SP Angel . Morning View . Wednesday 14.01.26

MiFID II exempt information – see disclaimer below

LSEG StarMine Award for Most Accurate Forecasting in Reuters Polls: - SP Angel ranked No1 for Precious Metals in the 2025

Anglo Asian Mining* (AAZ LN) - BUY – President Aliyev visit to Demirli Ore Processing Complex

Arras Minerals (ARK CN) – Higher-grade mineralisation intercepted at Berezski North

Atalaya Mining (ATYM LN) – Record plant throughput and rising grades deliver uprated 2025 production guidance

Caledonia Mining (CMCL LN) – Blanket mine delivers upgraded 2025 production guidance

Ferrexpo (FXPO LN) – Q4 production hit on increased drone and missile strikes

Linq Minerals (LNQ AU) – Further encouraging drilling results from Dam project

Sun Peak Minerals (PEAK CN) – Saudi exploration programme gets underway as drill target delineation prioritised

Taseko (TKO LN) – Florence commissioning advances as wellfield results beat expectations

Gold ($4,634/oz) tests new highs as precious metals extend gains on Fed independence concerns

• Gold prices have pressed higher, now rallying c.3% since Powell announced Federal prosecutors had begun investigating him.
• Gold has now rallied 7.7% over the past month, up 73% over the past 12 months.
• We suspect the recent acceleration in the gold rally may be a combination of sustained concerns over Trump’s attitude towards US institutions and heightened geopolitical tensions between the US and China.
• Trump’s drastic action taken in Venezuela has been seen by some as a direct counter to increased Chinese presence in the country.
• China had been eyeing Venezuela’s oil reserves as a source of future supply, given limited domestic reserves.
• China has been consistently reducing their exposure to US dollars and treasuries, with gold the primary beneficiary.
• Many BRICs countries have boosted their gold reserves following the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which saw the US and European countries freeze Russian government assets.
• As a result, countries are looking to reduce their exposure to US treasuries, buying gold as an alternative.
• The PBoC added to their gold reserves for the 13th straight month in November, and Beijing is encouraging ‘friendly’ to trade their gold in China vs the traditional LBMA hub.
• Investors have also looked to gold as a haven asset amid increased concerns over US fiscal policy and ever expanding deficits.
• Trump’s consistent attacks on J Powell and the Fed in his bid to lower rates has reduced investor confidence in US government debt, pushing long-dated yields to 2007 highs.
• We suspect China will continue to bolster their gold reserves, alongside other BRICs countries, as Trump gets increasingly erratic and geopolitical tensions continue.

Copper (US$13,152/t) – hits new high at $13,408/t

• LME stock levels have almost halved over the past year to 141,625t and 90,625t On Warrant
• A year ago the LME reported 255,825t with 231,175t on warrant on 27/01/25. Cancelled warrants are not available but still in LME warehouses.
• Copper continues to flow into the US in anticipation of fresh US tariffs on copper imports.
• If the premium on copper rises in China metal may start to ship back to China or more likely, may simply not ship from East to West.

Silver ($90.3/oz) scales new highs as precious metals extend gains

• Silver prices have jumped 16% over the past week, up 4.7% this morning.
• The metal is leading the wider precious metals complex, with platinum scaling $2,400/oz whilst palladium has bounced off recent highs.
• The dollar index remains steady at 99, suggesting the rally is being driven by more speculative capital.
• Silver ETF holdings have climbed to 856moz, but remain below previous highs in 2020 and 2022.
• US CPI came in softer than expected, although US Treasury yields remain elevated, with markets reducing rate cut expectations.

IG TV - Copper, Silver and the New Commodities Cycle | Commodity Markets Weekly:  https://youtu.be/mdU5EEjc3Z8?si=BjTihCKKoeKlYHYn

Currencies

US$1.1643/eur vs 1.1660/eur previous. Yen 159.14/$ vs 158.98/$. SAr 16.373/$ vs 16.427/$. $1.344/gbp vs $1.347/gbp. 0.669/aud vs         0.670/aud. CNY 6.974/$ vs 6.977/$.

Dollar Index 99.15 vs 99.00 previous.

