SP Angel . Morning View . Tuesday 13.01.26

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LSEG StarMine Award for Most Accurate Forecasting in Reuters Polls: - SP Angel ranked No1 for Precious Metals in the 2025

C3 Metals (CCCM CN) – Resumption of exploration activities in Jamaica following hurricane

DPM Metals (DPM CN) – FY25 production guidance met as Vares sees commercial production by year-end

European Metals Holdings (EMH LN) – EIA submitted for the Cinovec lithium project, Czechia

First Class Metals (FCM LN) – Options over rare-earth exploration areas in Ontario

Lundin Gold (LUG CN) – Guidance met as focus on throughput expansion in 2026

Petra Diamonds (PDL LN) – Cullinan mine yields a 42-carat blue diamond

Rainbow Rare Earths (RBW LN) – Pilot plant test work to confirm separation of NdPr oxide alongside SEG+ Rare Earths

Tharisa Plc (THS LN) – Production dips slightly as underground development advances

Thor Explorations (THX LN) – Guiding for 75-85koz 2026 and paying bonus dividend

Tin ($48,185/t) rises past 2022 highs whilst LME inventories build

• Tin prices have climbed past their 2022 highs of $48k/t amid concerns over Indonesian and Myanmar supply.
• The move comes despite LME tin inventories climbing to two-year highs of 5,930t, growing by 2,700t in December.
• Chinese analysts suggests tin prices are being driven by safe-haven demand, with China refining c.50% of global tin supply.
• This raises concerns that China may implement a similar export crackdown to those seen with REE and graphite in response to escalating geopolitical tensions with the US.
• SMM notes weak solder demand currently amid off-season cyclical effects, whilst focus remains on a potential restart at Myanmar mines and policy shift in Indonesia.
• Indonesia has been cracking down on illegal mining operations, particularly on Bangka-Belitung, the country’s tin mining hub.
• Indonesian officials have seized private smelting operations and transferred them to PT Timah, Indonesia’s state tin mining company.
• PT Timah is reportedly targeting 30kt of tin production in 2026, up 40% from 21.5kt in 2025.
• Yunnan Tin is targeting sustained production c.850tpa, although is yet to guide for 2026 production.  

Copper ($13,190/t) holds higher ground amid sustained tariff concerns as inventory builds

• Copper is benefiting from a continued dislocation in global supply amid sustained US tariff concerns.
• A premium for US COMEX copper prices has seen metal flow into US warehouses, tightening supply in Asia.
• As a result, LME stocks fell by 215kt (c.33%) in 2025, whilst US inventories rose by 367kt to 452kt.
• 29,750t of LME copper warrants are being cancelled today taking the total tonnage of cancelled warrants to 51,825t.
• The move indicates further metal is likely to be withdrawn from the market, presumably for shipment to the US for premium prices.
• A combination of a weaker dollar and longer-term supply concerns have helped fuel the recent rally to record highs.
• Copper is holding firm over $13,000/t as traders begin to price in supply deficits for 2026.
• We would not be surprised to see another Trump tariff U-turn push metal back into Asian markets, weighing prices in the short term.
• However, with major mine disruptions through 2025 taking over 300kt out of the market in 2026, supply tightness is expected to be a longer term theme as new projects struggle to come online.
• Majors are opting for a buy vs build approach to copper supply, and a Rio merger with Glencore is likely a continuation of that theme.
• There are limited tier one copper development stories remaining globally, with miners spooked by a series of major CAPEX inflation examples in recent years.
• For example, Teck’s QB2 CAPEX rose from $5.2bn to $8.8bn during construction, and continues to struggle with tailings management and slimes.
• BHP is currently undertaking a >$10bn CAPEX programme in Chile to sustain production and offset decline, at capital intensity of $19-26k/t for IRR of 15-19% as they aim for 1.4mtpa from their Chilean operations between 2031-2040.

