SP Angel – Morning View – Monday 10 09 18
Trump says may put tariffs on all Chinese imports
MiFID II exempt information – see disclaimer below
Cradle Arc* (CRA LN) – Kossanto joint venture
Savannah Resources (SAV LN) –Grandao resource upgrade
Orosur Mining (OMI LN) – Newmont commits to spend $10-30m on Anzá gold project in Colombia in three-stage earn-in
Bulk and Industrial commodities rise despite selling of LME metals
- Commodity markets are diverging as Industry and traders continue to buy-up bulk and industrial commodities while speculators and funds lead LME and other major traded metals lower.
- The divergence reflects the impact of speculator and momentum selling caused by the stronger US dollar and flow of funds back into the US and the US dollar prompted by lower US taxes and higher US interest rates.
- For now speculative selling led by expectations for an increase in Trump Tariffs and some slowing of Chinese and global growth is leading base metals lower despite the strong indication from bulk and industrial commodity markets that growth remains good and news that China will continues to support areas impacted by new Tariff demands.
- However with Trump saying that he might put tariffs on all Chinese imports this marks a potential escalation of the tariff war into a new dimension.
Metals pressured by trade fears as Trump threatens escalation
- Metals broadly tumbled, with copper losing more than 1%, as President Donald Trump threatens to place tariffs on all Chinese imports deepened concerns about the impact on demand of the prolonged trade spat between the world’s two biggest economies. Prices fell on the London Metal Exchange, tracking earlier losses with China’s yuan, as the Trump administration announce preparation to tax all goods at short notice.
- The warning dealt a further blow to metals already reeling from trade fears and emerging-market stress. Copper dropped as much as 1.2% to $5,850/t. Nickel’s set for the lowest close this year.
- Goldman Sachs Group Inc analysts note “while our economists think the fundamentals across the majority of EM countries are relatively healthy, risks of financial spillovers and market downdraws are meaningful. Trade tensions and EM concerns add up to a challenging environment for base metals”.
- The LMEX Index of six base metals extends three months of declines and is already lower for September, as the chance for a trade deal between the US and China appear more remote than ever.
- Expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep raising interest rates - especially in light of Friday’s strong jobs report - is strengthening the dollar and piling pressure on other currencies, including the yuan, which weakens the purchasing power of importers in the world’s top metals consumer.
Open seasons on Junior miners as Newmont takes 19.9% of shares at 200% premium in Orosur.
- The move follows closely on the heels of BHP Billiton acquiring a 6.1% stake in SolGold for $27m last week.
- The Orosur agreement gives Newmont a 19.9% stake in Orosur and the right to spend $10-30m to earn into the Anza project
- Zijin Mining have made a hostile offer US$1.41bn for Nevsun causing Lundin Mining to back away leaving us wondering what Lundin Mining might go after next.
- Oz Minerals took over Avanco for A$418m
Vertical Aerospace – air taxi granted flight permission by the CAA
- Vertical Aerospace has been granted permission by the Civil Aviation Authority to fly its eVTOL aircraft.
- The company is targeting a 500 mile range and is looking to produce a fixed-wing piloted version of the aircraft for multiple passengers
- The team are looking to win certification in the first stage of the air taxi project through 2022.
- The company is using Formula 1 technology where engines give greater power per kilo than conventional jet turbines
- https://www.vertical-aerospace.com/
Private Equity - Abraaj healthcare fund faces allegations of misuse of investor money
- The Abraaj fund based in Dubai run by Karachi born, Arif Naqvi, with $14bn under management stands accused of misusing investor funds according to the FT
- The group is thought to have used investor funds to support its extravagant running and staff costs and expenses possibly including buying back its own shares.
- The Gates Foundation and IFC both asked for their money back leading to a loss of confidence which has brought the Abraaj fund down.
- So far the auditors have discovered US$1.1bn in debt within the Abraaj group.
- The Abraaj scandal is causing Private Equity fund investors to have a good look at other funds to check that investor funds are not being misused similarly elsewhere.
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Dow Jones Industrials |
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Nikkei 225 |
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HK Hang Seng |
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Shanghai Composite |
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AIM Basic Resources |
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2,162 |
Economics
US – President Trump threatened a further $267bn in import tariffs on top of the $200bn proposed and $50bn implemented so far on Friday last week.
- That would cover all Chinese imports to the US.
- Meanwhile, Trump said that the administration would move “very soon” to impose tariffs on $200bn following the end of the public consultation period last week.
- Trump comments weighed on base metals prices this morning with copper down nearly a percentage point and trading at $5,880/t while Chinese equities index posted a 1.45% drop on Monday (CSI 300).
