VietNam Holding (VNH ) has reported a resilient October performance for both Vietnam’s economy and its own portfolio, despite severe flooding and typhoons disrupting parts of the country. The Fund’s net asset value (NAV) per share fell 3.1% in October against a 0.7% decline in the VNAS Index, while remaining up 7.5% in gross terms for the first ten months of 2025.
Severe weather in Vietnam led to the loss of 90 lives and weighed on retail activity, with retail sales growth easing to 7.2% as consumers stayed at home. However, Vietnam’s factories continued to operate and the country’s manufacturing sector delivered a strong performance, with the purchasing managers’ index at 54.4, the highest reading among major economies and ahead of China, the EU, Japan and Korea.
Exports increased 18.2% year-on-year (YoY) in the first ten months of 2025, driving a trade surplus of US$19.6 billion over the same period. Computers and electronic products led the expansion, growing 47.9% YoY and now accounting for 22.3% of total exports, underlining Vietnam’s role as a key centre in global technology supply chains. Foreign direct investment (FDI) disbursements reached US$21.3 billion, up 8.8% YoY, while registered FDI of US$31.5 billion, an increase of 15.6%, points to sustained confidence from multinational investors.
Public investment disbursement reached around 70% of the annual target, keeping infrastructure development on track despite the challenging conditions. Meanwhile, after several months of strong gains, the VNIndex entered a consolidation phase from late August through October. Market liquidity also eased but remained relatively high at between US$1 billion and US$1.2 billion per day, which is still well above historical averages and indicates ongoing investor interest.
VietNam Holding’s October underperformance versus the VNAS Index was mainly driven by banking and financial holdings, which make up 38.1% of the portfolio. MB Bank slipped 1.3% in the month and Vietnam Technological and Commercial Bank declined 6%, even though both have been major contributors to the Fund’s year-to-date performance, with gains of 39.5% and 41.6% respectively through October.
Valuation was a quieter but important theme in October. The VNIndex is trading on a forward price to earnings multiple of 15.9 times against an expected 24% earnings growth rate for 2025. This sits alongside a macro backdrop of 8% projected GDP growth, a relatively stable currency - the Vietnamese dong depreciated just 3.2% in the first ten months of 2025, less than many emerging Asian peers - and a manufacturing sector operating at high capacity.
By comparison, VietNam Holding trades at around 11.8 times forward earnings with double-digit earnings growth expected. The portfolio continues to mirror Vietnam’s key structural growth drivers, with banks at 38.1% financing industrialisation, real estate at 18.1% reflecting urbanisation, and retail at 10.6% positioned for a recovery in domestic consumption as weather disruptions fade.
Mobile World Corp, the Fund’s largest holding at 9.6% of NAV, is delivering strong revenue and profit growth, demonstrating the resilience of well-managed consumer franchises even in tougher conditions. Its valuation at roughly 13 times earnings and a single-digit enterprise value to Ebitda multiple remains attractive in that context. Overall, the top ten holdings account for 62.5% of NAV, signalling high conviction in Vietnam’s long-term growth themes.
Looking ahead, VietNam Holding expects the third-quarter earnings season, along with new initial public offerings and re-listings on the main exchange, to provide further catalysts as 2025 draws to a close. The Fund believes Vietnam’s structural advantages - including a young workforce, strategic geography, business-friendly reforms and sustained FDI inflows - remain firmly in place despite October’s storms.
View from Vox
October’s weather disruption has created a short-term drag on consumption and on VietNam Holding’s monthly NAV, but the macro data still point to a robust, export-led growth story backed by rising FDI and public investment. Valuations for both the broader market and the Fund appear reasonable against expected earnings growth and a relatively stable currency.
With a concentrated tilt towards banks and leading consumer names, VietNam Holding is positioned to benefit if liquidity remains healthy and earnings momentum continues into 2026.