Precious metals:         

Gold US$4,623/oz vs US$4,596/oz previous

   Gold ETFs 99.4moz vs 99.2moz previous

Platinum US$2,379/oz vs US$2,336/oz previous

Palladium US$1,839/oz vs US$1,832/oz previous

Silver US$89.4/oz vs US$86.0/oz previous

   Silver ETFs 855.7moz vs 855.3moz previous

Rhodium US$9,950/oz vs US$9,900/oz previous

Base metals:   

Copper US$13,152/t vs US$13,192/t previous

Aluminium US$3,186/t vs US$3,170/t previous

Nickel US$17,800/t vs US$17,790/t previous

Zinc US$3,217/t vs US$3,224/t previous

Lead US$2,058/t vs US$2,060/t previous

Tin US$51,425/t vs US$48,195/t previous

Energy:

Oil US$64.9/bbl vs US$64.2/bbl previous

·        Crude oil prices moved back above $65/bbl in early trading following news that Ukrainian attacks near the Caspian Pipeline had disrupted Kazakhstan’s exports, as the API estimated a 5.3mb w/w oil inventory build to US stocks.

·        European energy prices edged higher on forecasts for colder temperatures in late January as France's nuclear generation fell 3% w/w to 84% of the country’s 61.4GW maximum capacity.

·        The EIA’s January STEO expects global production of liquid fuels will increase by 1.4mb/d in 2026 and 0.5mb/d in 2027, with global demand growth forecast to rise from 1.1mb/d this year to 1.3mb/d next year, causing global oil inventory builds averaging 2.8mb/d in 2026, which is similar to 2025’s increase, before averaging 2.1mb/d in 2027.

·        BP announced planned write-downs in the range of $4-5bn primarily attributable to the gas and low carbon energy transition businesses, as the Company continues to scale back its clean energy projects.

Natural Gas €30.6/MWh vs €31.5/MWh previous

Uranium Futures $83.2/lb vs $83.0/lb previous

Bulk:   

Iron Ore 62% Fe Spot (Singapore) US$108.0/t vs US$108.3/t

Chinese steel rebar 25mm US$464.9/t vs US$464.6/t

HCC FOB Australia US$228.3/t vs US$226.3/t

Thermal coal swap Australia FOB US$109.5/t vs US$107.3/t

Other:  

Cobalt LME 3m US$56,290/t vs US$56,290/t

NdPr Rare Earth Oxide (China) US$92,271/t vs US$91,230/t

Lithium carbonate 99% (China) US$22,240/t vs US$21,227/t

China Spodumene Li2O 6%min CIF US$1,990/t vs US$1,890/t

Ferro-Manganese European Mn78% min US$1,035/t vs US$1,035/t

China Tungsten APT 88.5% FOB US$1,118/mtu vs US$1,098/mtu

China Tantalum Concentrate 30% CIF US$105/lb vs US$105/mtu

China Graphite Flake -194 FOB US$410/t vs US$410/t

Europe Vanadium Pentoxide 98% US$5.1/lb vs US$5.1/lb

Europe Ferro-Vanadium 80% US$24.1/kg vs US$24.1/kg

China Ilmenite Concentrate TiO2 US$262/t vs US$262/t

US Titanium Dioxide TiO2 >98% US$3,013/t vs US$3,013/t

China Rutile Concentrate 95% TiO2 US$1,126/t vs US$1,125/t

Spot CO2 Emissions EUA Price US$65.1/t vs US$65.1/t

Brazil Potash CFR Granular Spot US$365.0/t vs US$365.0/t

Germanium China 99.99% US$3,025.0/kg vs US$3,025.0/kg

China Gallium 99.99% US$390.0/kg vs US$390.0/kg

EV and Battery News

Record auction for offshore wind contracts to power 12m homes in UK

• The UK government awarded Contracts for Difference (CfD) to 12 offshore wind projects totalling 8.4GW of new capacity, a record amount for a single auction in Britain and Europe.
• This new capacity is expected to generate enough clean electricity to power more than 12m homes when built.
• Winning bids secured guaranteed power prices of approximately £89.49-£91.20/MWh, which are above current wholesale prices of ~£80–£90/MWh, but deemed cheaper than building and operating new gas-fired plants.
• The auction result strengthens the UK’s 2030 decarbonisation agenda by significantly advancing offshore wind deployment, including fixed-bottom and floating wind projects.
• Government and industry voices have described the outcome as a pivotal moment for energy independence, job creation and stabilising bills, though the strike prices mean consumers may subsidise generation when market prices are lower.