Gold ($4,587/oz) price closing in on $5,000/oz following spike to $4,638/oz at 23:01 last night

IG TV - Copper, Silver and the New Commodities Cycle | Commodity Markets Weekly:  https://youtu.be/mdU5EEjc3Z8?si=BjTihCKKoeKlYHYn

Currencies

US$1.1660/eur vs 1.1689/eur previous. Yen 158.98/$ vs 157.73/$. SAr 16.427/$ vs 16.410/$. $1.347/gbp vs $1.346/gbp. 0.670/aud vs 0.670/aud. CNY 6.977/$ vs 6.974/$

Dollar Index 99.00 vs 98.78 previous

Economics:

Precious metals:         

Gold US$4,596/oz vs US$4,432/oz previous

   Gold ETFs 99.2moz vs 99.0moz previous

Platinum US$2,336/oz vs US$2,207/oz previous

Palladium US$1,832/oz vs US$1,736/oz previous

Silver US$86.0/oz vs US$75.1/oz previous

   Silver ETFs 855.3moz vs 853.0moz previous

Rhodium US$9,900/oz vs US$9,750/oz previous

Base metals:   

Copper US$13,192/t vs US$12,826/t previous

Aluminium US$3,170/t vs US$3,086/t previous

Nickel US$17,790/t vs US$17,160/t previous

Zinc US$3,224/t vs US$3,148/t previous

Lead US$2,060/t vs US$2,036/t previous

Tin US$48,195/t vs US$44,105/t previous

Energy:

Oil US$64.2/bbl vs US$63.2/bbl previous

Henry Hub Gas US$3.38/mmBtu vs US$3.27/mmBtu yesterday

• WTI crude oil prices moved back above $60/bbl for the first time in over a month on concerns that the ongoing geopolitical crisis in Iran may lead to supply disruptions.
• Hunting expects to grow EBITDA by ~10% y/y to $145-155m in 2026 with FCF at 50% of EBITDA and reiterated a 2030 target of $2bn revenues at an EBITDA margin of 15% or greater, which includes acquisition-related revenue of ~$380m.

Natural Gas €31.5/MWh vs €29.4/MWh previous

Uranium Futures $83.0/lb vs $82.7/lb previous

Bulk:

Iron Ore 62% Fe Spot (Singapore) US$108.3/t vs US$109.1/t

Chinese steel rebar 25mm US$464.6/t vs US$464.6/t

HCC FOB Australia US$226.3/t vs US$225.0/t

Thermal coal swap Australia FOB US$107.3/t vs US$107.3/t

Other:  

Cobalt LME 3m US$56,290/t vs US$56,290/t

NdPr Rare Earth Oxide (China) US$91,230/t vs US$89,553/t

Lithium carbonate 99% (China) US$21,227/t vs US$18,570/t

China Spodumene Li2O 6%min CIF US$1,890/t vs US$1,630/t

Ferro-Manganese European Mn78% min US$1,035/t vs US$1,035/t

China Tungsten APT 88.5% FOB US$1,098/mtu vs US$1,078/mtu

China Tantalum Concentrate 30% CIF US$105/lb vs US$104/mtu

China Graphite Flake -194 FOB US$410/t vs US$410/t

Europe Vanadium Pentoxide 98% US$5.1/lb vs US$5.1/lb

Europe Ferro-Vanadium 80% US$24.1/kg vs US$24.1/kg

China Ilmenite Concentrate TiO2 US$262/t vs US$262/t

US Titanium Dioxide TiO2 >98% US$3,013/t vs US$3,013/t

China Rutile Concentrate 95% TiO2 US$1,125/t vs US$1,126/t

Spot CO2 Emissions EUA Price US$65.1/t vs US$65.1/t

Brazil Potash CFR Granular Spot US$365.0/t vs US$365.0/t

Germanium China 99.99% US$3,025.0/kg vs US$3,025.0/kg

China Gallium 99.99% US$390.0/kg vs US$390.0/kg

EV & Battery news:

China forecast increased exports to EU after minimum price deal

• China’s EV exports to the EU are forecast to rise around 20% annually from 2026 to 2028, according to the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA).
• In 2025, China exported roughly 2.07m battery EVs, with about 580,000 going to the EU, and 940,000 plug-in hybrids, with 250,000 destined for the EU.
• The export growth outlook follows a tentative China-EU price undertaking agreement that could replace higher tariffs with minimum price commitments, preserving market access.
• Chinese brands have already captured over 10% of the European EV market share in 2025, highlighting their expanding competitive position.
• Analysts expect short-term sales fluctuations as companies adjust pricing and product mixes under new rules before growth resumes.