- On a separate note, payroll numbers released on Friday came in stronger than forecast although previous two months saw 50k downward revision.
- Importantly, labour earnings growth surprisingly picked up in August which may be driven by tightening labour market conditions.
- Probability of the rate hike in December picked up marginally to 68% from 64% on the release of the data while 2y and 10y government bond yields have also increased to 2.68% (+4bp) and 2.92% (+3bp), respectively.
- NFP (‘000): 201 v 147 (revised from 157) in July and 190 forecast.
- Unemployment (%): 3.9 v 3.9 in July and 3.8 forecast.
- Av Hourly Earnings (%mom/yoy): 0.4/2.9 v 0.3/2.7 in July and 0.2/2.7 forecast.
China – Consumer inflation climbed to a six-month high in August while pork prices pulled back with broader food prices more than compensating ffor that drop.
- The move in retail pork prices came in contrast to numbers on wholesale prices which showed an increase (+5.2% v -4.9% in CPI report) during the same period on the back of culls and limits on transportation of animals around China amid a series of African Swine Fever outbreaks.
- CPI (%mom/yoy): 2.3 v 2.1 in July and 2.1 forecast.
- PPI (%mom/yoy): 4.1 v 4.6 in July and 4.0 forecast.
Japan – Quarterly economic growth has been revised to the fastest pace in more than two years on the back of upgrade in private capital expenditure numbers.
- Private non-residential investment in GDP terms increased 3.1%qoq compared with the preliminary reading of a 1.3%qoq gain marking the seventh straight quarter of increases in capex.
- Stronger business investment reflects optimism over the growth outlook, despite continuing global trade tensions.
- GDP (%qoq annualised): 3.0 v 1.9 first reading and 2.6 forecast.
UK – Economic growth accelerated to the strongest level in almost a year through July amid a pick up in construction and services sectors on good weather recovering from a snow-blighted start to the year.
- Manufacturing and industrial production, by contrast, contracted
- GDP increased 0.6%qoq in three months to July (2.4% annualised) beating market estimates for a 0.4%qoq reading.
- The pound climbed slightly on the news and is currently trading at 1.2938 against the US$.
- On Brexit negotiations, a meeting of 27 EU leaders in Salzburg this month may potentially result in providing new instructions to Michael Barnier to help close a deal with Britain, according to a senior EU diplomat; one EU diplomat even dubbed it a “save Theresa” operation.
- PM Brexit plan was under criticism from former foreign secretary Boris Johnson over the weekend with as many as 80 Tory MPs are reported to have been prepared to vote down the PM Chequers proposal.
- The BoE to hold its monetary policy meeting this week with rate decision due on Thursday and estimates for the rate to remain at 0.75%.
Russia – The rouble crossed the 70 mark against the US$ for the first time since 2016 amid general weakness in emerging market currencies, FX purchases by the central bank as well as prospects of new sanctions.
- This YTD rouble losses to 17.5%.
Currencies
US$1.1543/eur vs 1.1639/eur last week Yen 111.01/$ vs 110.70/$ SAr 15.267/$ vs 15.242/$ $1.291/gbp vs $1.294/gbp 0.710/aud vs 0.715/aud CNY 6.861/$ vs 6.839/$
Commodity News
Precious metals:
Gold US$1,193/oz vs US$1,199/oz last week
- Bullion for immediate delivery opens the week with a fall, extending losses after data showed rising US wages indicates growing momentum in the economy, which could pave the way for further interest rate hikes and hurt the appeal of non-interest bearing bullion. Gold dropped -0.3% after losing -0.4% last week.
- The nascent recovery in gold appears to be cut short as hedge funds continue their bearish bets in bullion futures and options, with the short position rising +0.5% in the week ending Sept. 4, according to Commodity Futures Trading Commission data released Friday in Washington. Bears bets had fallen in the prior week for the first time since mid-June.
- Friday’s US employment report sent prices to an eighth weekly loss in nine on faster US hiring and wage growth crimped demand for the haven metal previously sought against easing dollar gains and emerging-markets turmoil. Employment data only served to highlight “that the recent gains are not sustainable”, according to BB&T Wealth Management senior vice president – “as long as the Fed is in rate increase mode, that’s going to be a headwind for the price of gold”.
- Nonfarm payrolls rose 201,000 in August, a Labor Department report showed Friday. The median estimate of analysts surveyed by Bloomberg called for a gain of 190,000 jobs. Average hourly earnings increased 2.9% from a year earlier while the jobless rate was unchanged at 3.9%, still near the lowest since the 1960’s.
