BBC: The UK says it will establish a national AI Biosecurity Lab (AIBL) to help strengthen its defences against emerging biological threats. As part of Wednesday's Budget, the government will commit £100m to establishing the new “world-first” institute, with the support of leading AI firms. The Chancellor will also pledge millions of pounds in spending across a range of initiatives aimed at shoring up the UK's ability to respond to evolving cyber, biological and AI-enabled threats.
Comment: The best way to support AI is for the government to leave well alone and create the best environment for business. Ratcheting up taxes to post-war highs does not create that environment. Indeed, the main reason for these initiatives is to distract from the fact that the government’s only interest in business is as a source of revenue to pay for non-working people to vote Labour. Oh, and by the way, the greatest indication that any bubble is about to burst is when a government invests in it, a.k.a it is the kiss of death.
Financial Times: Chancellor John Healey is set to provide c. £20.1bn of extra support to the state's business lender and infrastructure bank in next week's Budget, as he attempts to boost investment by exploiting flexibility in the government’s fiscal rules. The National Wealth Fund and British Business Bank will receive the extra capital funding over five years, the Treasury said, predicting that it would create and support 100,000 jobs in AI, defence and green energy by 2035.
Comment: Presumably, a decent chunk of the £20bn will come from the extra tax on family businesses being flagged for the Budget. It is only to be expected that the left-leaning FT will go along with the government’s addiction to writing cheques and the magic money tree, rather than focusing on where the money is coming from. It is also the case that simply giving targeted tax breaks for investment in the likes of AI, defence and green energy would be a more effective strategy. This is especially true given that we know the National Wealth Fund and British Business Bank are quangos staffed by people who are not going to be Brain of Britain when it comes to investment, as they do not need to be.
The Telegraph: Consumer confidence has plunged at an “alarming” pace ahead of John Healey’s maiden Budget, with a drop as steep as the fall after the Brexit vote, new figures show. A closely watched measure of how confident households feel about their finances and the economy fell 11 points to minus 24 in October from the previous month. The figures, released on Friday by GfK, suggest families feel much less secure, as the Chancellor is expected to announce tax rises in next week’s autumn Budget.
Comment: Consumer confidence is one of the more fickle and useless indicators around: it can rise when England does well in the World Cup and fall when the price of a pint goes up. Nevertheless, the prospect of interest rates going up and a £30bn fiscal hole to fill in the Budget, set against £1 off one’s bus fare, £45 off electricity bills and no family seating charges on planes, means that these positive measures are just breadcrumbs of comfort.
The Times / Sunday Times: Andy Haldane: PM risks Truss-style crisis if he dodges tough choices. Former adviser tells Andy Burnham to “take the knife” to public spending and reduce taxes as Britain faces a “precarious” fiscal situation.
Comment: Well, it should have been the case that the £3tn national debt, soaring gilt yields and profligate spending had already caused the bond markets to oust Andy Burnham, as they did Liz Truss. Or perhaps it will happen after the Budget next week. However, the bond markets have their own political bias towards centre-left governments, so Burnham is absolutely fine. And that is even after saying that social security is even more important than national security, which should have been enough to bring down the government on its own.
The Guardian: A day after JD Vance suggested Donald Trump would endorse him if he ran for president, the Vice-President shifted awkwardly in the Oval Office as his boss was asked about the remark. “He’s a very talented person, and he’s a very good person,” Trump said of the man standing behind him, with a forced smile this week. “But we’ve literally—I don’t think we’ve ever talked about it,” the President claimed, leaving the assertion unconfirmed.
Comment: If ever there were a perfect modern example of being damned with faint praise, the President’s description of his Vice-President was first-class. Perhaps Trump is just not ready to acknowledge that he is a lame duck. Perhaps he was having an off day in the aftermath of turning 80, or perhaps he continues to be surprisingly overconcerned about the forthcoming midterms. Nevertheless, it would appear that JD Vance may have to wait a little longer for a public endorsement.
BBC: US President Donald Trump has praised Prime Minister Andy Burnham for the UK government's decision to approve production from the North Sea's Jackdaw gas field. He said he had spoken with Burnham, telling reporters on Friday that the decision would "make the UK a very rich country". Trump said: "The other prime minister, the previous man, Starmer. He's a very nice man, but he never got it done, and this one is getting it."
Comment: Ordinarily, the fans of fossil fuels including President Trump would and should be singing victory. However, we still have a 78% tax on proceeds from the North Sea, so really Jackdaw could just be seen as a way of generating more tax for the exchequer, rather than a way of heating our homes more cheaply. In addition, the demand from Kemi Badenoch for the government to lift the ban on new licenses looks as though it will be based on political expediency and dogma, rather than a serious strategy for energy security.