Company News:

C3 Metals (CCCM CN) C$1.41, Mkt Cap C$141m – Resumption of exploration activities in Jamaica following hurricane

• C3 Metals reports it has restored project infrastructure enabling exploration following damage done by Hurricane Melissa in October.
• The Company has completed 50% of its 14 hole, 2,500m programme at Super Block, where it is exploring for gold in JV with Geophysix
• At Bellas Gate, where Freeport is earning into the project, drilling activity has resumed with a man-portable rig.
• C3 and Freeport are also resuming a 70km2 3DIP geophysical survey, with 46km2 completed to date.
• Management worked closely with the community to support infrastructure restoration.

Conclusion: It is good to see C3 Metals are back on track with their exploration programmes in Jamaica following hurricane disruption. We look forward to further assays from Bellas Gate, where the Company is targeting high-grade gold discoveries. Further assay results are also expected from C3’s 100%-owned Khaleesi copper project in southern Peru, where the maiden drill hole returned 269m at 0.3% Cu. C3 management is targeting large-scale, bulk tonnage deposits in Peru within porphyry and skarn systems, and is expanding the initial 14 hole drill programme where assays remain pending.

DPM Metals (DPM CN) C$47.6, Mkt Cap C$10.6bn – FY25 production guidance met as Vares sees commercial production by year-end

• DPM Metals (formerly Dundee) report production results for 2025.
• Company processed 2,978kt ore across Chelopech and Ada Tepe, producing 245koz Au and 13.6kt Cu.
• Production results align with guidance of 225-265koz Au and 28-33mlb Cu.
• Ada Tepe reported its strongest production quarter of the year, producing 24.5koz.
• Company notes production from Vares was ‘minimal’ as they focus on training and decline development.
• At Vares, ore processed in 4Q25 stood at 43.8kt, producing:
  • 1.8koz Au, 243koz Ag, 477klb Cu, 3,677klb Pb and 4,961klb Zn.
• DPM expects to provide a three year outlook for Vares production, expecting to hit commercial production by year-end.

European Metals Holdings (EMH LN) 20p, Mkt Cap £43m – EIA submitted for the Cinovec lithium project, Czechia

• European Metals Holdings confirms that it has submitted the Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) study for its Cinovec lithium project to the Czech Ministry of the Environment.
• The “covers the entire Cinovec development and supports the outcomes of the recently completed Definitive Feasibility Study … which confirmed Cinovec as along-life, large-scale European lithium project with a 26+ year mine life and forecast production of approximately 37,500 tonnes per annum of battery-grade lithium carbonate”.
• Submission of the EIA “completes the two-stage EIA process, following lodgement of the screening-stage assessment earlier in 2025, and represents a key regulatory milestone for the Project”.
• Following formal review and public consultation approval of the environmental permits will represent a significant milestone for the Cinovec project.
• Today’s announcement confirms the approval, in April 2025, of ~US$36m of Czech grant funding for the project which is conditional on “Approval of the EIA by the Czech Ministry of the Environment by 30 June 2026”.
• Executive Chairman, Keith Coughlan, commented that “Environmental approvals are critical to development in the Czech Republic, and meeting the EIA submission deadline was a key requirement”.

Conclusion: Submission of the EIA for Cinovec is an important step towards project approval and is one of the key conditions for grant funding.

First Class Metals (FCM LN) 2.13p, Mkt Cap £4.9m – Options over rare-earth exploration areas in Ontario

1. First Class Metals has secured an option over two potential rare-earth minerals properties in the Atikokan area of NW Ontario.
2. Initial exploration of the properties (the 18km2 Block H and the 33km2 Block F) is expected in the spring with “ground-truthing … [of] … historic anomalies, validating assays, and refining geological controls on mineralisation”.
3. The company will pay a total of C$73,500 in cash and C$60,000 in shares, over a three-year period, to exercise the option over Block F.
4. Payments to exercise the option over Block H comprise C$67,600in cash and C$30,000 in shares, also over a three-year period.
5. The company confirms that “Gold remains the cornerstone of FCM's exploration strategy and continues to underpin our approach to value accretion to FCM's Ontario properties. However, … the opportunity presented by these two properties is particularly compelling”.