- Losses will impact ETF investors, as ETFS Physical Gold, the fourth-largest fund backed by bullion, attracted $56m in the week through Thursday after a $14m outflow the previous week.
Gold ETFs 67.8moz vs US$67.9moz last week
Platinum US$780/oz vs US$793/oz last week
Palladium US$978/oz vs US$974/oz last week
Silver US$14.13/oz vs US$14.12/oz last week
Base metals:
Copper US$ 5,855/t vs US$5,871/t last week
Aluminium US$ 2,047/t vs US$2,048/t last week
- A challenging global environment stemming from trade tensions and EM concerns are beating down base metals, but Goldman Sachs “maintain near-term neutral view and see most value in aluminium on cost support”. However, the market is expected to return to crisis as US sanctions leave United Co. Rusal locked out of crucial contract negotiations beginning this week in Berlin.
- The US allowed Rusal customers with existing supply deals to maintain business as normal with the company until Oct. 23, but without signing new contracts. Unless the U.S. Treasury lifts the sanctions in time -- which remains a possibility -- the No. 2 supplier of aluminum will be sidelined from the annual negotiations and could soon be forced to scale back output across its refining operations which form a fundamental part of the global supply chain.
- Unless Rusal can secure a deal with the Treasury, the major could be removed from annual supply deals typically negotiated on the sidelines of the Metal Bulletin aluminium conference taking place this week. Despite billionaire owner Oleg Deripaska’s representatives being in constant contact with the Treasury, there remains no indication when a deal may be reached. Without a resolution this month allowing it to sign new contracts, Rusal may be forced to start shutting down some production lines.
- The looming supply shock is not being reflected in aluminum prices, which are back at the same levels as before the sanctions were announced. Traders appear to be taking comfort from the Treasury’s assurances that it is targeting Deripaska, not Rusal’s workers or its global aluminum business.
- Rio Tinto Group, which is both a supplier to and a customer of Rusal, was forced to suspend contracts briefly with the company in April. It may need to do so again unless the Treasury agrees to lift sanctions soon. Until there’s a resolution, Glencore Plc will be unable to renew a multi-year offtake agreement for Rusal’s metal that’s been the cornerstone of its aluminum trading business for years, but which is set to expire at the end of 2018.
- Options traders are bracing for turmoil, as implied volatility begins spiking back towards record April levels. Alumina, the key raw material consumed to manufacture aluminium, is also surging back towards all-time highs.
Nickel US$ 12,315/t vs US$12,265/t last week
Zinc US$ 2,403/t vs US$2,417/t last week
Lead US$ 2,069/t vs US$2,031/t last week
Tin US$ 19,050/t vs US$18,840/t last week
Energy:
Oil US$77.5/bbl vs US$76.6/bbl last week
Natural Gas US$2.770/mmbtu vs US$2.779/mmbtu last week
Uranium US$26.90/lb vs US$26.60/lb last week
Bulk:
Iron ore 62% Fe spot (cfr Tianjin) US$67.9/t vs US$68.0/t - Iron Ore prices continue to rise with the spot price for benchmark 62% fines rose 0.1% to $68.48/t (Metal Bulletin)
- Iron ore spot markets continued to push higher on Friday, adding to gains seen earlier in the week
Chinese steel rebar 25mm US$698.6/t vs US$692.8/t
- Rebar futures advance as environmental checks in China’s Shanxi province boost prospects for sustained winter interruptions to supply, as the most active price hit 4,268 yuan/ton, closing in on the highest price since 2011.
- Officials assessing plants in four cities in Shanxi form part of the fourth wave of inspections in the province this year alone, Xinhua reports on Sunday. Inspections began Friday and will be “more stringent” than previous checks, according to the report.
- Further, winter production curbs planned for September would be harsher than August in China’s key steelmaking hub of Tangshan, with intense supply pressures remaining on the back of the recent environmental announcements.
Thermal coal (1st year forward cif ARA) US$93.5/t vs US$95.2/t
Premium hard coking coal Aus fob US$182.2/t vs US$182.2/t - Dalian Coking coal futures extend rally on smog
- Chinese coking coal futures rose their most in a month buoyed by firm physical prices as environmental inspections in major coal mining hubs of Shanxi and Shaanxi province increased concerns about falling output.
- The coking coal contract for January delivery on the Dalian Commodity Exchange jumped as much as 4% to 1268.5rmb/t, before closing at 1283.5rmb/t.
Other:
Cobalt LME 3m US$62,000/t vs US$62,750/t
Tungsten APT European US$275-290/mtu vs US$275-290/mtu
Lithium - Lithium Australia produces results in pilot plant trial of lithium extraction technology
- Lithium Australia NL (ASX:LIT) has produced results during the first stage of a pilot plant trial of its proprietary SiLeach process aimed at extracting lithium from mine waste.
