In an uncertain world, investors are increasingly searching for 'Trump-resilient' businesses with strong market positions, improving profit margins, and secular tailwinds.
Enter Mpac Group (MPAC) - a 'One Stop Shop' for all things high-speed packaging and factory automation - who today posted record results with turnover, adjusted PBT, and EPS coming in at £122.4m (+7.2%), £10.6m (49%) and 35.2p (+34%) respectively, delivering an outstanding 63% jump in the orderbook to £118.5m, alongside 9.8% EBIT margins (6.8% LY) and a 10.7% rise in new equipment sales to £91.2m.
Better still, all three H2'24 acquisitions (CSi palletising (€56m), Boston Conveyor & Automation ($17m) and SIGA Vision) are performing 'in line' with plan and being successfully integrated.
In fact, by combining the 55% equipment orderbook cover with £50m+ pa of repeat service revenues, I estimate there is now around 75%-80% of visibility to hit Shore Capital Partners' FY'25 turnover target of £218m (+77%).
Sure, Dec'24 net debt (pre IFRS leases) climbed to -£37.5m, yet this represents a modest forward EBITDA multiple of 1.6x and reflects the 3 M&A deals in H2'24.
Elsewhere, order intake in the US (<30% of group) has been a little slow in Q1'25 (41% equipment book-to-bill ratio) due to the uncertainty caused by the import tariffs, although this should be a temporary phenomenon and the Board is closely monitoring the situation. Additionally, there remain good prospects in both Mpac Group's short-cycle service division and the pipeline. Plus, no orders have been cancelled as a result of the tariff disruption.
CEO Adam Holland commenting "I am delighted to announce 2024 full-year performance in line with expectations, delivering record levels of revenue, significantly improved operational performance, and a record opening order book for 2025. Our equipment sits at the heart of our customers’ operations, assembling and packaging the products that their businesses produce. We will continue to monitor the economic position closely, but at this time we are on track to meet full-year expectations."
With regards to valuation, MPAC at 420p trades on undemanding EV/EBITDA and PE multiples of 8.6x and 9.5x, augmented by a >10% cashflow yield - based on Shore Capital Partners' FY25 estimates of adjusted EBITDA, PBT, and EPS of £24.0m, £17.8m, and 44.2p.
Finally, longer term, global manufacturing is undergoing a seismic shift - replacing cheap offshore labour with fully automated 'smart' factories, perhaps even eventually powered by agentic AI. Mpac Group is at the heart of this transformation - therefore, further out there is no reason the group can't achieve its 'through cycle' goals of 10%+ pa organic growth and 10%+ EBIT margins.
Panmure Liberum has a target price of 800p/share, with Equity Development at 865p.
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