Conclusion: While gold exploration remains the primary focus, the company is broadening its Ontario exploration portfolio with options over potentially rare-earth bearing properties.

Lundin Gold (LUG CN) C$118, Mkt Cap C$29bn – Guidance met as focus on throughput expansion in 2026

• Lundin Gold, operator of the Fruta del Norte mine, report production results for 2025.
• The Company processed 485kt over 4Q25, at an average head grade of 8.7g/t and recoveries of 88.3%.
• This resulted in production of 119.5koz, down from 135koz same quarter last year on lower head grade.
• Company sold 124koz at an average price of $4,299/oz over the quarter.
• 2025 production stood at 498koz, down marginally from FY24 at 502koz but in line with guidance of 490-525koz.
• Company is ramping up the mill to average daily throughput of 5,500t, with targeted recoveries of 91%.
• Company guides for 475-525koz for FY26.

Petra Diamonds (PDL LN) 18.05p, Mkt Cap £57m – Cullinan mine yields a 42-carat blue diamond

• Petra Diamonds reports that its Cullinan mine in South Africa has yielded a 41.82 carat Type IIb blue diamond.
• The company reports that the stone seems to be of “exceptional quality in terms of both its colour and clarity … [and that it is] … is in the process of analysing the stone and ascertaining the preferred method of the sale”.
• The Cullinan mine has, historically, been “known for the recovery of very rare and highly valuable blue diamonds” and this latest discovery continues the precedent.
• In the September 2025 quarter, Cullinan produced around 330,000carats and sold 278,968 carats at an average price of US$130/carat.

Rainbow Rare Earths (RBW LN) 19.5p, mkt Cap £126m – Pilot plant test work to confirm separation of NdPr oxide alongside SEG+ Rare Earths

• Rainbow Rare Earths have started operating on the final phase of process test work for the separation of NdPr oxide and heavy rare earth concentrate.
• Rainbow’s in-house plant, at Mintek in Johannesburg is piloting the first part of the process flowsheet.
• Off-site SX ‘Solvent Extraction’ test work to confirm the SX separation process to deliver separated NdPr oxide SEG+ concentrate.
  • SEG+ MREC >99.5% purity product should contain ~719 tpa TREO
  • NdPr output is targeting ~1,817tpa of 99.5% NdPr oxide
• The leach circuit will feed concentrated leach solution into a pilot-scale CIX ‘Continuous ion Exchange’ and impurity removal circuit.
• This is Rainbow’s intellectual property and will create a bulk feed sample for the off-site SX test work.
• Optimisation: The leach process has been reduced from three stages to two with residence times reduced to 8 hours from 32 hours
• This has enabled the leach heating to be reduced and the number of filters to be halved to seven cutting capital and operating costs.
• Feed from the in-house pilot plant will be sent for off-site SX test work to create data for the DFS and process design work enabling third-party validation for project finance.
• SX process: ANSTO have confirmed a two-stage ‘SX’ Solvent Extraction circuit will to produce separated NdPr oxide and SEG+ high purity mixed rare earth carbonate at +99.5% purity from test material produced at Rainbow’s in-house laboratory.
• REE pricing:
  • Rare Earth pries have risen in China in recent months to US$91,230/t for NdPr Oxide from a low of ~US$57,330 in April.
  • The US DoD ‘Department of Defense’ is guaranteeing higher prices for REEs with a floor price of US$110,000/t of NdPr oxide for MP Materials set for 10 years.
  • The US DoD has also committed to take 100% of the magnets produced at MP Materials new 10X Facility.
  • The opportunity exists for any REE producer to use its product to develop value-added downstream process for the production of permanent magnets and other high-value materials.
• REE demand: The demand outlook for NdPr and many other REEs has strengthened in recent years
• NdPr oxide demand is forecast to rise by 8.4% CAGR by 2035 according to Arthur D Little and 8-12% pa this year according to BMI.
  • Wind turbines -
    • offshore wind capacity expected to grow 18 per cent in 2025 and 18.9 per cent in 2026.
  • EVs:
    • Global EV sales rose 20% last year to 20.6m vehicles and are forecast to rise a further 8% this year
    • Each EV uses between 0.7-1kg of NdPr Oxide in around 3-5kg of NdFeB magnets
  • Defense (missiles & drones)
    • NdPr use in defense application rose 7% between 2022 and 2024 and is expected to rise exponentially towards 2030
    • Modern autonomous drone tanks and combat robots can require 50-100 kg of NdPr per vehicle
  • Robotics
    • Humanoid robots are expected to use around 0.9kg per robot with very significant growth expected
  • Consumer electronics
    • Electronics sector accounted for roughly 28% of NdPr oxide consumption in 2023.
• REE supply: is being constrained by new Chinese control on licensing and production.
• NdPr oxide production is forecast to rise by 6.3% this year following a 3.2% expected rise in 2025, mostly from China but with some new production in the US, Australia and Brazil.
• Deficit: The market is expected to experience a growing structural deficit
  • Forecasts estimate a significant 13-26% deficit by 2040-2050 if no new non-Chinese supply is developed. 