Global EV growth forecast to slow in 2026

• For 2026, EV sales are forecast at 23.9m units, a 15.7% growth over the year, signalling slower global growth.
• Global EV sales rose 20% in 2025 to 20.7m units, but momentum weakened sharply toward the end of the year.
• December 2025 growth slowed to 6% yoy, the weakest monthly increase since early 2024.
• Growth in China was down to 2% in December, while North America sales fell 39% yoy, hit by the expiry of US tax credits.
• Europe, up 34% and the rest of the world, up 41%, showed positive growth in

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Company News:

Anglo Asian Mining* (AAZ LN) 275.5, Mkt Cap £314m – President Aliyev visit to Demirli Ore Processing Complex

BUY

• President Aliyev visited the Demirli Ore Processing Complex this week. The president also detonated an ore blast at the mine.
• The Minister of Economy, Mikayıl Jabbarov, and President and CEO of Azerbaijan International Mining Company Limited, Reza Vaziri, briefed the head of state on the complex.
• The complex includes a copper flotation plant, a wet tailings storage facility, an electrical substation, and other infrastructure on of 929ha site.
• Around US$9m of new investment has been recently spent to improving the complex and enhancing throughput capacity to 5.6mtpa.
• The press report indicates some 85,000t of copper in concentrate are to be shipped to China from 2025–2030.
• Work is also being done to expand copper reserves at the Demirli mine with preliminary geological exploration data indicating potential for a further 470,000t of reserves.
• The complex is expected to employ 1,250 people with initial works creating permanent employment for 980.
• Mining is undertaken by the operating company “Azerbaijan International Mining Company Limited” under an agreement signed in 2024 between “AzerGold” CJSC and the U.S.-based company “R.V. Investment Group Services” on the exploration, development, and production sharing of several ore deposits in Azerbaijan.
• “Comprehensive environmental protection measures have been implemented within the framework of the project.
• A baseline assessment and environmental monitoring were conducted, and an Environmental and Social Impact Assessment document was prepared based on the findings.
• The president is keen to see greater development in the mining sector alongside renewable energy projects and reconstruction of rural villages.
• The president visited villages the villages of Chapar, Childiran, and Heyvali in Aghdara to review reconstruction and infrastructure progress, focusing on social reintegration and housing for returning families.
• The President also inaugurated the Gozlukorpu Hydroelectric Power Plant in Aghdara.

*SP Angel acts as nomad and broker to Anglo Asian Mining

Arras Minerals (ARK CN) C$0.9, Mkt Cap C$99m – Higher-grade mineralisation intercepted at Berezski North

• Arras, who are exploring in northeastern Kazakhstan, report drill results from their Elemes Project.
• The company reports further confirmation of the ‘robustness of the mineralised trend’ at with drilling including:
  • EL25023: 246m at 1.02% CuEq (0.75g/t Au and 0.24% Cu) from surface at Berezski North
  • EL25022: 47m at 0.54% CuEq (0.42g/t Au and 0.13% Cu) from 302m
  • EL25021: 55m at 0.26% CuEq (0.11g/t Au and 0.11% Cu) from 42m
• Management notes hole EL25023 boosts confidence that high-grade mineralisation extends for over 350m between holes EL24005 and EL25016.
• Berezski North reportedly remains open in multiple directions.
• Further drilling is planned to systematically explore the target.
• Management sees the Berezski North mineralised system as stretching over 600m currently, and is aiming to step out and test the continuity of the higher-grade structure.

Atalaya Mining (ATYM LN) 907p, Mkt Cap £1,281m – Record plant throughput and rising grades deliver uprated 2025 production guidance