- The first stage of the trial at ANSTO’s minerals piloting facility in NSW produced a lithium pregnant liquor from lepidolite feed.
- Stage II, which begins this week, will process the liquor to produce lithium chemicals.
Membrane coating prolongs lithium-sulfur battery life
- Mohamed Alkordi at Zewail City of Science and Technology in Egypt and co-workers have fabricated a flexible coating for a commercially available membrane that is placed between the lithium and sulfur components of the battery
- The membrane is coated with a metal–organic framework which hinders the diffusion of the polysulfides
- In comparison to other Li–S batteries, the team found that their novel membrane significantly improved the cell’s storage ability, retaining 98.5 per cent of its capacity after 40 hours. It also had enhanced thermal stability and ionic conductivity.
Battery made on Paper and powered by bacteria
- A team of scientists at the State University of New York has developed a paper-based, single-use battery that uses bacteria from water or saliva as a power source
- The battery involves plastering freeze-dried exoelectrogenic bacteria onto pieces of paper with thin layers of metals and other materials printed onto the paper’s surface. Exoelectrogens can transfer electrons outside of their cells. When said electrons pass through their cell membrane and touch anodes on the paper’s surface, they generate electricity.
- When depleted, the battery decomposes naturally
IIT-H develops new electrodes for producing rechargeable lithium batteries
- The Indian Institute of Tecnology Hyderabad team has developed ‘new electrodes’ for producing rechargeable lithium ion batteries with high energy densities.
- Dr Surendra K. Martha and his team have developed new electrode (both cathode and anode) material with higher specific capacities than conventionally used electrodes.
- They have also developed two kinds of cathode material with better capacity than existing systems. In one, they synthesised mixtures of transition metal oxide and carbon-coated lithium manganese phosphate to form ‘blends’ that showed excellent stability under repeated cycling and very little energy loss over cycle life.
- The capacity of these electrodes is around 225 mAhg-1.
Company News
Cradle Arc* (CRA LN) 3.6p, mkt cap £10m – Kossanto joint venture
- Cradle Arc reports that is has agreed a joint venture to fund all costs up to and including a pre-feasibility study (PFS) for its 137km2 Kossanto West gold exploration project in western Mali.
- Australian listed Indiana Resources will earn a 65% interest in Cradle Arc’s 90% of project on completion of the PFS, thereafter, all costs will be divided on a 65:35 basis. The Mali Government is expected to hold a 10% free carried interest in any future mine development .
- The project area covers a “regionally significant Main Transcurrent Shear Zone ("MTZ") appears to change its strike direction from NNE to NNW, and exploration work completed by Cradle Arc and confirmed by [previous owners] Randgold identified numerous high-grade gold targets coincident with this change of the MTZ.”
- Initial work planned for the advancement of the project “includes further geological mapping of Kossanto West with potential follow up pitting and trenching activities and reconnaissance drilling, which is anticipated to be undertaken by Indiana Resources over the first 12 months”.
- Commenting on the formation of the joint-venture and its ability to free up Cradle Arc to focus on its Mowana mine in Botswana, CEO, Kevin van Wouw pointed out that “The terms of the JV do not require Cradle Arc to fund exploration activities up to the PFS stage, such that accordingly there will be minimal impact on the Company's balance sheet as we continue to focus on our core asset in Botswana”.
Conclusion: Cradle Arc’s clearly expressed priority is the development of the Mowana operation and hence the joint venture to advance Kossanto West through a joint venture with Indiana Resources exposes it to any upside success while minimising expenditure for Cradle Arc and freeing up management to focus on the Botswana operation.
*SP Angel acts as Joint Broker to Cradle Arc plc
Orosur Mining (OMI LN) 2.5 pence, Mkt Cap £2.9m – Newmont commits to spend $10-30m on Anzá gold project in Colombia in three-stage earn-in
- Newmont Mining have agreed a three-phase earn-in structure with Orosur over its Anzá gold project in Colombia.
- The world’s largest gold miner also agreed to take a $2m (19.9%) stake in Orosur shares at a 200% premium to the prevailing share price.
- Anzá is 50km West of the beautiful city of Medellin made famous by the Medellin Cartel run by Pablo Escobar
- The earn-in structure works as follows:.
- $10m to earn 51% of Anzá + $2m of cash in the first two years.
- $20m to earn a further 14% of the Anzá project with a NI 43-101 compliant Pre-feasibility Study + $2m in cash
- Production of a NI 43-101 compliant Feasibility Study within a further four years.