CityAM: Supermarkets have been caught off guard by the government’s “shambolic” campaign urging Britons to stock up on food and water. Retailers were not told the details of the government’s “Be Ready” campaign until days before it was announced and expected it to be a more “low-key” affair, the people said. On Thursday, Defence Secretary Wes Streeting urged Britons to prepare three days’ worth of non-perishable food and bottled water, an FM radio and blankets in case of hybrid attacks by “hostile state actors or terrorists”.
Comment: One of the few roles of government that everyone across the political spectrum can agree on is ensuring the safety and welfare of its citizens. But the message in the wake of this week’s “Be Ready” campaign is that we are on our own. That said, we have rather known that since the pandemic, when, face masks on, we were breathing in Covid in supermarket queues rather than having our supplies delivered by, say, the army. Under any future repeat of such a doomsday scenario, it may be best to do without listening to the news on a wind-up radio.
BBC: France is on high alert ahead of a new day of nationwide protests on Saturday, a week after the country saw some of its worst unrest in decades. Sweeping restrictions have been imposed on demonstrations across France, but hundreds of thousands of protesters are still expected to gather in Paris and elsewhere for a second round of protests organised by students, trade unions and wider anti-government groups.
Comment: With a yellow warning in place for rain and flooding, one would imagine that severe weather will dampen the ardour of even the radical revolutionaries protesting against government policies. Indeed, the Parisian weather looks as though it will be a more powerful weapon against protest than a curfew. Of course, the historical evidence is that street-based protest rarely hits the spot until those involved actually get to pull the levers of power themselves.
Sky News: Was the PM's Gogglebox double act inappropriate amid the war alert? Burnham defends a “bit of humour”. Andy Burnham and his best mate, Steve Rotheram, sat on a sofa together watching TV like two ordinary blokes—except one was the Prime Minister and the other a mayor.
Comment: It was interesting that, over the past week, two pillars of the UK establishment appeared on downmarket / popular TV programmes. One can only speculate about the coincidence of the future unelected monarch and the current unelected Prime Minister choosing this moment to get all chatty with the general public. Certainly, this is not a great time for either politics or the monarchy. But while one presumes that, even with Harry and Meghan an ongoing car crash, the monarchy will survive, it is clear that Andy Burnham, with his breadcrumb wins against the cost of living, feels that he should enjoy himself in the post for however long it lasts.
Reuters: Apple's (AAPL) first folding phone, the iPhone Duo, hit stores around the world on Friday with a price tag of about $2,000 and less of the fanfare that accompanied previous iPhone launches. From Singapore and Shanghai to London and San Francisco, demand was strong, but with sales rationed, there were fewer of the round-the-block queues and overnight camp-outs that once marked new iPhone days.
Comment: Those who are into FX will, of course, know that $2,000 does not equal £2,000, but as far as the iPhone Duo is concerned, when it eventually hits the UK, it will. The other point that may be relevant is that the type of person who can afford a £2,000 phone is not the type of person accustomed to camping out or even queuing.
Sky News: Storm Boelo latest: Met Office issues fresh weather warnings as Storm Boelo approaches the UK. After Storm Austen battered parts of the south-west yesterday, Storm Boelo is due to make landfall today. It is forecast to bring rain and winds of up to 80mph, with amber and yellow warnings in place later.
Comment: Now that the last traces of overheated temperatures have faded, it is the turn of outsized storms and hurricanes to do the rounds. Given the magnitude of what is to come, it may actually be worth those in the more isolated areas of the country stocking up on baked beans and keeping their phone chargers to hand.
BBC: With the clocks going back one hour on Sunday, people are discussing whether the British Isles should change time zones to allow for lighter evenings. A former politician who spearheaded a referendum for Jersey to adopt Central European Time (CET) has said that he stands by his argument that it would boost “quality of life”.
Comment: While the weather will always be number one on the Great British conversational agenda, twice a year there is the perennial and as-yet-unsolved dilemma of GMT versus BST. Alas, this is likely never to be resolved. Getting light at 9am and dark at 5pm in London may just about be acceptable if the clocks stay on BST. However, for anywhere north of the Midlands, and especially Scotland, life would be even more miserable in winter than it already is. That said, an achievable solution could be for the Scots to stay on GMT year-round and have their own “independent” time zone. However, while the likes of the SNP are big on independence, perhaps they fear that this may be the thin end of the wedge when it comes to being bankrolled by the English—the main reason they remain in the Union.