• Reporting preliminary final quarter production results for 2025, Atalaya Mining announces production of 11,550t of copper bringing full year output to 51,139t (2024 – 46,227t) within the upper part of the uprated guidance range of 49-52,000t announced in August.
• Production in 2025 reflects the processing of a record 16.6mt of ore at an average grade of 0.39% copper (2024 – 15.9mt at an average grade of 0.35% copper.
• Year-end copper concentrate inventories were 4,050t and the company reports a year end cash balance of €166m.
• The company’s guidance for 2026 is in the range 50-54,000t of copper output from the processing of 15.6-16.0mt of ore at between 0.38-0.41% copper reflecting expected high throughput rates and a continuation of recent trends of grade improvement.
• Guidance on costs and capital expenditure will be provided when Atalaya Mining “reports its 2025 Annual Results”.
• CEO, Alberto Lavandeira, confirmed that mining rates are increasing at San Dionisio as the company increases feed of higher-grade feedstock to the Riotinto processing plant as part of its plan to increase copper production by replacing lower grade plant feed from Cerro Colorado.
• He explained that the company is also “advancing infill drilling programmes at the San Antonio … [situated east of the Cerro Colorado pit] … and Masa Valverde deposits, and progressing engineering works associated with plant modifications that could unlock value from our polymetallic resources”.
• The drilling at Masa Valverde the drilling is focussed on “the stockwork-style mineralisation, which is expected to be amenable for processing at the existing Riotinto facilities”.
• Elsewhere, drilling is expected to start during the current quarter in the Ossa Morena project area at the Guijarro-Chaparral gold-copper project and at the Cerro Negro and Peñas Blancas permits at Riotinto East.
• In Galicia in northern Spain, Atalaya Mining “continues to engage with the many stakeholders” impacted by Proyecto Touro where it is “restoring the water quality of the rivers around Touro by operating its water treatment plant” and progressing engineering, cost estimation and financial modelling.
• A winter drilling programme is underway at the Skellefte Belt and Rockliden projects in Sweden following the completion of an 11-hole, 3,200m, programme in late November which confirmed “a significant extension of mineralisation at the Bjurträskgruvan area, with complete laboratory assays expected soon”.
• Mr. Lavandeira alluded to the continued strengthening of copper industry fundamentals “with prices setting new highs thanks to growing demand from emerging technologies, consistent supply challenges at major mines and strategic stockpiling of critical metals like copper … [and said that they support Atalaya’s confidence in] … the future and … Atalaya's positioning and outlook”.

Conclusion: Record plant throughput and improving grades helped Atalaya Mining deliver increased copper output, towards the upper end of its uprated production guidance in 2025.  Guidance for 2026 envisages continuing high throughput and continuing grade improvement to produce 50-54,000t of copper in concentrate.

Caledonia Mining (CMCL LN) 2,350p, Mkt Cap £471m – Blanket mine delivers upgraded 2025 production guidance

• Caledonia Mining confirms 2025 production of 76,213oz of gold at its Blanket gold mine in Zimbabwe meeting its increased guidance range, announced in July, of 75,500-79,500oz.
• The company comments that H2 production was “adversely affected by lower tonnages from higher grade areas … [which it says are being addressed, and by] … interruptions in the electricity supply at the end of the quarter”.
• Caledonia Mining says that despite these issues, mill “throughput remained robust, offsetting some grade pressure”.
• Looking ahead, Caledonia Mining expects 2026 gold production from the mine in the range 72,000-76,500oz with a bias towards higher production “in the second half of the year as higher-grade areas increasingly come on stream”.
• Cost guidance for Blanket in 2026 is expected in the range US$1,500-1,700/oz sold on an ‘on-mine cash’ basis and between US$2,100-2,300/oz sold on an all-in-sustaining cost basis.
• Capital expenditure in 2026 is expected to be US$162.5m, including US$132m for the Bilboes project and US$3.8m for exploration of the Motapa project.
• Chief Executive, Mark Learmonth, said that delivering the increased 2025 production guidance refelected “the resilience and operational excellence of our team”.
• He also noted that the “2026 production guidance of 72,000 - 76,500 ounces reflects the increased consistency we are focussed on from Blanket”.
• Mr. Learmonth explained that the “planned capital expenditure will support ongoing production at Blanket and advance the development of the Bilboes project and exploration at Motapa where we see long term, value enhancing synergies with Bilboes”.
• In a separate announcement today, Caledonia Mining reports the departure of Chief Operating Officer, James Mufara, and confirms that “its operations continue to be managed by the existing executive and operating team, and the operations and strategy remain unchanged”.

Conclusion: The Blanket mine has delivered the increased 2025 production guidance expected and is planning a similar level of output in 2026 as it continues to focus on ensuring consistent performance. Around 80% of capital expenditure in 2026 will be directed towards progressing the Bilboes project and exploration at Motapa.

*SP Angel mining analysts have visited Caledonia’s mining operations in Zimbabwe

Ferrexpo (FXPO LN) 68p, Mkt cap £402m – Q4 production hit on increased drone and missile strikes

• Ferrexpo reported 1.1mt total commercial, down 29%qoq and 6.14mt over 2025, down 9%yoy.
• Pellet production fell 35%qoq to 0.4mt and 47%yoy to 3.2mt.
• Concentrate production fell 24%qoq to 0.7mt but rose 311%yoy at 2.9mt.
• Group net cash position reported at $47m at 31st December vs $50m 30th June.
• Company reports impact to Q4 production as a result of increased missile and drone attacks on Ukraine’s infrastructure.
• Ferrexpo is shifting focus to production of premium grade iron ore concentrate, now 48% of total production mix vs 10% in 2024.

