SP Angel . Morning View . Tuesday 27.01.26

MiFID II exempt information – see disclaimer below

Allied Gold (AAUC CN) – C$5.5bn all-cash offer from Zijin Gold

Bradda Head (BHL LN)  – Expanding its Arizona lithium exploration holdings

Empire Metals* (EEE LN)  – Continued flowsheet optimisation at Scoping Study due 2026

Fulcrum Metals (FMET LN)  – Auger drilling results from Ontario mine tailings project

Ionic Rare Earths (IXR AU) – Offer in Principle for a £12m UK government grant

Pallas Resources* (Private) – Initial drilling shows shallow copper mineralisation in central Kazakhstan

Pasofino Gold (VEIN CN) – Cash offer for Mansa (51% shareholder)

Phoenix Copper* (PXC LN)  – Short-term loan refinancing

Power Metal Resources* (POW LN)  – Gold exploration to recommence at Tati Gold Project, Botswana

Sylvania Platinum (SLP LN)  – Q2 sets 2nd successive quarterly production record

Gold $5,095/oz – prices continue to rise as ETF, central banks and other investors continue to support

• Gold ETF holdings are >100.4moz according to Bloomberg
• A broader aggregation of gold ETF holdings now shows 134moz in Gold ETF form in Assets Under Management.
• US dollar weakness is helping gold and all other metals higher as confidence in the US erodes with Trump threatening Chairman of the Federal Reserve.
• Outflows and diversification from US Treasuries and other investments continues to undermine the dollar as China and other BRICS nations move to internationalise their currencies.
• Technology and near-zero trading fees have attracted so many new investors are buying gold and silver and trading between the two that it is having a major impact on even this mammoth market.
• Positive momentum is also serving to encourage more buying.
• Quantum vulnerability is prompting Bitcoin and other crypto holders to switch to gold on concerns new quantum computers may be used to break ECDSA which secures Bitcoin wallets. Estimates suggest ~20-50% of all Bitcoin ~4-10m coin may be vulnerable to future quantum attacks, particularly in older wallets.
• Iran: concerns over the potential for war with Iran has raised ‘risk-off’ trade. Many Iranian’s may be converting the Rial into gold in case they need to flee the country.

Tin climbs to $56,575 overnight – next stop $60,000/t

• Tin prices continue to push to new highs on the prospects for stronger demand and the inability of mines to keep pace
• Tin is a relatively minor market when compared with copper and aluminium and
• Our contacts suspect there may be some short positions to stop out as tin prices rise to unexpected high levels.
• LME tin inventory is just 7,065t.
• Global refined tin consumption was ~375,000t last year rising to ~430,000t if unrefined tin is included.  
• Growth is driven by renewed growth in semiconductors and solder for related electronics.
• China consumes more than half the world’s tin with solder accounting for ~53% of global demand.
• Forecasts see demand rising to >1mt pa 2050 on forecasts for further electrification of economies and global growth in electronics.
• Solar ribbon now account for ~20% of solder demand with particularly strong demand in this area.
• The ITA reckons the global PV industry already consumes 60,000tpa with China manufacturing >85% of all solar panels.
• Tin demand is expected to rise to >70,000tpa by 2035 despite some thrifting of tin in solar ribbon manufacture.
• Tin use in lead-acid grids which are widely used for start-stop and 48-volt systems in EVs was forecast to rise to ~36,000t pa last year.
• Tin consumption in ADAS ‘Advanced Driver Assistance Systems’ is also seeing significant growth driven by the increasing electrification and electronification of vehicles.
• ADAS features, such as LiDAR, radar, cameras, and automated braking require complex electronics, PCBs and sensors all use on tin-based solders.