Conclusion:  Rainbow are finalising the testing and development of their process flowsheet.

The ability to sufficiently purify the feed concentrate ahead of the SX circuit should enable the development of workable flowsheet.

We look forward to gaining a better understanding of the process on the site visit in February.

*The analyst will visit the Rainbow pilot process plant in Johannesburg and will report on its operation.

Tharisa Plc (THS LN) 128p, Mkt Cap £378m – Production dips slightly as underground development advances

• PGM and chrome producer Tharisa reports 4Q25 results.
• The Company produced 38.8koz 6E PGMs, down 6.1%qoq, with milling down 4.8%.
• Average PGM basket price increased 13.1%qoq to $2,208/oz.
• Chrome production fell 14.2%qoq to 349kt, with average chrome concentrate prices flat at $275/t.
• Cash position fell to $122m from $173m prior quarter, with debt falling to $75m from $104m.
• Company guides for 145-165koz PGMs and 1.5-1.6mt chrome concentrates.
• Management notes underground development is progressing ‘in line with our strategic plans’ whilst Karo development is progressing.
• Tharisa’s underground DFS suggests 10 years of mining, with 30.4mt at 1.45g/t 6E PGMs in reserves.
• Underground CAPEX guided at $547m, which includes both the Orion and Apollo shafts.
• Steady state from the Apollo shaft is guided by FY29.

Thor Explorations (THX LN) 73p, Mkt Cap £480m – Guiding for 75-85koz 2026 and paying bonus dividend

• Thor reports FY25 production data for Segilola and provides an update on its exploration/development properties in Nigeria and Senegal.
• Thor processed 242kt ore over the quarter at 3.31g/t Au, producing 24.4koz vs 23.6koz prior quarter.
• FY25 gold production reported at 91.9koz in line with original guidance of 85-95koz.
• Thor guides for 75-85koz au in FY26 at AISC of $1,000-1,200/oz.
• Company is aiming to deliver the Douta PFS on 26th January.
• Additional RC drilling is targeted at Douta for increased oxide resources.
• Underground drilling at Segilola is starting this year, with scout drilling on identified regional targets.
• Initial drill programmes are due in Cote d’Ivoire this year at Guitry and Boundiali.
• Thor reports Q4 cash position of $137m and bullion of 3,188oz.
• Thor will pay an additional bonus dividend of C$0.015/share on top of the Q4 dividend of C$0.0125/share.

LSE Group Starmine awards for 2025 / 2024 commodity forecasting:

No.1 in Precious Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 1. ranking for Precious Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls for Q1 2025

No.1 in Precious Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 1. ranking for Precious Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls 2024

No.2 in Base Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 2. ranking for Base Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls 2024

Analysts

John Meyer –John.Meyer@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0490

Simon Beardsmore – Simon.Beardsmore@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0484

Sergey Raevskiy –Sergey.Raevskiy@spangel.co.uk - 0203 470 0474

Arthur Parish – Arthur.Parish@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0476

Sales

Richard Parlons –Richard.Parlons@spangel.co.uk - 0203 470 0472

Abigail Wayne –Abigail.Wayne@spangel.co.uk - 0203 470 0534

Rob Rees –Rob.Rees@spangel.co.uk - 0203 470 0535

Grant Barker – Grant.Barker@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0471

George Krokos - george.krokos@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0486

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