip and trench samples, and detailed geology and structural modelling”.
• CEO, Mario Stifano, said that the transaction with RDL Mining “positions Galantas to fast‑track the project into production, while simultaneously unlocking significant exploration upside by drilling the numerous outcropping and untested veins on the property”.
• He welcomed the addition of the present owners of RDL Mining to the Board describing them as “seasoned mining veterans … [who will strengthen] … our ability to execute on this vision and deliver meaningful growth”.

Conclusion: The acquisition of a Chilean gold/copper project brings an existing operation, exploration potential and experienced management with mine building and exploration expertise.

*SP Angel acts as Broker to Galantas Gold

Metals Exploration (MTL LN) 12.05p, Mkt Cap £366m – Adjustment to 2025 production guidance

• Following the resumption, in September, of normal production at the Runruno mine in the Philippines after the contamination of its bio-oxidation (BIOX) processing circuit from illegal mining activity close to the operations, and the disruption caused by Super-typhoon Uwan, Metals Exploration has revised its 2025 production guidance.
• The company is now indicating gold production in the range 65-70,000oz updating the previous range of 70-75,000oz.
• Describing the impact of the typhoon, Metals Exploration confirms that “there were no recorded injuries to staff or contractors … [and] … he damage to the mine, process plant and other site infrastructure is not material, and clean-up works are well advanced”.
• Although “grid power to the site was lost as numerous electrical poles were downed … [the company expects] … that mains power to the site will be re-established within the next few days, resulting in a pause to processing operations of approximately seven days”.
• Metals Exploration also confirms that “Despite the large run-off of rainwater into the Residual Storage Impoundment ("RSI"), the RSI maintained integrity and over four metres of freeboard remained at the peak of the rain inflow into the RSI dam”.
• CEO, Darren Bowden, said that “our thoughts are with all of those across the country who have lost loved ones and been affected not only by Uwan but the other serious typhoons that have impacted the Philippines this typhoon season”.
• He said that the company was disappointed “to revise our annual production guidance downwards … [and said that] …our focus for the rest of the year will be on maximising value generation from our mining and processing operations at Runruno, while continuing to provide meaningful support to the local community”.

Conclusion: Production guidance for 2025 has been revised down by around 5,000oz (6%) following the temporary suspension of production to resolve cyanide contamination from local illegal mining and the impact of typhoon damage.

Oriole Resources (ORR LN) 0.24p, Mkt Cap £9.6m – £1.8m fundraising for Cameroon exploration

• Oriole Resources confirms that it has conditionally raised £1.8m via the placing of an 750m new shares at 0.24p/share.
• Proceeds of the placing will be deployed to progress exploration of the company’s portfolio in Cameroon  and “more specifically, provide capital for a step out drilling programme at the MB01-S deposit … to test the southern extension of the recently announced Mineral Resource Estimate” which totalled 24.8mt at 1.09g/t Au for 870koz in a mixture of fresh and oxide mineralisation.
• They will also be used for infill soil sampling at the Ndom, Pokor and Tenoukou licences “ to follow up the successful regional stream sediment and soil sampling programmes in 2021/22” and for technical studies to back up the exploitation licence application at Bibemi.
• CEO, Martin Rosser, said that the additional financial support puts Oriole Resources “in excellent financial health”.
• We estimate that the additional shares represent ~16% of the enlarged company.

LSE Group Starmine awards for 2025 / 2024 commodity forecasting:

No.1 in Precious Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 1. ranking for Precious Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls for Q1 2025

No.1 in Precious Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 1. ranking for Precious Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls 2024

No.2 in Base Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 2. ranking for Base Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls 2024

Analysts

John Meyer –John.Meyer@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0490

Simon Beardsmore – Simon.Beardsmore@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0484

Sergey Raevskiy –Sergey.Raevskiy@spangel.co.uk - 0203 470 0474

Arthur Parish – Arthur.Parish@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0476

Sales

Richard Parlons –Richard.Parlons@spangel.co.uk - 0203 470 0472

Abigail Wayne –Abigail.Wayne@spangel.co.uk - 0203 470 0534

Rob Rees –Rob.Rees@spangel.co.uk - 0203 470 0535

Grant Barker – Grant.Barker@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0471

George Krokos - george.krokos@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0486

Prince Frederick House

35-39 Maddox Street

London, W1S 2PP

*SP Angel are the No1 integrated nomad and broker by number of mining brokerage clients on AIM according to the AIM Advisers Ranking Guide (joint brokerships excluded)

+SP Angel employees may have previously held, or currently hold, shares in the companies mentioned in this note.

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