Worth reading - Mineral War: China’s Quest for Weapons of Mineral Destruction by Tomasz Nadrowski

• https://www.amazon.co.uk/Mineral-War-Chinas-Weapons-Destruction/dp/B0GHDYRLZK

We are now in a new commodities cycle: on VOX: https://www.voxmarkets.com/articles/we-are-now-in-a-new-commodities-cycle-says-sp-angel-s-john-meyer-277006a

• Podcast: The Vox Markets Podcast / Mining Matters: We are now in a new commodities cycle, says SP Angel's John Meyer

IG TV - Copper, Silver and the New Commodities Cycle | Commodity Markets Weekly:  https://youtu.be/mdU5EEjc3Z8?si=BjTihCKKoeKlYHYn

Mkango - BBC Radio 4 at 6:16am – CEO, Will Dawes on Mkango and UK Critical Minerals strategy

• https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/brand/b006qj9z

Currencies

US$1.1856/eur vs 1.1842/eur previous. Yen 154.78/$ vs 158.98/$. SAr 16.050/$ vs 16.036/$. $1.367/gbp vs $1.365/gbp. 0.691/aud vs 0.691/aud. CNY 6.957/$ vs 6.957/$

Dollar Index 97.23 vs 98.42 previous

Economics

Glencore tops the list of European M&A targets for 2026, Bloomberg survey shows.

• The Company that is in talks with Rio regarding a potential deal was mentioned eight times in a survey of 30 risk-arbitrage desks, traders and analysts.
• Followed by Abivax, BP, Delivery Hero, easyJet and Great Portland Estates.

US/Iran – The situation with Iran is “in flux”, President Trump commented as “big armada” was sent to the region.

• “We have a big armada next to Iran. Bigger than Venezuela”.
• US is pursuing Iran to accept a series of terms of a potential deal.
• US officials demand the removal of all enriched uranium from Iran, a cap on its stock of long range missiles, a chance in Iran’s policy of supporting proxies in the region and a ban on independent uranium enrichment in the country.

China – Industrial production prints first increase in three months in December with full year growth coming in at marginal 0.6%.

• Industrial Production (%yoy, Dec / Nov / Est): 5.3 / -13.1 / NA

Japan – Yen volatility remains strong with 1pp swings recorded this morning and the currency trading around 154.

• Bond yields continued to trade at multi decade highs.
• The nation to carry snap general elections on February 8.

South Korea – Trump threatened to hike tariffs on SK imports to 25% from 15% arguing the nation is slow in agreeing a trade deal.

• Hyundai shares dropped as much as 6.1% on the news before recouping some of losses as markets discounted odds Trump would follow up on his threats.

Ukraine – The US administration suggested Ukraine needs to first give up its eastern territories to get security guarantees, according to people familiar with discussions.

• Washington also suggested it would promise Ukraine more weapons to bolster its peacetime army in exchange for ceding the Donbas region to Russia.
• Ukraine wants to confirm security guarantees before it gives up land.

Venezuela - Interim president Delcy Rodríguez says ‘Enough orders from Washington’

• The interim president says ‘let Venezuelan politics resolve our differences and internal conflicts’ (AP)
• Ms Rodriguez says her government will take up long-standing disputed with Washington ‘face to face’ through Bolivarian diplomacy. (Xinhua)
• Sounds like Trump is pushing just a little too fast and hard on US demands.

Precious metals:

Gold US$5,077/oz vs US$5,096/oz previous

   Gold ETFs 100.4moz vs 100.4moz previous

Platinum US$2,706/oz vs US$2,880/oz previous

Palladium US$2,011/oz vs US$2,084/oz previous

Silver US$111.0/oz vs US$108.8/oz previous

   Silver ETFs 842.6moz vs 844.4moz previous

Rhodium US$10,600/oz vs US$10,325/oz previous

Base metals:   

Copper US$13,051/t vs US$13,126/t previous

Aluminium US$3,164/t vs US$3,186/t previous

Nickel US$18,505/t vs US$18,755/t previous

Zinc US$3,322/t vs US$3,298/t previous

Lead US$2,027/t vs US$2,033/t previous

Tin US$55,600/t vs US$53,520/t previous

Energy:

Oil US$65.2/bbl vs US$65.7/bbl previous

• Crude oil prices edged lower as a key Black Sea export terminal was brought back online and on reports that production will shortly restart at Kazakhstan’s giant Tengiz oilfield following a fire.
• Baker Hughes reported flat 2025 revenues y/y and commented it is shifting its offerings toward data centres and LNG alongside oil and gas production, which has helped offset declines in its oilfield services and equipment business.

