Prospex Energy (PXEN ) has received a significant boost from new broker research by Hannam & Partners, which values the company's shares at 16p on a risked NAV basis - more than four times the current share price - following a major reassessment of its newly acquired Polish assets.
The broker's updated valuation incorporates Prospex's 100%-owned Mniszów oil discovery in southern Poland, which it believes could deliver an unrisked net present value (NPV) of about US$70 million. Hannam & Partners has increased its overall risked NAV by 18% to 16.1p per share after including the project.
The broker said Prospex has substantially upgraded the Mniszów discovery after reinterpreting historic well data, increasing estimated oil in place to about 13 million barrels from around two million barrels previously. Recoverable reserves are now estimated at about 3.7 million barrels, with first production targeted during 2027.
Development is expected to follow a phased, low-cost model requiring around 15 wells at an estimated cost of about €2 million per well. With existing local infrastructure allowing crude to be transported by road, the project requires minimal additional infrastructure spending, resulting in combined capital and operating costs of less than US$15 per barrel.
Hannam & Partners forecasts production could peak at around 1,350 barrels per day during 2029, generating free cash flow of about €20 million that year. The broker also highlights Prospex's ability to fund development through farm-out agreements at the asset level rather than issuing new equity, helping preserve shareholder value.
Beyond Poland, the research notes Prospex's broader strategy of building a diversified European energy portfolio capable of generating long-term cash flow. The company continues to hold interests in producing and development-stage gas assets in Spain and Italy, while its newly awarded Polish licences also contain significant gas exploration potential alongside the Mniszów oil project.
Hannam & Partners estimates Prospex's total unrisked asset portfolio could ultimately be worth about €250 million, while management has identified a longer-term "full potential" value of around €340 million across its assets under favourable development assumptions.
View from Vox
Hannam & Partners' updated research shines a spotlight on a part of the Prospex story that has received little market attention so far. While the company's producing gas assets continue to provide value, the addition of a potentially low-cost, high-margin oil development in Poland materially strengthens the investment case. With multiple catalysts ahead, including seismic work and progress towards first oil, investors now have clearer visibility on how Prospex could unlock significant value over the coming years.