- The earn-in structure allows for Newmont to take up to 10 years to move to an 80% position though the process would likely move much faster if the project proves to be a multi-million ounce gold and zinc resource.
- Newmont hold 20% of Continental Gold with the CEO of Newmont reckoning that Colombia might be the next Peru. Though AngloGold Ashanti might be forgiven for seeing Colombia as a La Colosa disaster following opposition from locals and permitting issues with the state.
- Orosur moved to cut costs and restructure its various business units in June placing it’s key operating subsidiary in Uruguay, Loryser, into voluntary creditor protection.
- The move cut forecast gold production to 2,500 - 3,500oz for 2019 with operating costs of US$1,000-1,100/oz from the San Gregorio mine in Uruguay in Q119 with the mine to be placed on care and maintenance next year.
Conclusion: This is great news for Orosur and its investors.
Savannah Resources (SAV LN) 5.6p, Mkt cap £6.6m –Grandao resource upgrade
- Savannah Resources has announced a 64% increase in the mineral resource estimate at the Grandao project to 16.4mt at an average grade of 1.04% Li2O. The measured component of the resource is reported to be 5.5mt at an average grade of 1.08% Li2O with a further 4.9mt of indicated material at an average grade of 0.93% Li2O and the remaining 6.1mt at 1.1% Li2O in the inferred category.
- The increased estimate for Grandao lifts the overall resource estimate for the wider Mina do Barroso licence area by 44% to 20.1mt at an average grade of 1.04% Li2O. All the project’s measured and indicated resources are currently at Grandao with a total of 9.7mt at an average of 1.1% Li2O identified as inferred with 3.2mt at an average grade of 1.0% Li2O identified at Reservatorio and 0.5mt averaging 1.2% Li2O at the NOA deposit
- The latest estimate for Grandao is based on the results from 88 reverse-circulation drill holes, seven diamond drill holes and a further 15 reverse circulation holes with diamond core tails. The holes were “drilled on approximate grid spacing of 40-60m with a number of closer spaced holes in the shallower part of the deposit.”
- The company also provides guidance as to the expansion potential of the Mina do Barroso project “To quantify the potential of the Project beyond the currently defined Mineral Resource Estimates, an initial Exploration Target* for the Grandao and Reservatorio Deposits of 8-12Mt at 1.0% to 1.2% Li₂O has been defined. This gives a project target (including Mineral Resource Estimate) of 29-35Mt at 1.0-1.2% Li₂O.”
- Commenting on the announcement, CEO, David Archer, said that the revised mineral resource estimate “shows that Mina do Barroso is shaping up to be Europe's most strategically significant mineral discovery in recent years”.
- He highlighted that this is “the third Mineral Resource Estimate upgrade in less than seven months; this is testament to both the quality of our Project and skill set of our team. There is considerable potential to expand the Mineral Resource Estimate even further, as highlighted by the 9Mt to 15Mt Exploration Target, and our intensive round of drilling continues with three drill rigs on site.”
- Mr. Archer reported that work on the Feasibility Study is progressing well as a prelude to“making a mine development decision next year”. A scoping study announced in June this year concluded that that initial capex of US$109m to develop a shallow open-pit operation producing a 6% spodumene concentrate at the rate of 175,000 tpa over 11 years would deliver a pre-tax NPV8% of US$356m and an IRR of 63.2%. At the after tax level, the project achieves an NPV8% of US$241m and IRR of 48.6%.
- Assisted by a relatively low waste:ore stripping ratio of 1.6:1 during the first 4 years and of 5.2:1 over the full mine life costs at the scoping study stage were estimated to be US$271 per tonne of concentrate and the base case assessment assumed a price of US$685/tonne for 6% spodumene concentrate. On this basis, project payback was expected to be 1.7 years.
- In our opinion, the increased size of the mineral resource may trigger a review of the potential scale of an operation at Mina do Barroso and / or provide additional flexibility in scheduling the extraction sequence which may provide opportunities to enhance the economic outcome for the project.
Conclusion: Savannah Resources has further increased the mineral resource estimate for its Grandao lithium project at similar grades. A feasibility study for project development is underway and we imagine that the larger resource base may provide flexibility to reconsider development options either in terms of scale and/or of mine sequencing to optimise the economics of the project. We look forward to the results of the Feasibility Study.
Analysts
John Meyer – 0203 470 0490
Simon Beardsmore – 0203 470 0484
Sergey Raevskiy – 0203 470 0474
Phil Smith (Technology) – 0203 470 0475
Zac Phillips (Oil & Gas) – 0203 470 0481
Sales
Richard Parlons – 0203 470 0472
Jonathan Williams – 0203 470 0471
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