Peel Hunt has set a price target of 185p for Tharisa (THS ), following a fourth quarter update which showed Tharisa hitting platinum and chrome production guidance at its operations in South Africa. 

“Tharisa has reported full year 2026 production in the middle of guidance ranges, with 154,000 ounces PGM and 1.56 million tonne chrome concentrates,” wrote Peel Hunt’s Peter Mallin-Jones. 

“The realised PGM basket price in Q4 was US$160 per ounce higher than we had expected, implying a 1% increase to our revenue estimates,” he added. 

“Overall output looks in line,” continued Peel Hunt. 

“Relative to our expectations, PGM output was 1% lower and chrome output 1% higher, a function of grades and ore mixes. PGM recoveries were better than we had expected, and the recovered mix of PGMs seems slightly more in favour of the high-value rhodium and iridium than is usually the case, something we ascribe to properties of the purchased third-party ore.” 

Tharisa has guided for PGM output of between 150,000 and 170,000 ounces next year, and chrome concentrates output of between 1.5 million and 1.65 million tonnes. 

Meanwhile, Karo, the new project in Zimbabwe, and the underground development at the existing Tharisa mine are both making significant strides forward, and are tracking schedules and budgets. 

“At Karo the first ore samples will also be mined this quarter, allowing for further refinements of the process plant parameters, likely including the potential for base metal recoveries in phase 2,” said Peel Hunt. 

“We see Tharisa shares trading at 3.5x FY 27E EBITDA of US$221 million, lower than our FY 26E estimate of US$254 million, given higher energy cost pressures and softer PGM price expectations, although we note that tech-related uses of PGMs are driving prices over our expected levels. Longer term, we see EBITDA settling at around US$400 million a year from the underground transition at Tharisa and the Karo development. This is a significant step forward from our FY26–27E estimates. With Karo just 12 months away, we believe the present share price presents a real opportunity.”

As to valuation, the broker is upbeat. 

“Offering some 80% growth in group EBITDA over the next 24 months, we believe the Tharisa share looks cheap,” continued Peel Hunt. 

“As the Karo build accelerates now that it is fully funded, we see regular updates bringing that EBITDA growth into reality. We reiterate our buy recommendation and 185p target price.” 

 

View from Vox

 

Peel Hunt's target is considerably ahead of the current 123p price, and has success on several fronts built into it. But worth bearing in mind that Tharisa has now built up a long track record of production, and has shown itself easily capable of playing at these levels. On that basis, the price target doesn't look aggressive at all.