Linq Minerals (LNQ AU) A$0.28, Mkt Cap A$50m – Further encouraging drilling results from Dam project

• New South Wales copper-gold explorer reports additional drilling from their southern Zone drilling programme.
• Hole TDRCD002 returned 142m at 1.01g/t AuEq from 121m at 0.50g/t Au and 0.41% Cu.
• This followed previous hole TDRCD001 which returned 144m at 1g/t AuEq from 121m, at 0.5g/t Au and 0.41% Cu.
• Drilling has intersected porphyr related quartz-stockwork veining before passing the Dam Footwall Fault.
• The current Dam drilling programme is aimed at confirming downdip/along strike continuity and expansion of higher-grade gold-copper core to a vertical depth of 200m.
• Drilling will also provide provide samples for metallurgical test work.
• The Dam porphyry project holds an existing resource of 77mt at 0.5% CuEq for 0.7moz Au and 180kt Cu reported to a 300m depth.
• Management suggests the recent Dam drilling ‘significantly extends the grade and thickness of shallow gold and copper mineralisation.’
• Focus is now on the northern strike of the Dam deposit to identify additional gold and copper zones.

Sun Peak Minerals (PEAK CN) C$0.38, Mkt Cap C$55m – Saudi exploration programme gets underway as drill target delineation prioritised

• Sun Peak provides an update on its 2026 exploration programme in Saudi Arabia.
• Sun Peak is targeting exploration of VMS base metals and gold projects.
• Focus this year will be on the Safra, Al Miyah and Halahila Projects to determine drill targets.
• This will include geological mapping and geochemical sampling, TDEM surveys and wider geophysical surveys in 1Q26.
• Drilling is expected to begin later this year following the delineation of priority drill targets.

Taseko (TKO LN) 487p, Mkt cap £1.7bn – Florence commissioning advances as wellfield results beat expectations

• Taseko provides an update on Florence construction and 2025 production results from Gibraltar.
• The Gibraltar mine produced 44.4kt Cu and 860t Mo over the year.
• Production of 14kt Cu over Q4 was impacted by mill downtime, unscheduled maintenance activities and a serious accident causing a shutdown in November.
• Company expects more consistent quarterly production in 2026 given location in Connector pit.
• Management also reports Florence commissioning is complete, shifting to wellfield operations and commissioning of the SX/EW plant.
• Company notes wellfield inkection flowrates have ‘met or exceeded expectations to-date, resulting in faster initial acidification of the wellfield.’
• Taseko notes the grade of copper recovered in solution is increasing and has reached the level required for SX/EW plant operations.
• Wellfield drilling has re-commenced with three rigs on site.
• Florence Project:
  • 22 year LOM in-situ leach project in Arizona
  • Targeting 40ktpa production at cash costs of $1.11/lb
  • Post-tax NPV8 of $930m at $3.75/lb Cu.
  • Targeting design capacity in 2027

LSE Group Starmine awards for 2025 / 2024 commodity forecasting:

No.1 in Precious Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 1. ranking for Precious Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls for Q1 2025

No.1 in Precious Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 1. ranking for Precious Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls 2024

No.2 in Base Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 2. ranking for Base Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls 2024

Analysts

John Meyer –John.Meyer@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0490

Simon Beardsmore – Simon.Beardsmore@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0484

Sergey Raevskiy –Sergey.Raevskiy@spangel.co.uk - 0203 470 0474

Arthur Parish – Arthur.Parish@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0476

Sales

Richard Parlons –Richard.Parlons@spangel.co.uk - 0203 470 0472

Abigail Wayne –Abigail.Wayne@spangel.co.uk - 0203 470 0534

Rob Rees –Rob.Rees@spangel.co.uk - 0203 470 0535

Grant Barker – Grant.Barker@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0471

George Krokos - george.krokos@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0486

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*SP Angel are the No1 integrated nomad and broker by number of mining brokerage clients on AIM according to the AIM Advisers Ranking Guide (joint brokerships excluded)

+SP Angel employees may have previously held, or currently hold, shares in the companies mentioned in this note.

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