Natural Gas €40.1/MWh vs €41.8/MWh previous

Uranium Futures $89.3/lb vs $88.8/lb previous

Bulk:   

Iron Ore 62% Fe Spot (Singapore) US$103.9/t vs US$103.6/t

Chinese steel rebar 25mm US$466.0/t vs US$466.1/t

HCC FOB Australia US$233.0/t vs US$233.0/t

Thermal coal swap Australia FOB US$110.0/t vs US$112.8/t

Other:  

Cobalt LME 3m US$56,290/t vs US$56,290/t

NdPr Rare Earth Oxide (China) US$98,820/t vs US$96,670/t

Lithium carbonate 99% (China) US$23,645/t vs US$23,646/t

China Spodumene Li2O 6%min CIF US$2,325/t vs US$2,265/t

Ferro-Manganese European Mn78% min US$1,035/t vs US$1,035/t

China Tungsten APT 88.5% FOB US$1,278/mtu vs US$1,249/mtu

China Tantalum Concentrate 30% CIF US$113/lb vs US$112/mtu

China Graphite Flake -194 FOB US$410/t vs US$410/t

Europe Vanadium Pentoxide 98% US$5.4/lb vs US$5.3/lb

Europe Ferro-Vanadium 80% US$24.5/kg vs US$24.5/kg

China Ilmenite Concentrate TiO2 US$261/t vs US$261/t

US Titanium Dioxide TiO2 >98% US$2,908/t vs US$2,908/t

China Rutile Concentrate 95% TiO2 US$1,128/t vs US$1,127/t

Spot CO2 Emissions EUA Price US$65.1/t vs US$65.1/t

Brazil Potash CFR Granular Spot US$367.5/t vs US$367.5/t

Germanium China 99.99% US$3,025.0/kg vs US$3,025.0/kg

China Gallium 99.99% US$390.0/kg vs US$390.0/kg

EV and Battery news

EV sales overtake petrol-only sales in EU for first time in December

• EV sales in Europe overtook petrol-only car sales for the first time in December 2025.
• Overall car registrations in the EU, UK and EFTA grew by about 7.6% to 1.2m in December, with total registrations near their highest level in five years, according to data from the European Automobile Manufacturers Association.
• Petrol vehicles accounted for 22.5% of December registrations, with pure battery EV sales accounting for 22.6%.
• For the whole of 2025, battery EVs accounted for 17.4% of sales. hybrid and plug-in hybrid vehicles accounted for 34.5% and 9.4% respectively.

Volkswagen to recall almost 45,000 EVs over potential battery fire risk

• The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) has announced that VW will  recall 44,551 ID.4 EVs due to potential fire risks related to their batteries.
• Most of the vehicles are being recalled due to high voltage batteries that have an increase chance of overheating and catching fire.
• A small number of the vehicles in the recall are at risk of catching fire due to misaligned battery cell electrodes.

Company News:

Allied Gold (AAUC CN) C$43.4, Mkt Cap C$5.4bn – C$5.5bn all-cash offer from Zijin Gold

• Allied Gold, diversified African gold producer, reports it has agreed an acquisition from Zijin Gold.
• Zijin will pay C$44/share, valuing the Company at C$5.5bn equity value.
• The premium to 30-day VWAP was 27%.
• Zijin notes that Allied’s Sadiola and Kurmuk are ‘generational assets which we expect to provide multi-decade production.’
• Zijin highlights their ‘strategy of acquiring high-quality gold assets and expands our presence in Africa.’
• Allied produced 375-400koz in 2025 and expected to produce 600koz in 2026.
• Allied has completed the construction of the Kurmuk mine in Ethiopia, expecting annual gold production of 240kozpa over >15 year LOM.
• Sadiola has a target mine life of >20 years and average expected annual production of 300kozpa

Bradda Head (BHL LN) 1.75p, Mkt Cap £6.6m – Expanding its Arizona lithium exploration holdings

• Bradda Head reports that it has secured an option agreement with Rio Tinto’s subsidiary, Kennecott Exploration, over the Whistlejacket Project in Arizona located around 140km northwest of Phoenix and “11 km from the Company's existing Basin asset”.
• The option allows Bradda Head Lithium to acquire “up to a 60% legal and beneficial interest in the Whistlejacket project in Arizona”.
• Bradda Head Lithium says that the project, which covers ~4,486 acres (1,815 hectares) “represents a compelling opportunity to expand its hard rock lithium project portfolio in Arizona … which currently includes its nearby existing San Domingo Project and to continue exploration drilling that could lead to an economic lithium spodumene resource in one of the best jurisdictions in the world for mining projects”.
• The company can acquire an initial 51% interest in the project, around 80km from the San Domingo project area, with exploration expenditure “of not less than US$ 750,000 in the first year … and up to a total of US$ 5.5 million in the first three years”.
• The project interest can be increased to 60% by spending “a further US$ 12 million over a further 3-year period” with $3.75m in each of the first two years (years 4 and 5) followed by $4.5m in the sixth year.
• Noting that all the “exploration dollars allocated towards Whistlejacket will go directly into the ground” Executive Chair, Ian Stalker, said that subject to shareholder approval, the Whistlejacket Project “will be a fabulous acquisition for the Company which we are excited to add to our lithium portfolio and plan on commencing exploration as soon as possible”.
• He said that it “fits exceptionally well with the Company's exploration model and advancements over the past three years at San Domingo, a mere 80 km to the southeast”.

Empire Metals* (EEE LN) 41p, Mkt Cap £292m – Continued flowsheet optimisation at Scoping Study due 2026

• Empire Metals provides an update on the Pitfield titanium project in WA, as it works towards Scoping Study this year.
• Company has been conducting further metallurgical test work, with highlights including:
  • High levels of gangue mineral rejection via flotation test work
  • Potential for whole-of-ore flotation to replace gravity and flotation, generating a 34% TiO2 concentrate with 70% recoveries.
  • Successful use of atmospheric sulphuric acid leaching of concentrate, utilising lower temperatures and simpler equipment than acid baking.
• Going forward, Empire’s focus is on optimising the product finishing stage, with potential to produce both an anatase and rutile pigment product.
• Empire also notes it sees the potential to produce a feedstock suitable for Ti metal production.
• Further testing in 1Q26 will include large-scale metallurgical batch testing, to generate concentrate for testing the hydrometallurgical flowsheet and to support marketing with downstream users.
• The quarter will see Empire further refine its flowsheet as it looks to begin continuous pilot testing.
• Continuous pilot testing will enable the beginning of engineering and desktop studies to support the Scoping Study due later in 2026
• Management also report they have signed a non-binding Cooperation Agreement with the Mid West Port Authority for future port access.

Conclusion: Empire continues to meticulously explore their various processing options for the large-scale, multi-generational Pitfield titanium project. Continuous pilot testing is planned with larger-scale concentrate samples. This will enable both the beginning of Scoping Study engineering work, but also open the door to end-users and product qualification checks. This will be a catalyst-rich year for Empire, with the Scoping Study a major derisking event in our eyes.

*SP Angel acts as Nomad and Broker to Empire Metals

Fulcrum Metals (FMET LN) 6.13p, Mkt Cap £8m – Auger drilling results from Ontario mine tailings project

• Fulcrum Metals reports that auger drilling at its Teck Hughes Mine tailings project near Kirkland Lake, Ontario has shown better than expected gold equivalent assays which incorporate “gold, silver, tellurium and gallium results from multi-element assays from the first 94 auger holes”.
• “Assay results for the remaining 65 auger holes should be received over the next few weeks”.
• The auger drilling provides data for an “MRE, a 43-101 technical report and a phase 4 PFS level economic assessment.”
• It also recovers material for Fulcrum’s partner, Extrakt, to test its “proprietary cyanide free leach and solid-liquid separation TNSTM technologies to provide detailed metallurgical data to process the tailings”.
• CEO, Ryan Mee, said that the “increased grade, with the excellent Extrakt phase 3 test preliminary leaching results released in December significantly enhance the economic potential of the Teck Hughes tailings project”.

Ionic Rare Earths (IXR AU) A$0.6, Mkt Cap A$125m – Offer in Principle for a £12m UK government grant

• The Company reports an Offer in Principle for a £12m grant from the UK government.
• The grant will support the delivery of a commercial magnet recycling facility in Belfast, UK.
• The grant is offered to the Company’s wholly owned subsidiary, Ionic Technologies.
• The grant is provided under the UK DRIVE35 Funding Programme designed to promote zero-emission vehicle technologies and funded by the Department for Business and Trade (DBT) and delivered in partnership with the Advanced Propulsion Centre UK (APC), and Innovate UK.
• Government support is part of the Critical Minerals Strategy targeting producing 10% of the nation’s mineral needs domestically and 20% through recycling by 2035).
• Currently demand is covered only for 6% from local production.
• Ionic Technologies is developing a recycling facility producing separated REOs (400tpa) including valuable magnet REOs (NdPrTbDy) from scrap using patented long loop recycling tech.
• The Company will now progress further due diligence with DBT and APC to access the funding.
• In parallel, the team is advancing discussions with interested parties regarding the balance of the £85m project funding to support FID.

Pallas Resources* (Private) – Initial drilling shows shallow copper mineralisation in central Kazakhstan

• Privately owned Pallas Resources which is exploring its wholly-owned Satpayev copper project in central Kazakhstan reports that its initial drilling has confirmed “shallow, flat-lying supergene copper” over an area of 400mx150m and remains open towards the northwest.
• Pallas Resources holds 18,000km2 land holdings in the Chu Sarysu Basin, which it describes as the “3rd largest sediment-hosted copper basin globally … [and has] …strategic JVs with Ivanhoe Mines and First Quantum Minerals”.
• Results highlighted from its 2025, 4,800m programme of aircore-type drilling include:
  • An intersection of 29.5m at an average grade of 3.04% copper from a depth of 17.5m in hole STP25-KK058; and
  • An intersection of 31.0m at an average grade of 2.78% copper from a depth of 21m in hole STP25-KK079; and
  • An intersection of 30.5m at an average grade of 2.73% copper from a depth of 18.5m in hole STP25-KK063; and
  • An intersection of 21.5m at an average grade of 2.71% copper from a depth of 17.5m in hole STP25-KK068; and
• The company says that “Drilling intersected supergene copper oxides and native copper from shallow depths (starting at ~6 m), with assays returning broad, near-surface mineralised intervals supporting a shallow supergene enrichment zone”.
• Pallas Resources comments that its drilling was “constrained locally by the drilling method drilling to refusal, limiting penetration into the underlying bedrock in places and leaving any potential underlying primary system untested at this stage”.
• The company is planning follow up work in 2026 including extending its “shallow drilling for additional near-surface supergene mineralisation and to undertake deeper RC and/or diamond drilling designed to test the underlying primary sulphide copper system at depth”.

* SP Angel analyst(s) hold shares in Pallas Resources

Pasofino Gold (VEIN CN) C$0.9, Mkt Cap C$131m – Cash offer for Mansa (51% shareholder)

• The Company received a cash offer at C$0.90 from Mansa Resources.
• The offer represents a ~23% to the last close.
• The offer values Pasofino at ~C$142m on fully diluted equity basis.
• Mansa would also lend up to US$10m (12% interest) to Pasofino to cover working capital needs during the interim period.
• Mansa holds 51% of Pasofino.
• Additionally, other shareholders and directors/senior executives representing ~25% advised to vote in favour of the transaction.
• The transaction is expected to close 1Q26.
• The Company is developing the Dugbe Gold Project in Liberia and is currently in the process of updating the 2022 FS.
• The Project hosts 3.9moz (@1.3g/t) in resources and 2.8moz (@1.3g/t) in reserves.
• FS 2022 envisaged A US$435m project with an open pit mining operation feeding 5mtpa CIL plant delivering ~172kozpa over 14y at ~$1,000/oz AISC.
• Post tax NPV5 and IRR $1.7bn and 54% at $2,700/oz.
• Pasofino received a default notice form the government of Liberia regarding the Mineral Development Agreement in late December 2025.
• The government argued the Company failed to meet a number of obligations under the MDA including certain payments and activities.
• The Company had 60d from the moment the notice is received (16 December) to address the issues of risk termination of the MDA.

Conclusion: Pasofino to get acquired by its major shareholder (Mansa 51%) with a ~23% premium offered. The price values Dugbe at ~US$30/oz and ~US$40/oz for its resources and reserves in the ground with low valuations partly reflective of a default notice recently received from Government of Liberia regarding the project’s MDA.

Phoenix Copper* (PXC LN) 2.15p, Mkt Cap £7.1m – Short-term loan refinancing

(Phoenix holds 80% of the Empire mining property in Idaho)

• Phoenix Copper provides an update on their short-term loan facility from Riverfort Global Opportunities.
• The company has previously reported its $1.96m drawdown of the $2.1m convertible loan facility with Indigo Capitalised and its use of these funds, “in part, to repay the balance of the Facility” with Riverfort.
• Following it’s payment Phoenix Copper “was informed by Riverfort that the repayment should have been classified as a prepayment … [and today’s announcement confirms that it] … is now in discussions with Riverfort to determine whether there is a further financial obligation for the Company, pursuant to the terms of the Facility”.

Conclusion: Holding discussions with Riverfort Global to clarify the short-term loan facility

*SP Angel acts as Nomad to Phoenix Copper

Power Metal Resources* (POW LN) 15.5p, Mkt Cap £18m – Gold exploration to recommence at Tati Gold Project, Botswana

• Power Metal Resources provides an update on its Tati Project JV with Tuscan Resources.
• POW entered into an agreement with Tuscan in 2024 giving Tuscan the right to earn 75% in the licence.
• Tuscan expects to receive access to the licence area imminently, to begin the planned work programme.
• Drilling at site is planned for March/April, following the current rainy season.
• Tuscan is planning a 600m RAB programme at 60m depths to follow mineralisation down-dip.

*SP Angel acts as Nomad and Broker to Power Metal Resources

Sylvania Platinum (SLP LN) 125p, Mkt cap £316m – Q2 sets 2nd successive quarterly production record

• Sylvania Platinum reports operating and financial results for the quarter to 31st December 2025.
• Production of 24.642oz of 4 PGE was a quarterly record, marginally surpassing the record 24,522oz of the preceding quarter and bringing H1 production to 49,164oz.
• Quarterly PGM output resulted from the processing of ~369kt at an average grade of 3.6g/t and a recovery rate of 57.6% (Q1 FY2026 340kt at an average grade of 3.8g/t at an average recovery of 58.5%).
• Costs on an all-in sustaining cost (AISC) basis were US$27,554/oz (4E) bringing H1 costs to $24,494/oz.
• The company reports a quarterly adjusted net profit of US$21.9m (Q1 US$17.0m) and a closing cash balance of ~US$54.0m.
• PGM sales generated revenue of US$43.6m (Q1 US$35.0m) reflecting a 22% increase in the basket price to US$2.374/oz, including base metal by-product revenues and a US$0.65m contribution from chrome where the Thaba JV project “successfully dispatched … The first Chrome and PGM concentrate products … during Q2 FY2026”.

LSE Group Starmine awards for Reuters Polls 2025 / 2024 commodity forecasting:

No1 for Precious Metals: CY 2025

No.1 in Precious Metals: Q1 2025

No.1 in Precious Metals: CY 2024

No.2 in Base Metals: CY 2024

Analysts

John Meyer –John.Meyer@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0490

Simon Beardsmore – Simon.Beardsmore@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0484

Sergey Raevskiy –Sergey.Raevskiy@spangel.co.uk - 0203 470 0474

Arthur Parish – Arthur.Parish@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0476

Sales

Richard Parlons –Richard.Parlons@spangel.co.uk - 0203 470 0472

Abigail Wayne –Abigail.Wayne@spangel.co.uk - 0203 470 0534

Rob Rees –Rob.Rees@spangel.co.uk - 0203 470 0535

Grant Barker – Grant.Barker@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0471

George Krokos - george.krokos@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0486

Prince Frederick House

35-39 Maddox Street

London, W1S 2PP

*SP Angel are the No1 integrated nomad and broker by number of mining brokerage clients on AIM according to the AIM Advisers Ranking Guide (joint brokerships excluded)

+SP Angel employees may have previously held, or currently hold, shares in the companies mentioned in this note.

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